chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Probably 2.25 inches of QPF in the Lehigh Valley on the new NAM. I know that is exaggerated, but this has the chance to exceed a foot here at least on grassy areas and decks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Looks like 1 inch frozen QPF N and W of Philly and immediate suburbs on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Tons of qpf in the ccb. N and W of Philly gets crushed on this run. Parsley, when you say crushed, what are the snow totals and is banding a real issue? I wonder who will win the sleet award and where there is sleet and banding there is the potential for thunder snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think Hurricane's map is looking good at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Parsley, when you say crushed, what are the snow totals and is banding a real issue? I wonder who will win the sleet award and where there is sleet and banding there is the potential for thunder snow I wouldn't expect that much sleet, there isn't really a major inversion. It's just marginal temps all the way down that's the problem. Not to say there won't be sleet somewhere, the forecast doesn't scream a sleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Parsley, when you say crushed, what are the snow totals and is banding a real issue? I wonder who will win the sleet award and where there is sleet and banding there is the potential for thunder snow Well, if there an area that should be in a 6-12" I'd paint it up in Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think Hurricane's map is looking good at this point.. 6-12" is too close to Philly IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 if that deform/CCB stays west of philly, you can almost forget about anything more than a slushy dusting in philly. Areas of convergence will make light precip rates, and it tough to get rates fast enough to cool the column, let alone accumulate anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Of course I am biased to my area, but as always the cut off on amounts will be dramatic and even moreso this time around given the time of year and defined convective banding. 6-12" is too close to Philly IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 if that deform/CCB stays west of philly, you can almost forget about anything more than a slushy dusting in philly. Areas of convergence will make light precip rates, and it tough to get rates fast enough to cool the column, let alone accumulate anywhere. Definetely a chance they miss out, while places nearby are getting rocked. With that said you'd think PHL airport has a decent shot for 2-4 hours of wet snow at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That sim radar is a snapshot. The ccb will rotate through sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This looks pretty good : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Based on 00z Nam text data, ABE is all snow for 1.87" of liquid during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 925 is really marginal though for the NW burbs at 18 and 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good Lord Allentown: If even a fraction of that comes into play, thats insane.. Here's why: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't know how accurate this p type algorithm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 clown maps have a bullseye in the lehigh valley to nw nj of 17-21 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Glenn 11pm updated totals....toned it down a bit but makes more sense: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Glenn 11pm updated totals....toned it down a bit but makes more sense: very reasonable. Figure anyone from Havertown west and North will get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 very reasonable. Figure anyone from Havertown west and North will get a few inches. I would hate to be a Met for this storm...so many variables....could bust badly or get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 00z NAM looks a little colder than 18z. R/S line looks to be near or just NW of phl most of the day before shifting SE. Far NW suburbs on out look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 00z NAM looks a little colder than 18z. R/S line looks to be near or just NW of phl most of the day before shifting SE. Far NW suburbs on out look good. Chubbs, I've been out of pocket since 5:00. Any significant changes for the New Castle County crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Anyone south of the Lehigh Valley and upper Bucks county will hate the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 assume u mean the 00z, but the LV gets hammered Anyone south of the Lehigh Valley and upper Bucks county will hate the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Anyone south of the Lehigh Valley and upper Bucks county will hate the 0z GFS. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 assume u mean the 00z, but the LV gets hammered Yeah but there's a tight gradient to the south according to the clown map I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Anyone south of the Lehigh Valley and upper Bucks county will hate the 0z GFS. ?? http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false disregard.. PHL @ 18 and the clown map has up to 6" already? yeah..ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ?? http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false I find the instantweathermaps ones to be more accurate, and it makes sense given the position of the 850mb 0C line at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 ?? http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false That's not shabby at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yes elevated areas will get the jackpot, but as of right now, the lehigh valley has the best shot of scoring the coup! i need to get sleep tonight!!! Yeah but there's a tight gradient to the south according to the clown map I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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