Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 10 now giving the burbs a seven inch range. Should've just gone for broke with 1-12 to cover all bases. Although you/I would know...the 3 is closer to Philly...10 to Allentown (NW). It is silly because many people wouldn't know. 3-10 WTF? They had 2-6 yesterday as well...never heard either of those ranges before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temp at 35 in schnecksville. Down from 38 at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Although you/I would know...the 3 is closer to Philly...10 to Allentown (NW). It is silly because many people wouldn't know. 3-10 WTF? They had 2-6 yesterday as well...never heard either of those ranges before. IMO, if it were me making that map I would have split the 3-10 in half...go 5-10 in the LV/Berks corridor, 3-6 (or 2-5) for Bucks/Montco/Chesco...or at least write/say 3" lower els up to 10" hills...that at least covers things a bit more easily... But yeah, most of us would know the idea with that map but an average schmo out there watching the news this morning is thinking that Montgomeryville is going to end up with 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 7AM Temp 39 DP 30 Wind: Light & Variable Looks like light precip should arrive within an hour or so. In what form will be interesting. Suspect rain or rain snow for areas at or below ~800' with the opposite true above 800'. Then it will be a matter of how quickly a transition to all snow occurs as intensity increases towards midday and more so this afternoon. Thinking for my area is ~5-12" with 12"+ possible in some spots in the highest terrian over 1200'. Elevation will play a big role but also placement of heaviest banding later this afternoon and into this evening will also be very important. If high terrian and heavy banding merge well later 12"+ is likely a sure thing in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 IMO, if it were me making that map I would have split the 3-10 in half...go 5-10 in the LV/Berks corridor, 3-6 (or 2-5) for Bucks/Montco/Chesco...or at least write/say 3" lower els up to 10" hills...that at least covers things a bit more easily... But yeah, most of us would know the idea with that map but an average schmo out there watching the news this morning is thinking that Montgomeryville is going to end up with 10" of snow. Yep. lol..my parents would think that but they're in their 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 39 degrees and rainy here. Those 6-7 inch ranges on the maps are lame. Go out on a limb and split them into 2 ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lots of reports in MA forum of mixing/changing to snow with heavier stuff past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 IMO, if it were me making that map I would have split the 3-10 in half...go 5-10 in the LV/Berks corridor, 3-6 (or 2-5) for Bucks/Montco/Chesco...or at least write/say 3" lower els up to 10" hills...that at least covers things a bit more easily... To follow up on this: Do you know if Glenn creates/approves all maps first? Or whoever the on air Met is...Bill, Dave etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temperature down one degree in the past 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lots of reports in MA forum of mixing/changing to snow with heavier stuff past hour Looks to be moving from west to east though. got silver dollars coming down here in Frederick. It may tak a while to get to philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lots of reports in MA forum of mixing/changing to snow with heavier stuff past hour Frederick, Md getting hit good now: http://www.frederickscanner.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 39 degrees and rainy here. Those 6-7 inch ranges on the maps are lame. Go out on a limb and split them into 2 ranges. 100% agree. It's almost not worth bothering... Still holding on to 40* by a few tenths. Hoping for the high end of my WWA 1-3", but honestly not expecting more than a coating on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Frederick, Md getting hit good now: http://www.frederickscanner.com/ I looked out the window instead but yeah slush bomb here in frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 To follow up on this: Do you know if Glenn creates/approves all maps first? Or whoever the on air Met is...Bill, Dave etc? I know that most stations coordinate with their chief (or their "brains" on staff) to keep the forecasts relatively consistent or tweaked as needed. I would think it's probably based a bit more on who has the next shift on air and their comfort level (or competency level as a forecaster). I can't remember many times when a snow map hasn't started with one of the chiefs (Kathy, Glenn, Rob G when he was on 29, John B.) unless it was a Sunday storm or a holiday storm (12/26 last year...and in that storm you saw the huge difference in forecasts between 3, 6, and 10 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks to be moving from west to east though. got