phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 GFS says weak and out to sea. EC says "yes" on a storm and continues to say snow north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 pic's with new ride in snow? I'm still doing OTR trucking so that will depend on if I'm home this weekend or out delivering freight somewhere along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 0z euro is colder on the backend of the storm..deff see flakes falling north and west and possibly down close to or into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 from Delisi AFTER THAT, WE THINK IT BEST NOT TO START CHANGING THE FORECAST. THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT TO 12Z FRIDAY, BUT A 00Z SUNDAY COMPARISON OF THE THE MILDLY INTERESTING GFS, THE MODERATELY MORE OMINOUS CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THE CONSIDERABLY MORE OMINOUS ECMWF DOES NOT TELL THIS FORECASTER TO PLACE ALL HIS CHIPS ON RED WITH THIS ROLL OF THE WHEEL.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I've been out the last few days for a wedding, but just wanted to pop in and say good job on the discussion in here re: the Euro snow threat. Good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I am already looking past the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 were on the white side of the line neighbour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z Euro gives a widespread 3-6 N/W of I-95, 6-12 in the Poconos. Still too high, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 12z Euro gives a widespread 3-6 N/W of I-95, 6-12 in the Poconos. Still too high, imo. so much for below normal snow coverage in the northern latitudes October 79 the only date i have seen significant snowfall in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Amazing how the Euro continues to show a far NW solution while all other models don't even graze the coast. Doesn't it have a bias of over-amplifying troughs? Maybe that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Amazing how the Euro continues to show a far NW solution while all other models don't even graze the coast. Doesn't it have a bias of over-amplifying troughs? Maybe that's why. Just remember the boxing day storm. The euro at this time range was the only model to have it, all other models said you're nuts euro. Not comparing this storm to that, but more or less the model's performance. And the euro's main bias is closing off/ holding back shortwaves in the South west US. It's usually the most conservative model when it comes to amplification. We'll see what the euro ens show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Amazing how the Euro continues to show a far NW solution while all other models don't even graze the coast. Doesn't it have a bias of over-amplifying troughs? Maybe that's why. It has everything to do with the way it is handling Rina. Weaker, remnant moisture is good for the southern stream s/w to remain strong... a stronger Rina blocks the southern stream and doesn't allow a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 It has everything to do with the way it is handling Rina. Weaker, remnant moisture is good for the southern stream s/w to remain strong... a stronger Rina blocks the southern stream and doesn't allow a phase. I can't see Rina being that strong much past Cancun/Coz given its smaller size and the upcoming wind shear. It doesn't look like it's going to pull a Wilma and shoot through S FL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I can't see Rina being that strong much past Cancun/Coz given its smaller size and the upcoming wind shear. It doesn't look like it's going to pull a Wilma and shoot through S FL... That's why I'm siding with a toned down Euro soln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 That's why I'm siding with a toned down Euro soln I don't blame you. Can't see 3-6 but I can see 1-3 for the higher elevation crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't blame you. Can't see 3-6 but I can see 1-3 for the higher elevation crew. Sounds like a fair assessment to me.. anyone expecting 12-18" (like the euro/JMA) is printing out.. would be crazy. I dont want, what could be the season's biggest snowfall, to happen in late October lol. Based on the QPF, I'd go with 3-4" for MBY, at an elev of 1700'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It has everything to do with the way it is handling Rina. Weaker, remnant moisture is good for the southern stream s/w to remain strong... a stronger Rina blocks the southern stream and doesn't allow a phase. Its trough also comes out of the sw more amplified than any other model. I don't see the suite of ensembles, but almost looks like two clusterings, one closer to the coast, one farther offshore. Canary in the coal mine storm see how well the models handle this one, it does have a Dec 2010 look to it with phasing issues. Also looks like a piece of the energy puzzle coming into British Columbia should be better sampled starting with the 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 18z gfs is likely a no-go as well since Rina is a distinct entity down near the FL Keys and the wave off of the Carolinas looks awfully flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 ...although the 18z did shift west a good bit and is a bit more amplified. Still a miss but not as much of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 ...although the 18z did shift west a good bit and is a bit more amplified. Still a miss but not as much of one. The 18z GFS brings a warm, wet snow to coastal NJ. Can't find any records of significant October snow in Southern NJ so I'm hoping it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z GFS brings a warm, wet snow to coastal NJ. Can't find any records of significant October snow in Southern NJ so I'm hoping it verifies. Precip would be way too light and SST's are too warm with a ne wind for it to be snow in reality based on the GFS' depiction. PS -- raw temps on the 18z GFS are in the 40's at the coast on Saturday...perhaps near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Precip would be way too light and SST's are too warm with a ne wind for it to be snow in reality based on the GFS' depiction. PS -- raw temps on the 18z GFS are in the 40's at the coast on Saturday...perhaps near 50. I agree, it would not amount to much of anything and would be a waste of storm potential, mabye if there is a deeper, offshore system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Precip would be way too light and SST's are too warm with a ne wind for it to be snow in reality based on the GFS' depiction. PS -- raw temps on the 18z GFS are in the 40's at the coast on Saturday...perhaps near 50. Perhaps I haven't explored it enough, but I don't understand which chart/panel leads you to surface temps. Would you care to educate an amateur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Perhaps I haven't explored it enough, but I don't understand which chart/panel leads you to surface temps. Would you care to educate an amateur? I can throw in my 2cents here.. You can pull up skew-t/sounding charts for each frame of the gfs /nam on twisterdata.com. That gives you a graph of ambient temp and dew point temp from 1000mb (surface roughly) all the way up to 200mn ( strat). However, for "frozen" precip, you just need to look at roughly 850mb ( snow growth zone) in conjuction with what's goin on @700mb's (warm pockets) and from 850-1000mb usually dictates precip type. Warm=temps above 0C ---cold=below 0 Warm 850, warm 925 cold 1000(surface) indicates zrain Warm 850, cold 925 cold surface =sleet Cold 850 cold 925 cold surface =snow... That's the basics. Not gonna get too technical. I'm on my iPhone, so maybe someone can show you the soundings chart and elaborate a bit further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Perhaps I haven't explored it enough, but I don't understand which chart/panel leads you to surface temps. Would you care to educate an amateur? None of the "standard" charts. However, said data is definitely produced and distributed. Some sites make charts out of it. Otherwise you would look at the SkewT charts or raw gridded data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 haha so no-one wants to use the poor ol NAM. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks to Irishbri and Ray! I now remember doing that before. Of course, I'll take what it says with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 haha so no-one wants to use the poor ol NAM. LOL. Considering this storm is past the 84hr NAM timeframe.... Yea, I wouldn't wanna use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Perhaps I haven't explored it enough, but I don't understand which chart/panel leads you to surface temps. Would you care to educate an amateur? I use Meteostar (http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KVPZ) for the GFS and WxCaster for the NAM (http://www.wxcaster....models_text.htm) although you can get the GFS there too, I just prefer Meteostar's interface. That said, whenever precipitation type is in question, it's never enough to look at just one level (especially not just the surface). Like bri said, the Skew-T's on TwisterData can be very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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