Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Someone should post 54... that's the important time step. GFS is all cold and snow at that time. Per Wunderground, 850's are -2 to -4 north of a line from Toms River to Chester to Lancaster at hour 48. That line pushes northwards to Asbury Park-Trenton-Norristown-Lancaster at 51, and has basically the same shape at 54 but bulges a little more in Bucks County so that Trenton is slightly south, Doylestown is on that line, and Norristown is south. Everyone north of Millville-Smyrna is still <0 850's at hr 54, but in October a -1 or -2 is definitely not going to do it without help from evaporational cooling. However at 57, the -2 isotherm crashes back south and east, now running Seaside Heights-Millville. And Wunderground says around 0.5" that time interval. Then at 60 the 850 map is very similar with another 0.25" or so of QPF. So per the 12z Euro it looks like at least 0.70" is snow (based off when 850's are < -2C) although I'd still generally cut that in half for actual expected totals given that precipitation type will be a constant battle and ratios will be rather low, probably 8:1 or so. That said, I'll be plenty jealous if you guys crack 3" from an October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Has anyone looked at the Ukie off of the raleighwx site? Maybe I'm misinterpreting it, but it looks incredibly warm. I'm probably not understanding it properly. Ray, are you looking? Have not looked closely at the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Cut the Euro totals in half and that's basically the snow map I drew this morning... still think we'll have BL issues to deal with, so I'm not changing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Cut the Euro totals in half and that's basically the snow map I drew this morning... still think we'll have BL issues to deal with, so I'm not changing it Did you post that somewhere? Me dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Cut the Euro totals in half and that's basically the snow map I drew this morning... still think we'll have BL issues to deal with, so I'm not changing it Where is your map? Is it earlier in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 accucrackmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did you post that somewhere? Me dumb No. Because I was ashamed I was drawing a snow map on Oct 27 I guess I can post it now (probably too light up in NNE, but whatevs)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No. Because I was ashamed I was drawing a snow map on Oct 27 I guess I can post it now (probably too light up in NNE, but whatevs)... Your map says I should stay in Elko Travel plans still on hot standby... may purchase this evening since I'll still have 24 hours after that to cancel and get a full refund (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Cut the Euro totals in half and that's basically the snow map I drew this morning... still think we'll have BL issues to deal with, so I'm not changing it That six hour period of .65 qpf at MDT drops icy poos on your BL issues. But seriously, that was fun to look at and think about, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Oh and on Wunderground's snowfall product, everyone west of 95 gets at least 5". I highly doubt that verifies, but nonetheless that's what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That six hour period of .65 qpf at MDT drops icy poos on your BL issues. But seriously, that was fun to look at and think about, anyway. Going to laugh like a mad man when I bust low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Your map says I should stay in Elko Travel plans still on hot standby... may purchase this evening since I'll still have 24 hours after that to cancel and get a full refund (I think). Part of the letter "T" is in the 3-6" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 accucrackmap I must say that map actually highlights rather nicely where accumulating snow is likely to fall at this point based on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are we talking overnight with this storm or is this solely a daytime event? Also, accumulations on grassy surfaces only i would presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Are we talking overnight with this storm or is this solely a daytime event? Also, accumulations on grassy surfaces only i would presume? Mainly day, ending in the evening. Evening is probably the best time for accumulations... coldest air in place at that time as the sun sets. Mainly grassy areas though if it thumps all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EC boundary layer is a torch compared to the GFS, FYI. Much, much warmer at 18Z. 850s are the same, but 925 is above freezing at TTN at 18Z. By 0Z its close to the GFS at all levels but my guess is that heaviest precip is closer to 18Z than 0Z. I'm gonna wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mt Holly is hoisting the Winter Storm Watches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING... .AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think what's funny is that, as depicted, even if it has a tough time accumulating, the I-95 corridor might cash in ONCE AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is unbelievable. I'm so giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 EC boundary layer is a torch compared to the GFS, FYI. Much, much warmer at 18Z. 850s are the same, but 925 is above freezing at TTN at 18Z. By 0Z its close to the GFS at all levels but my guess is that heaviest precip is closer to 18Z than 0Z. I'm gonna wait. BL may cut things down a bit but if precip is heavy enough it ain't gonna matter how "torchy" the BL is...it was in the 40's on 10/28/08 before the thump hit and temps dropped into the 30's with moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BL may cut things down a bit but if precip is heavy enough it ain't gonna matter how "torchy" the BL is...it was in the 40's on 10/28/08 before the thump hit and temps dropped into the 30's with moderate to heavy snow. All of a sudden you're onboard? Perhaps, but I'd like a little more certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 In case it hasn't been posted yet, Mt Holly has a briefing package http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Go orange! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BL may cut things down a bit but if precip is heavy enough it ain't gonna matter how "torchy" the BL is...it was in the 40's on 10/28/08 before the thump hit and temps dropped into the 30's with moderate to heavy snow. Yup. Honestly, if this ends up being anything near what 10/28 was for our area, I consider it impressive. I truly can't imagine anything more occuring than what did that day. Therefore I'll keep my expectations low and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Dr. No (the euro) really has hung in there from 4+ days out against other models except for one run with the track of the storm. Even if it is not as much snow as predicted, somethings never change in the model world when it comes to east coast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm interested to see Glenn's forecast tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yesterday at this time I was hoping for a brief period of non-accumulating snow. What a turnaround... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 All of a sudden you're onboard? Perhaps, but I'd like a little more certainty. I couldn't remember 10/28's thickness level but that event is example #1 of "cold enough aloft, heavy enough precip = snow" in the textbook. This one may be straight out of that book. 10/28-29 is the new 12/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This is setting the bar way too high already for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I couldn't remember 10/28's thickness level but that event is example #1 of "cold enough aloft, heavy enough precip = snow" in the textbook. This one may be straight out of that book. 10/28-29 is the new 12/5. You may be right. But to quote Deniro in Backdraft, "I've seen this too many times before. I wanna make sure this torch doesn't walk. I'm gonna wait." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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