Remnant Low Rina.

[HurricaneJosh]

The color-enhanced IR kind of looks like crap right now.

[cgwx]

Here is my forecast...

Read more and see the rest of my graphics in my blog... http://tropwx.com/openblog/index.php/2011/10/25/hurricane-rina-seeks-yucatan-and-then-floridacuba

[sugaree]

The color-enhanced IR kind of looks like crap right now.

I thought so too, but the eye has revolved back into the center within the last hour or so.

[Chicago Storm]

Latest update shows improvement once again...

[Chicago Storm]

New mission in, with it's first pass (NW-SE)...

Pressure up a bit to 969mb. Max FL of 101kts and max SFMR of 92kts. The MW image in the previous post showed improvement to the structure of the system, and now recon reports that the eye wall is indeed closed.

URNT12 KNHC 260606

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011

A. 26/05:42:10Z

B. 17 deg 30 min N

084 deg 57 min W

C. 700 mb 2830 m

D. 92 kt

E. 359 deg 9 nm

F. 094 deg 101 kt

G. 360 deg 10 nm

H. 969 mb

I. 7 C / 3051 m

J. 18 C / 3039 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C24

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 0618A RINA OB 08

MAX FL WIND 101 KT N QUAD 05:39:00Z

[CUmet]

New dropsonde in the east eyewall reported 97 kt surface wind. This is the third time in the past 24 hours that there's been a dropsonde report of greater than 96 kt surface winds. Although it's pretty unusual to see the winds being maximized right at the surface quite to this extent, I think this could very well be a minimal Cat 3 right now, and may have been for much of the past 24 hours.

[HurricaneJosh]

New dropsonde in the east eyewall reported 97 kt surface wind. This is the third time in the past 24 hours that there's been a dropsonde report of greater than 96 kt surface winds. Although it's pretty unusual to see the winds being maximized right at the surface quite to this extent, I think this could very well be a minimal Cat 3 right now, and may have been for much of the past 24 hours.

There you are!

What are your thoughts Re: track? Does it come ashore on the Yucatan?

[CUmet]

There you are!

What are your thoughts Re: track? Does it come ashore on the Yucatan?

NHC track is pretty much my best guess.

[U_Thant]

CNN geography FAIL.

[am19psu]

I'm still left of NHC and weaker. I'm thinking somewhere between Xelha and Punta Allen tomorrow afternoon as a moderate/strong Cat 1. The leftmost models have been winning over the last day or so and I think that will continue - since those models have had a better handle on the s/w over the Rockies. Shear should increase today and start a weakening trend prior to landfall.

[Sky-Chaser]

Just got tickets for a Yucatan chase the next few days...

maybe I'll see some of you guys out there?

[MN Transplant]

CNN geography FAIL.

Still up there, and now without the NHC map, making it even more confusing. And "barreling" is not quite what I think of with a west movement at 4 mph.

[ArtRosen]

Still up there, and now without the NHC map, making it even more confusing. And "barreling" is not quite what I think of with a west movement at 4 mph.

How dramatic would "crawling" be? Then people wouldn't think that there's an imminent threat to their lives and not click on the story and see all of CNN's advertisers' ads!

[Ed Lizard]

Every now and then I see hints of a banding eye try to form looking at the longer IR loops, but it still can't quite pull it off. Multi-sensor suggests I still have more time to wait.

[Srain]

Rina has seen its best days and looks like it will be down hill from here with increasing southerly shear. From the 10 AM disco:

SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR

IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT

OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE

HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A

FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO

THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE

GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72

HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

[Srain]

000

URNT12 KWBC 261614

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011

A. 26/1443Z

B. 17 DEG 48 MIN N

85 DEG 26 MIN W

C. NA

D. 61 KT

E. 071 DEG 7 NM

F. 160 DEG 81 KT

G. 068 DEG 9 NM

H. 982 MB

I. 12 C/2441 M

J. 18 C/2426 M

K. 14 C/NA

L. POORLY DEFINED

M. NA

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA2 0718A RINA OB 06

MAX FL WIND 81KT NE QUAD 1440Z<BR clear=all>

[dan88]

000 WTNT63 KNHC 261644 TCUAT3 HURRICANE RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1145 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED... RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...IN PLACE OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 85.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[Cypress]

I don't understand why, when the NHC earlier suggested that track was very closely tied to strength, they did not update the track after a dramatic decrease in strength ???