silver dollars coming down here in Frederick. It may tak a while to get to philly burbs. no doubt...just good to see the heavier precip mixing down the frozen precip even with dewpoints still just above freezing right at the surface...glad to not peek into your forum right now and not see a bunch of "bust" posts...don't worry we'll make up the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 falling to 38F here. 0.4" rain overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At my gfs in quakertown...snow rain.mix now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Are we doing a sepereate obs. thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN WV...SERN NY...NWRN MD INCLUDING PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NWRN NJ...EXTREME NRN VA. CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 291136Z - 291700Z PRIND HEAVIEST SNOW RATES THROUGH 18Z...AND MOST SUSTAINED AT 1-2 INCHES/HOUR...WILL BE OVER AND W OF BLUE RIDGE FROM NERN WV AND VA BORDER REGION NEWD ACROSS NWRN MD TO S-CENTRAL PA...SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO INTERIOR SERN NY BY ABOUT 18Z. RAIN SHOULD BECOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN PA THROUGH 16Z. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THAT PORTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ZONE FROM NRN VA TO SERN PA AND EVENTUALLY NWRN NJ. CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE RELATED TO SEVERAL JUXTAPOSED REGIMES OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY. THESE INCLUDE...FROM TOP TO BOTTOM OF TROPOSPHERE... -- STRENGTHENING/NEWD-MOVING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/WRN KY/TN...APCHS AREA WITH MORE NEGATIVE TILT. ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC-LEAF SIGNATURE HAS BECOME VERY WELL-DEFINED WITH COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN PA DURING PAST 2-3 HOURS. -- MIDLEVEL DCVA PRECEDING THAT TROUGH. -- NARROW SW-NE ALIGNED RIBBONS OF MIDLEVEL CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SLANTWISE CAPE UP TO ABOUT 200 J/KG. -- LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY STRONG 15-18Z OVER S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN PA AND INTERIOR SERN NY PER SREF GUIDANCE. -- ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...INVOF RAIN/SNOW TRANSITON ZONE...SUPPORTING 100-300 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER ERN FRINGES OF DISCUSSION AREA THAT IN TURN CAN ENABLE CONVECTIVELY AIDED SNOW BURSTS WITH OCNL THUNDER. MODIFIED 6Z RNK/DCA RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SATURATION IN LOW LEVELS...PRECLUDING APPRECIABLE WET-BULB COOLING. HOWEVER...COLUMNAR DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET WAA IN ELEVATED CONVEYOR ENOUGH TO YIELD DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW OVER APPALACHIANS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just woke up to light rain and a temp of 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Down a full 2 degrees now in the past hour. 38.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Rain snow mix here, temp 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 All Md live streaming hwy cams here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ALL: To make life slightly easier for this guy... esp if no town associated with your ID...pls list your town and we like the Albrightsville Carbon cty rep of .5 on snow board etc... let us know the road depth vs grass if you can. also, when power outages begin. much thanks, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 At my gfs in quakertown...snow rain.mix now Are you in town or outside? That area's elevation is pretty varied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I know that most stations coordinate with their chief (or their "brains" on staff) to keep the forecasts relatively consistent or tweaked as needed. I would think it's probably based a bit more on who has the next shift on air and their comfort level (or competency level as a forecaster). I can't remember many times when a snow map hasn't started with one of the chiefs (Kathy, Glenn, Rob G when he was on 29, John B.) unless it was a Sunday storm or a holiday storm (12/26 last year...and in that storm you saw the huge difference in forecasts between 3, 6, and 10 ) That's kinda what I thought, By the way who's chief on Ch 6...Ceciley? Adam Joesph?....don't tell me David Murphy. For some reason I don't watch 6 often...btw dropped 2.5 deg in 2 hours in Horsham...I think we'll go over to snow earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Rain snow mix down here by the abe airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Rain snow mix 35F at 700' asl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nevildev Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Dublin, PA (605'): Snowflakes starting to mix in with the rain. 36.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just turned over in State College http://128.118.52.239/view/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.