am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro dissipates over the Yucatan by hour 60 Remnants head toward the Panhandle and get entrained into the baroclinic low over the SE at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 An intensifying hurricane tends to get smaller/slightly more compact with time. It's covered in Merrill (1984), using ROCI (radius of outermost closed isobar) as the size metric. It looks like in that paper Merrill is referring to a tightening of the isobars corresponding with a decrease in RMW and increase in maximum winds. This makes sense, as we often see the core of the cyclone tighten. I guess what I was more referring to was the overall satellite presentation, in which the outer cloud tops diminished as the center of the cyclone strengthened, which I believe to be slightly less common. Even if the ROCI decreases, an intensification is usually in conjunction with an increase in outflow and gives the appearance of a larger cyclone, although this is just something I have no proof of, just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 first pass: 970 mb, 90 kts SFMR unflagged. SURFACE DROPSONDE: 93 kts, 107 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 first pass: 970 mb, 90 kts SFMR unflagged. 83.0kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 83.0kts... I'm looking at this http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/ and dropsonde at surface says 107 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I'm looking at this http://tropicalatlan...on/URNT15/KNHC/ and dropsonde at surface says 107 mph. Reduction factor. I'll wait on the VDM before further speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I hate it when they do a NW/SE pass first...sigh. With that said, there should be some interesting numbers in the NE quad based off of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 251816 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/18:03:00Z B. 17 deg 19 min N 084 deg 15 min W C. 700 mb 2859 m D. 119 kt E. 337 deg 9 nm F. 077 deg 92 kt G. 337 deg 9 nm H. 972 mb I. 6 C / 3063 m J. 16 C / 3041 m K. 5 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. C17 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF306 0418A RINA OB 08 MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z CLOUDS IN EYE. OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL. ; Well then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Probably 95-100 kt on the next advisory. Very close to major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 251816 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/18:03:00Z B. 17 deg 19 min N 084 deg 15 min W C. 700 mb 2859 m D. 119 kt E. 337 deg 9 nm F. 077 deg 92 kt G. 337 deg 9 nm H. 972 mb I. 6 C / 3063 m J. 16 C / 3041 m K. 5 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. C17 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF306 0418A RINA OB 08 MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z CLOUDS IN EYE. OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL. ; Well then. Numbers don't lie unless corrected later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Does anyone know why they disregarded the dropsonde that recorded the 97 kt surface wind earlier around 0830z? I'm assuming they either didn't believe it given the much lower SFMR and flight level winds, or they thought the dropsonde didn't reach the surface, but the 987 mb surface pressure on that drop would suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Numbers don't lie unless corrected later. Looks like a mistake from whoever wrote it up: 180000 1728N 08419W 6961 02987 9890 +067 +037 078089 092 119 055 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Does anyone know why they disregarded the dropsonde that recorded the 97 kt surface wind earlier around 0830z? I'm assuming they either didn't believe it given the much lower SFMR and flight level winds, or they thought the dropsonde didn't reach the surface, but the 987 mb surface pressure on that drop would suggest otherwise. Educated guess... but it probably was caught in convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Looks like a mistake from whoever wrote it up: 180000 1728N 08419W 6961 02987 9890 +067 +037 078089 092 119 055 03 That's why I added the 'corrected later' statement. I saw that flagged ob and thought something looked fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 That's more believable... 000 URNT12 KNHC 251935 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/19:23:40Z B. 17 deg 20 min N 084 deg 16 min W C. 700 mb 2853 m D. 85 kt E. 034 deg 10 nm F. 122 deg 91 kt G. 034 deg 11 nm H. 972 mb I. 9 C / 3052 m J. 14 C / 3047 m K. 5 C / NA L. SMALL OPENINGS S M. C14 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF306 0418A RINA OB 14 MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z LOTS OF CLOUDS IN EYE. SOME TURBC IN EYEWALL OUTBOUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 From what I understand, the dry air prevents convection from forming in the outer bands, due to entrainment choking off the updrafts. If there was convection at outer radii, there would be PV generation which would expand the area of cyclonic PV, leading to a broader wind field and TC size. Hill and Lackmann (2009) discusses this in a lot further detail. Thanks for the reading material... The PV explanation makes logical sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Getting closer to that closed eyewall structure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Hmmm. I wonder... What's going to make Rina take a different path than Wilma did back in 2005? Of course, they're nowhere near the same strenghth, but what other features turned Wilma and slammed her into SE Florida vs. what features are going to take Rina into Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Getting closer to that closed eyewall structure... 40 mins later different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I wonder... What's going to make Rina take a different path than Wilma did back in 2005? Of course, they're nowhere near the same strenghth, but what other features turned Wilma and slammed her into SE Florida vs. what features are going to take Rina into Cuba? The Cold front in the US mid-section, ofcourse though, there was a senario in which made Rina rain it self out in the Yucatan without movement, an idiotic move, but thats what the models are showing at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Cloud top are cooling this evening and it appears the Rina will develop a tight inner core. While a 'clear' eye may never be observed with this cyclone, it does look to have a 'protected' inner core. G-IV data so far suggests some very dry air to the W of Rina, so that may be an issue as it makes its approach along the Coastal areas of the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 A full day of Rina: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 A full day of Rina: Too much shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Too much shear... um, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suwx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No apparent eye... Seems to have lost some of it's features from previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 000 URNT12 KWBC 252313 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011 A. 25/2248Z B. 17 DEG 26 MIN N 84 DEG 28 MIN W C. 700 MB 2830 M D. 103 KT E. 348 DEG 6 NM F. 061 DEG 103 KT G. 342 DEG 11 NM H. 966 MB I. 10 C/3030 M J. 20 C/3036 M K. 8 C/NA L. OPEN SE M. C17 N. 12345/7 O. 1/1 NM P. NOAA2 0518A RINA OB 08 MAX FL WIND 103 KT NW QUAD 2239Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 100KT SE QUAD 2245Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 No apparent eye... Seems to have lost some of it's features from previously. Too much dry air and mesovortices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Tiny, tiny eye on microwave images. Very vigorous convection in the eyewall, but the southeast quadrant is still lacking. This could really take off if the eyewall can close off, although the southwest quadrant has struggled much of the system's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Gamma adjust IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.