cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, 12 hrs out and the NAM and GFS are pretty far apart on temps. Lets see what the Euro says. I guess a blend of the NAM and GFS would be the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That's not shabby at all. 0c 850 line looks similar to 18z and system is a little east. Freezing line continues to be iffy, but maybe heavy precip makes up for marginal temps. GFS is still the warmest of all of the solutions, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 yucky GFS for PHilly... even through 24hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 yucky GFS for PHilly... even through 24hrs... Yeah,GFS is definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0c 850 line looks similar to 18z and system is a little east. Freezing line continues to be iffy, but maybe heavy precip makes up for marginal temps. GFS is still the warmest of all of the solutions, right? Bottom line, the potential is there for a 6-9 hour period of snow south of the Lehigh Valley (where they will get crushed). We'll see how it pans out. I think the NWS will be happy with their current forecasts based on 00z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Chubbs, I've been out of pocket since 5:00. Any significant changes for the New Castle County crew? No major changes. 00z models are a little cooler but not enough to make a big difference. R/S line may be in chester county or NW DE most of day and then shift SE late in day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 bedtime for this guy... getting paid to be in a horizontal state of readiness till 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 00z GFS is a little cooler than 18z. Still warmer than NAM however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What was everyone looking at PHL expecting? A major snowstorm?? Relax. Watch the system develop and enjoy the several hours of heavy snow you will get regardless of accumulations. Its October folks. The ocean temps are in the MID 60s for crying out loud. Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No major changes. 00z models are a little cooler but not enough to make a big difference. R/S line may be in chester county or NW DE most of day and then shift SE late in day Thanks, I have high hopes for you out in New London! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 UKIE cold at h85 FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What was everyone looking at PHL expecting? A major snowstorm?? Relax. Watch the system develop and enjoy the several hours of heavy snow you will get regardless of accumulations. Its October folks. The ocean temps are in the MID 60s for crying out loud. Good Lord. Ughhh yea! Haha jk. I was simply pointing out the warm layer on the gfs. While not expecting 2-3", will be quite happy with 1-2" and a pasting on all elevated surfaces (trees, poles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Bolaris at 12:30am...looks about right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Agreed - the FOX 29 snow map for this storm looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Light snow here in Nazareth, PA at 2 am. WAHOOO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 On the plane to JFK (earliest place I could fly into)... GFS definitely got snowier and that means a lot at TTN where the GFS has been very borderline. Me like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm very leery about using the NAM in this particular type of setup given how putrid it's been the last month or so and given its tendency to overdo in general. This will be a good thumping but the NAM is running a good 20-30% above the GFS, which is about 20-30% above the EC. GFS precip with EC profile might be the way to go on this. Still a good thumping north/west nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temperature comparison between reality, raw GFS, raw NAM at 5 AM (09z): Philly -- 42, 39, 41 Allentown -- 41, 38, 38 Reading -- 43, 38, 37 Pottstown -- 42, 38, 38 Lancaster -- 40, 37, 37 Scranton -- 36, 35, 36 Reality is running a bit warmer than modeling outside of the higher terrain (Scranton)...so the changeover may be delayed a bit from what the models are showing. Still doesn't mean that we're not going to get thumped well north/west...but it does mean it's going to take a little more work in the atmosphere for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Torch here....39.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Temperature comparison between reality, raw GFS, raw NAM at 5 AM (09z): Philly -- 42, 39, 41 Allentown -- 41, 38, 38 Reading -- 43, 38, 37 Pottstown -- 42, 38, 38 Lancaster -- 40, 37, 37 Scranton -- 36, 35, 36 Reality is running a bit warmer than modeling outside of the higher terrain (Scranton)...so the changeover may be delayed a bit from what the models are showing. Still doesn't mean that we're not going to get thumped well north/west...but it does mean it's going to take a little more work in the atmosphere for it to happen. 3 degrees or so difference I wouldn't worry about that yet. 6 or 7 yes. Once some heavier bands move in I think we'll be alright. Reading is a little whacked though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 3 degrees or so difference I wouldn't worry about that yet. 6 or 7 yes. Once some heavier bands move in I think we'll be alright. Reading is a little whacked though.. Helps having the Airport somewhat in a valley. Berks is going to be a tough area to forecast -- the hills around Reading probably get 8"+ of snow while the city itself might get 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 38 with light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 37 with steady rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Record cold high for today @ PHL is 45. Unless there's an in-between hour ob that went above 43, I think that's one record for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Warm ocean temps are a big factor in December storms, and I would think it will be a bigger factor here especially along i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 10 now giving the burbs a seven inch range. Should've just gone for broke with 1-12 to cover all bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lgt.Snow here from Rain,Temp. dropped about 4 dgs.in 3 hrs or so...still 33.6,but Acc.of about .5 on my board and deck,grassy surface(yard) out back so far...Temp. down another click to 33.4...going back to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nevildev Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Precip has begun here in Dublin, PA…looks like rain but I haven’t been downstairs by a light yet. Temps have fallen from 41.1 to 38.8 over the past hour. Radar definitely looks like winter with snow falling overhead “fuzzy in radar” and then melting in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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