wxmx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Global and hurricane models are getting a little excited with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks good. If it lifts N, look out. The NW Caribbean is October's launching pad for wicked cyclones: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 12Z Euro has a TC strike near Ft Myers Friday AM- TS strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 18Z DSHIP suggests a 79kt threat to S Florida and the Keys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 tingles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 And of course the HWRF and GFDL never disappoint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 tingles It's hard not to feel some looking at how this is evolving in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Climo for october is a track nnw and then curving norheastward towards western Florida pretty much like the Euro and to a lesser extent 12Z GFS though the latter curves before it gets to the penninsula. The nov track is usually due northeast as the westerlies get farther to the south. I'm not sold on the splitting the gap track of the Eruo but guess it is one possibility. I think the Yucatan track is less likely but who knows. I just hope this is no Wilma imitator as dike around Lake Okeechobee still needs work. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Climo for october is a track nnw and then curving norheastward towards western Florida pretty much like the Euro and to a lesser extent 12Z GFS though the latter curves before it gets to the penninsula. The nov track is usually due northeast as the westerlies get farther to the south. I'm not sold on the splitting the gap track of the Eruo but guess it is one possibility. I think the Yucatan track is less likely but who knows. I just hope this is no Wilma imitator as dike around Lake Okeechobee still needs work. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ Agreed, climo for NW-Caribbean cyclones in Oct is N and then NE motion (a la Wilma 2005), but there some important exceptions-- for example, Richard 2010, Iris 2001, Keith 2000, Mitch 1998, Roxanne 1995, and Hattie 1961, a Cat 4 that devastated Belize (then British Honduras). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Agreed, climo for NW-Caribbean cyclones in Oct is N and then NE motion (a la Wilma 2005), but there some important exceptions-- for example, Richard 2010, Iris 2001, Keith 2000, Roxanne 1995, and Hattie 1961, a Cat 4 that devastated Belize (then British Honduras). I almost posted a line about remembering some exceptions as there have been exceptions. still right now I'd lean towards a climo like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I almost posted a line about remembering some exceptions as there have been exceptions. still right now I'd lean towards a climo like track. Sorry-- I know you know there are exceptions-- I just wanted to post 'em for the group. But, yeah, given the modeling, climo looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Sorry-- I know you know there are exceptions-- I just wanted to post 'em for the group. But, yeah, given the modeling, climo looks good right now. NO need to apologize. I suspect you know more of the climo than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Climo for october is a track nnw and then curving norheastward towards western Florida pretty much like the Euro and to a lesser extent 12Z GFS though the latter curves before it gets to the penninsula. The nov track is usually due northeast as the westerlies get farther to the south. I'm not sold on the splitting the gap track of the Eruo but guess it is one possibility. I think the Yucatan track is less likely but who knows. I just hope this is no Wilma imitator as dike around Lake Okeechobee still needs work. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ The lake has gone up almost a foot and half the past 2 weeks. Now at 12.63. As you said the dike needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 The lake has gone up almost a foot and half the past 2 weeks. Now at 12.63. As you said the dike needs work. It does and I'm guessing the lake will continue to rise during the next couple of days unless the corps start getting nervous about a possible tropical system. I'd like to see the lake at 13.6 or so by the end of the dry season. That would keep the lake hihg enough to fish easily during the spawn. A wilma type storm would really screw up the lake. Last year it finally had recovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Climo for october is a track nnw and then curving norheastward towards western Florida pretty much like the Euro and to a lesser extent 12Z GFS though the latter curves before it gets to the penninsula. The nov track is usually due northeast as the westerlies get farther to the south. I'm not sold on the splitting the gap track of the Eruo but guess it is one possibility. I think the Yucatan track is less likely but who knows. I just hope this is no Wilma imitator as dike around Lake Okeechobee still needs work. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ Hard to believe it's been 6 years since Wilma, still have those seiche images in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Hard to believe it's been 6 years since Wilma, still have those seiche images in my head. so do I and not in a good way since I know lots of people who own condos that would be in trouble if the dike ever failed. Such a storm would also pretty much uproot much of the vegetation which would really muddy the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 The cherry has shrunk quite a bit but it's up to 70% as of 8 pm EDT. The Outlook suggests a TD may form soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Lots of TCHP to it's north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 The 2 am EDT TWO keeps it at 70% and indicates that it's drifting N. Very curious to see if the 00Z Euro keeps with the Wilma-like, NE track across S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 70% seems quite high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 The 2 am EDT TWO keeps it at 70% and indicates that it's drifting N. Very curious to see if the 00Z Euro keeps with the Wilma-like, NE track across S FL. Nope. The Euro has switched into full-on Dr. No mode, weakens it to an open wave and keeps it south, at least through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Nope. The Euro has switched into full-on Dr. No mode, weakens it to an open wave and keeps it south, at least through 144 lolz How lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 OK, so the Euro totally lost the feature-- but the other models continue to show real enthusiasm in the 00Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 06z GFS brings it onshore near the Ni/Hn border without developing much. NHC brings down the probability a tad to 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 More wasted potential. My hope now resides in that 10 % area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Not giving up all hope yet. Glass half full optimism... Don't know if a Cat 3 is heading for Honduras in 3 days if anyone can actually make it down, but glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 More fail in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 On the bright side, it looks a little better defined, though, as it has been the theme the whole season, it has little modesty and is mostly naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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