[wxmx]

I don't understand why, when the NHC earlier suggested that track was very closely tied to strength, they did not update the track after a dramatic decrease in strength ???

Their track was assuming a weaker system than the GFDL depicted

[Cypress]

Their track was assuming a weaker system than the GFDL depicted

ok, well that makes perfect sense then - thanks !

[Srain]

000

URNT12 KNHC 261818

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011

A. 26/17:50:00Z

B. 18 deg 00 min N

085 deg 41 min W

C. 700 mb 2969 m

D. 63 kt

E. 063 deg 3 nm

F. 151 deg 72 kt

G. 062 deg 6 nm

H. EXTRAP 976 mb

I. 11 C / 3048 m

J. 22 C / 3045 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 13 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 06

MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 17:48:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

SFC WINDS REPORTED ON EYE DROP WERE 31KTS

SFC PRESSURE REPORTED ON EYE DROP WAS 985MB

;

[Sky-Chaser]

Good day all,

000

URNT12 KNHC 261818

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011

A. 26/17:50:00Z

B. 18 deg 00 min N

085 deg 41 min W

C. 700 mb 2969 m

D. 63 kt

E. 063 deg 3 nm

F. 151 deg 72 kt

G. 062 deg 6 nm

H. EXTRAP 976 mb

I. 11 C / 3048 m

J. 22 C / 3045 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 13 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 06

MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 17:48:00Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

SFC WINDS REPORTED ON EYE DROP WERE 31KTS

SFC PRESSURE REPORTED ON EYE DROP WAS 985MB

;

Thank GOD for refundable tickets (MIA to CUN I just cancelled).

It KEEPS weakening!!

[hm8]

Rina from yesterday...

Some really nice transverse banding

And some Rapid Scan eye candy:

[wxmx]

The downgrade was harsh, but I think the weakening has leveled. Latest vortex is showing a pressure fall to 977, and several SFMR readings above 75kts (76-78)...plus convection has never left the center. Since it was a very small core, it probably collapsed, hence the dramatic weakening, but it's probably building a new core, though conditions are not ideal to expect a closed eyewall soon, or at all, but at least a partial decent eyewall just before landfall isn't far fetched.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS

NOW 310/5.

lol

[wxmx]

The recent burst of convection is mostly over and just to the south of the center, which is a good signal, taking into account that the shear vector comes from the south...even the latest sat image (21:15z) shows that outflow over the southern half is alive. I still think weakening will be a bit slower than the official forecast with a small chance of a slight rebound in the short term if strong convection persists.

[Ed Lizard]

NHC discussion says its under 20 knots Southerly shear, but the coldest cloud tops are expanding to the South when viewed as a loop.

[wxmx]

NHC discussion says its under 20 knots Southerly shear, but the coldest cloud tops are expanding to the South when viewed as a loop.

Yep, it's a non classic display of southerly shear, convection is even a little lopsided to the south.

[phil882]

Yep, it's a non classic display of southerly shear, convection is even a little lopsided to the south.

This is pretty much the same thing that happend with Jova. It was experiencing southeasterly shear but the coldest cloud tops were located in the SE quadrant.

CUmet has posted extensively about this, but it has to do with dry air being advected into the core from the south. From what I understand when you still have a decently organized eyewall, thunderstorms rotate around the inner core very rapidly. Thus, even though the strongest convection is in the north quadrant, the fast rotational speed within the eyewall causes the cold cloud tops aloft from those thunderstorms in the N eyewall to rotate and be oriented 180 degrees to where they originated. Hense the lopsided appearance of the deep convection in the same direction the shear originates.

[Srain]

The G-IV mission is nearing an end (drop 22) and does suggest the upper air has moistened a bit N and W of Rina this evening. We will see if these slightly better UA conditions help maintain the strength of Rina as it makes its approach of the Yucatan.