jrodd321 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z GFS coming in MUCH more amplified. Looking very interesting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 So it begins. GFS 0Z comes west for the weekend storm. My god, where have I seen this before!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z GFS coming in MUCH more amplified. Looking very interesting again. It definatly looks better. The low on the surface map is still too far east though so 925 down is too warm. Though looking at h5 the low might be too far east. Pretty nice ccb just offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It definatly looks better. The low on the surface map is still too far east though so 925 down is too warm. Though looking at h5 the low might be too far east. Pretty nice ccb just offshore though. I don't think its warm at the surface because the low is too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 And the 00z ECM comes in much less amplified and then the UK comes in like the 12 Z ECM essentially as far as track is concerned and the GGEM is still a miss which means we still do not have any model agreement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Tamaqua forecast for this weekend ***as of now***. Friday Night: A chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 GFS/EURO are both very similar on the 0z run. I think the chance of snow in the Poconos has decreased a fair bit at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 IF, and it's a big IF, the southern stream can phase up with Rina and then phase up with the northern stream (like most of the models are showing today), I suspect we'll see this trend back west. As high TPW/low static stability air gets entrained into the developing low in the SE US, we'll likely see stronger deepening than currently indicated in the models due to non-hydrostatic processes. That would likely lead to a more negatively tilted trough and a track closer to the coast. I still don't think I-95 and east is in the game, but the Susquehanna and Lehigh Valleys are still in play, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 P.S. Euro ENS mean still has 2-4 from the Poconos northeast to the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Intellectual dishonesty or bad model analysis? http://twitter.com/H...157752693071872 FWIW, they do both show snow but qpf is kinda light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 It's a pretty interesting setup in October. I might be overly optimistic about this event but it seems QPF rates would overcome boundary layer issues. The GFS does bring some non-accumulating snow to some portions of the coastal plain. Pretty much a nasty Rain/Sleet event for all involved. All of this falls during a 6-hour period. It does occur at mid-day/evening though, bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Unless precip rates are pretty hefty you usually need a pretty low thickness to get snow in oct...probably 534 or less... Wasn't oct 08 a 530ish thickness in the burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Unless precip rates are pretty hefty you usually need a pretty low thickness to get snow in oct...probably 534 or less... Wasn't oct 08 a 530ish thickness in the burbs? Nope, actually between 534 and 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 his snow map is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 12z Euro shows a cold rain, heavy at the coast, with some flurries to an inch in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 his snow map is out I... I... actually don't have a problem with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I... I... actually don't have a problem with that. That worries you, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 his snow map is out Very strange...in winter 2011, his swath would have been medium or dark blue, not pale blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That worries you, doesn't it? Indeed. Makes me think I am wishcasting, even though my thoughts on snow are well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think the coating end of that area looks good. Seriously is the ground even cool enough to end up with more than a coating with this amount of snow? (if it is snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I think the coating end of that area looks good. Seriously is the ground even cool enough to end up with more than a coating with this amount of snow? (if it is snow) That doesn't matter all that much... ambient air temperature is much more important than initial ground temperature for non-paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That doesn't matter all that much... ambient air temperature is much more important than initial ground temperature for non-paved surfaces. Yes... if its snowing at greater than 1" per hour then it won't matter what ground temps are. Of course, mind you that leaves and grass tend to be much closer to ambient air temps than pavement and dirt... and most places are covered in one of the former, not the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Fwiw jb tweeted he likes 1-3 inches 75 miles either side of a line from ilg to bos...dont shoot the messenger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes... if its snowing at greater than 1" per hour then it won't matter what ground temps are. Of course, mind you that leaves and grass tend to be much closer to ambient air temps than pavement and dirt... and most places are covered in one of the former, not the latter. Yeah, sorry, should have mentioned bare dirt, too. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 1319651029[/url]' post='1061502']Nope, actually between 534 and 540. Much better 500 mb support of course Helps the precip was pretty heavy when it came down as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Can anyone comment on the (potential) winds associated with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Fwiw jb tweeted he likes 1-3 inches 75 miles either side of a line from ilg to bos...dont shoot the messenger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Much better 500 mb support of course Helps the precip was pretty heavy when it came down as well Timing was helpful too if I remember correctly very late afternoon into evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yes... if its snowing at greater than 1" per hour then it won't matter what ground temps are. Of course, mind you that leaves and grass tend to be much closer to ambient air temps than pavement and dirt... and most places are covered in one of the former, not the latter. Honestly though how fast will the skin temps get down below 32? I'm not saying it wont stick, but it will definitely take a while with temps currently only getting down into the 40s at night (I'm in the southern poconos), a high of 50 and rain thursday, dropping down to around 28 as a low with snow. Back up to 50 on friday then down to 30 Friday night. No doubt if it snows for a while it will stick on the grass and colder surfaces, but it will take a while. Not being bitter, I don't care if it sticks at all in October. I can't wait to see the flakes falling though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You didn't circle the area 75 miles either side of that line, Quakertown... you get an F for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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