dryslotted Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good convo i got going on with myself here.. Thanks irishbri, you're a good man.. yeah, i know, you too ! Thanks for the overnight posts Bri, they were a good read this morning...It doesn't look like this system has enough time to get cranked up enough to produce any meaningful winds except at the beaches. Hoping to avoid wind-driven heavy rain here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB honking for the most destructive snow of the winter with effects similar to Itrene in the I-95 area. 3-6" locally 10" 75 miles either side of a line for north central MD to Boston. He's really hanging it out there this time... I know most people are mystified by some of his honking, but he seems to be out on his own with this dire of a prediction. Can anyone help me understand why he thinks this? Loaded question I know, but I am serious...Also, is the "most destructive snow of the winter" quote accurate. It's puzzling since, ya know, we haven't actually played out the winter yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know most people are mystified by some of his honking, but he seems to be out on his own with this dire of a prediction. Can anyone help me understand why he thinks this? Loaded question I know, but I am serious...Also, is the "most destructive snow of the winter" quote accurate. It's puzzling since, ya know, we haven't actually played out the winter yet... He is really banking on the Euro solution with cold air getting all the way to coastal plain... The reason he thinks it will be the most destructive is because of the leaves still on the trees (i.e. heavier load causing branch failure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 He is really banking on the Euro solution with cold air getting all the way to coastal plain... The reason he thinks it will be the most destructive is because of the leaves still on the trees (i.e. heavier load causing branch failure). Hmmm. I guess if you cry wolf enough times, there's bound to actually be a wolf there sooner or later. I don't think this is that time, but we'll see. Maybe this system surprises us with more strength the way Irene surprised with the short term weakening/track changes... I wouldn't expect even a coating in SNJ, but man it would be nice to see flakes flying again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB honking for the most destructive snow of the winter with effects similar to Itrene in the I-95 area. 3-6" locally 10" 75 miles either side of a line for north central MD to Boston. He's really hanging it out there this time... Haha oh JB. Just made my day though.I don't get the whole "either side" thing. Wouldn't it most likely be to the west of that line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 FWIW, JB's forecast isn't the most likely outcome, imo, but it's still possible. I wouldn't throw him out totally yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I know most people are mystified by some of his honking, but he seems to be out on his own with this dire of a prediction. Can anyone help me understand why he thinks this? Loaded question I know, but I am serious...Also, is the "most destructive snow of the winter" quote accurate. It's puzzling since, ya know, we haven't actually played out the winter yet... Quote- but with what may be turning out to be a multi million dollar noreaster with treesnapping snow and and wind, things are certainly looking like that idea has merit. While this may not be the heaviest snow of the season DC to Bos, if I am right it will be the most damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully this isn't a dumb question, but is there a good possibility of any accumulating snow without it being elevation dependent with this storm system? I'm hearing a lot being thrown out that it's mostly just elevation. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can anyone tell me how you determine (using model output and other info) where a deformation band sets up? I've seen people alluding to that over the years, but it seems very smoke and mirrors to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks for the overnight posts Bri, they were a good read this morning...It doesn't look like this system has enough time to get cranked up enough to produce any meaningful winds except at the beaches. Hoping to avoid wind-driven heavy rain here... Thanks buddy. I saw everyone else was slacking, so i had my own overnigh party. It also helped i had to pick my brother up from a show @ the TLA on South St 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully this isn't a dumb question, but is there a good possibility of any accumulating snow without it being elevation dependent with this storm system? I'm hearing a lot being thrown out that it's mostly just elevation. Thanks. It's elevation, precipitation rate and distance from the sea. So yeah, the Lehigh Valley could see accumulating snow without being in the Poconos. Can anyone tell me how you determine (using model output and other info) where a deformation band sets up? I've seen people alluding to that over the years, but it seems very smoke and mirrors to me. It's probably easiest to see on QPF outputs. When you see a QPF max to the north wrapping around to northwest of the surface low, that's almost always deformation band precipitation. It's called a deformation band because there are usually SWrlies aloft and NErlies at the surface, creating a frontogenetic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can anyone tell me how you determine (using model output and other info) where a deformation band sets up? I've seen people alluding to that over the years, but it seems very smoke and mirrors to me. if you have the time, Skim through this link. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/presentations/frontogenesis_lmk2.pdf it's PDF, so go down to page 14. gives you a good idea what to expect and where it usually forms. Deform bands are usually found in mature cyclones in North America, mostly referred to in Nor'easters. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is digging more on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 JB honking for the most destructive snow of the winter with effects similar to Itrene in the I-95 area. 3-6" locally 10" 75 miles either side of a line for north central MD to Boston. He's really hanging it out there this time... are you a bell member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't know how to multiquote, but thanks to irishbri74 and am19psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 are you a bell member? He posted it on twitter, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM is digging more on 12z. Yeah, but still a bit too late to capture the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I don't know how to multiquote, but thanks to irishbri74 and am19psu Just hit the multiquote button on the posts and when you have collected all of them, just hit the add reply button. We're at 420 ft. where I live so i'm hoping that can help us out a little. I'm still not expecting much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 are you a bell member? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EC is definitely too warm at 18Z at TTN for anything but rain, though by 0Z it could be snowing. Most of the storm is done by then but not quite all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: 10/28/08, I recall a few snowflakes mixed in, but it was mostly rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seems to be quite a bit more digging on the 12Z GFS at 39 compared to 42 on 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This run is going to be wound up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS just blew my mind 10" for Philly and NW burbs? waiting on buying the snowblower untill some time in november looms as a monumental mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS just blew my mind 10" for Philly and NW burbs? That and the fact that even east of the Delaware gets painted with ~8" has me really scratching my head. I suppose anything's possible, but it seems highly unlikely to go down this way. All eyes towards the Euro now. The NYC thread is partying already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Courtesy of WeatherX 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks warmer in the beginning with the increased waa , but then appears to go to snow by 54. Surface is still warm though. GFS shows a nice ccb as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Can't believe no one posted the twister data clown maps for the 12z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HOLY CRAP AT THE UKIE! You know the Nam is on absolute crack when the Ukmet shows a bomb like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GGEM looks good. The low further east than the GFS and Euro but the precip field is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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