chrisNJ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z Nam Bufkit for ABE - 30.3 inches 18z GFS Bufkit for ABE - 0.4 inches :arrowhead::arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From the 18z GFS, it seems like only about 0.20" (at KPHL) or 0.25" (at KPNE) of precip is in the "safe zone" of definitely cold enough temps from 700mb all the way down. The GFS still shows a lot of rain. Right now I'm getting flashes of January '08 mixed in with October '08, and I really feel like it could go either way south of the Fall Line. Edit: And remember, we're talking ratios of, at best, 8:1. So verbatim that's not a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Although just on the other side is much better. For instance, KNXX is running 0.57" in the safe zone (which I'm basing off an 850mb temp of <-3 C and 2m temps at 33F). 0.56" at KDYL. 0.54" guaranteed safe at KUKT although that far north they're on the line the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From the 18z GFS, it seems like only about 0.20" (at KPHL) or 0.25" (at KPNE) of precip is in the "safe zone" of definitely cold enough temps from 700mb all the way down. The GFS still shows a lot of rain. Right now I'm getting flashes of January '08 mixed in with October '08, and I really feel like it could go either way south of the Fall Line. Edit: And remember, we're talking ratios of, at best, 8:1. So verbatim that's not a lot of snow. Before this storm even starts, we all need to remember PHL itself was never in the right spot on any models (maybe one random run) for an appreciable snow. 1-2 slushy inches is a success for PHL. The real story will be areas in the battle zone stretching 30-40 miles north and west of PHL. Once you get past there, its pretty much a guaranteed dump of snow. Should be an interesting afternoon across SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Although just on the other side is much better. For instance, KNXX is running 0.57" in the safe zone (which I'm basing off an 850mb temp of <-3 C and 2m temps at 33F). 0.56" at KDYL. 0.54" guaranteed safe at KUKT although that far north they're on the line the whole time. The gradient from ABE to PHL (drawing a straight line) will be insane if this plays out anything like the models depict it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it does smell like snow out there. There are going to be some very cool pictures with the leaves and the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The gradient from ABE to PHL (drawing a straight line) will be insane if this plays out anything like the models depict it. Mt Holly agrees with their latest map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it does smell like snow out there. There are going to be some very cool pictures with the leaves and the snow By far, that's what I'm really hoping for most out of this. If it only snows an inch or two, eh... but if its plastered to the trees, awesome. Anything above 2.5 inches back home is just pure excess and joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Glenn going kinda high: Got lots of bust potential written on that 6-12" range. If he nails it he scores the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Before this storm even starts, we all need to remember PHL itself was never in the right spot on any models (maybe one random run) for an appreciable snow. 1-2 slushy inches is a success for PHL. The real story will be areas in the battle zone stretching 30-40 miles north and west of PHL. Once you get past there, its pretty much a guaranteed dump of snow. Should be an interesting afternoon across SE PA. Oh I agree totally. Especially at the airport, I'd expect less than an inch. I feel like at least a few runs of the Euro teased Philly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Got lots of bust potential written on that 6-12" range. If he nails it he scores the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Mets, from BGM -- agree or not? DESPITE THE FALLING SNOW...MODEL GUID DOES SHOW SOME TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. HAVE FCST A BIT OF A MIX THERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Mets, from BGM -- agree or not? DESPITE THE FALLING SNOW...MODEL GUID DOES SHOW SOME TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. HAVE FCST A BIT OF A MIX THERE DESPITE THE FALLING SNOW...MODEL GUID DOES SHOW SOME TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. HAVE FCST A BIT OF A MIX THERE...AND TO THE NORTH WHERE PCPN RATES WILL BE MUCH LWR...AND DYNAMIC COOLING NOT AVBL TO COOL THE COLUMN. ALSO...WITH THE BEST UPWARD MOTION...CNSRBL LYR IN THE DENDRITE ZONE SHD RESULT IN GOOD SNOW MAKING DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. ----- I think you'll be fine, maybe not 10 inches like higher elevations, but would you be upset with 4 or 5 inches in October. I'm guessing you're at the absolute lowest elevation in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0z NAM colder through 12, heavy precip already in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just an FYI, the radar mosaic will look rather unimpressive until mid to late morning tomorrow. That is when all the dynamics get conglomerated, so don't go jumping off a cliff. Thus far everything is on track, the two streams are modeled correctly and temperature profiles are just where they should be. I know this is a dicey setup, but you are only going to get yourself overworked if you freak out over every radar/satellite frame update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just an FYI, the radar mosaic will look rather unimpressive until mid to late morning tomorrow. That is when all the dynamics get conglomerated, so don't go jumping off a cliff. Thus far everything is on track, the two streams are modeled correctly and temperature profiles are just where they should be. I know this is a dicey setup, but you are only going to get yourself overworked if you freak out over every radar/satellite frame update. Good point. 00z NAM shows thing really coming together toward late morning Saturday......snowing good in the Susq. Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 After last winter everyone nw of 81 is on edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lehigh Valley getting crushed on the 00z NAM Saturday afternoon. Battle zone between rain/snow across the Delaware Valley between 18z-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NW Philly burbs skew t at 15. It's so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DESPITE THE FALLING SNOW...MODEL GUID DOES SHOW SOME TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. HAVE FCST A BIT OF A MIX THERE...AND TO THE NORTH WHERE PCPN RATES WILL BE MUCH LWR...AND DYNAMIC COOLING NOT AVBL TO COOL THE COLUMN. ALSO...WITH THE BEST UPWARD MOTION...CNSRBL LYR IN THE DENDRITE ZONE SHD RESULT IN GOOD SNOW MAKING DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. ----- I think you'll be fine, maybe not 10 inches like higher elevations, but would you be upset with 4 or 5 inches in October. I'm guessing you're at the absolute lowest elevation in the area? 600' ASL or so...pretty much as low as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=21¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false strictly going by this, The NAM is reallly backing off the eastward extent of the changeover line...Almost keeps Philly outta any sig frozen qpf... againt, strictly going by the twister data clown maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lehigh Valley getting crushed on the 00z NAM Saturday afternoon. Battle zone between rain/snow across the Delaware Valley between 18z-21z. Tons of qpf in the ccb. N and W of Philly gets crushed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false strictly going by this, The NAM is reallly backing off the eastward extent of the changeover line...Almost keeps Philly outta any sig frozen qpf... againt, strictly going by the twister data clown maps.. Philly gets their chance between 21z-03z. Maybe they pull off an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=21¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false strictly going by this, The NAM is reallly backing off the eastward extent of the changeover line...Almost keeps Philly outta any sig frozen qpf... againt, strictly going by the twister data clown maps.. Seriously by looking at the nam it shows us in delco getting blasted/pasted with heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Tons of qpf in the ccb. N and W of Philly gets crushed on this run. Yeah, its going to be an hour by hour thing Sat. afternoon as the rain-snow line pivots SE across the Delaware Valley. Definetely going to be where the gradient sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Seriously by looking at the nam it shows us in delco getting blasted/pasted with heavy wet snow. Every mile NW of PHL airport could help in snow totals here........that's the way you gotta look at it, and also the help of elevation (if ya have it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false strictly going by this, The NAM is reallly backing off the eastward extent of the changeover line...Almost keeps Philly outta any sig frozen qpf... againt, strictly going by the twister data clown maps.. That's only through 5pm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nam continues to hint at the most intense part of the deformation band staying north of the PA Turnpike. We'll see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Bring it on...should be an interesting gradient between southeast Berks and northwest Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Simply where I live will have the least snow in pa back to the way it should be. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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