FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 whatever happens, seems the last 5 years everything is an extreme one way or another (heat, cold, rain, snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There seems to be a consensus among the GFS, NAM and ECMWF that the best time for accumulating snow at TTN is 0Z-3Z as the lower end of the deform band swings through... this is similar to what happened on 2/5/01 where essentially the same thing occurred, though a few hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 NWS banking on an early changeover in their AFD. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPHI/1110282051.fxus61.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Quick question: is this a sign of things to come, or is it like '08 when we got that October snow and then nothing the rest of the year? I haven't had a ton of time this year to check out winter prognostications--i.e. La Nina/El Nino/teleconnection forecasts and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Webstream is up and running for the event....Live from Berks County, PA http://www.ustream.tv/channel/dssbss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Quick question: is this a sign of things to come, or is it like '08 when we got that October snow and then nothing the rest of the year? I haven't had a ton of time this year to check out winter prognostications--i.e. La Nina/El Nino/teleconnection forecasts and the like. We had two significant snowfalls afterwards...early Feb and early Mar. It wasn't really "nothing" considering the prior winter sucked. October snow has little correlation with the rest of the winter. 79-80 was "ok" -- 02-03 (which had snow) was great, 08-09 was normal. We even had a trace in October '72...the "snowless" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We had two significant snowfalls afterwards...early Feb and early Mar. It wasn't really "nothing" considering the prior winter sucked. October snow has little correlation with the rest of the winter. 79-80 was "ok" -- 02-03 (which had snow) was great, 08-09 was normal. We even had a trace in October '72...the "snowless" winter. TTN had 2.5", their biggest storm of the winter. It does seem as though most October storms are followed by average winters at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 STarting to blossom: gulf feed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There seems to be a consensus among the GFS, NAM and ECMWF that the best time for accumulating snow at TTN is 0Z-3Z as the lower end of the deform band swings through... this is similar to what happened on 2/5/01 where essentially the same thing occurred, though a few hours earlier. Latest models show intensification around LI- would account for deformation band swinging through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 TTN had 2.5", their biggest storm of the winter. It does seem as though most October storms are followed by average winters at best. There were some winters in the 60's that did well...it's not a clear cut correlation. Trenton got screwed a good bit in 08-09...but it wasn't an utterly awful winter for Philly or Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Webstream is up and running for the event....Live from Berks County, PA http://www.ustream.tv/channel/dssbss take the screen out of the window if you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 STarting to blossom: gulf feed! Or Rina feed. title should be changed to : "Will mike2010 get 18 inches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 take the screen out of the window if you can Yea...not gonna happen...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Or Rina feed. title should be changed to : "Will mike2010 get 18 inches". BBQ cam set up? Going for the Pocono record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 TTN had 2.5", their biggest storm of the winter. It does seem as though most October storms are followed by average winters at best. The three Octobers with measurable snow at PHL, subsequent snowfall those winters were 18-29". Didn't snow at PHL itself in '08, but that winter too was within that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In my database for Chester County since 1894...only one October (1925) had snow = 3.5" Would seem we have a shot to surpass that tomorrow. Kinda unfortunate I am here in Sea Isle at less than 10 feet above sea level....not thinking I see a flake here. Don't plan on being here for any "in winter" storms this year!! I know Greg (WhiteMtn) is looking out for the higher spots in Chesco and will keep us updated I will update the Wxsim for NW Chesco in a couple hours Should be fun tracking over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS still on warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BBQ cam set up? Going for the Pocono record? Dude, I think we can beat it. 17's the number. Already down to 36 here. It was like 33 the entire day back then too... this time = should be below 32. For the people that don't know what were talking about. (posted yesterday too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS actually shifts heaviest axis of snow (compared to 12z GFS) from south central PA into eastern PA. Lehigh Valley/Poconos/NW Jersey Wow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For TTN the GFS shift was essentially negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For TTN the GFS shift was essentially negligible. What happened? Out on the firetruck at work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Glenn going kinda high: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What happened? Out on the firetruck at work... Nothing bad. Just an even more intense gradient across eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nothing bad. Just an even more intense gradient across eastern PA. 0Z runs should be interesting. Begining to become time to look into HRRR, MM5, SPC WRF, ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Glenn going kinda high: 6-12"? I never expected that. Based on the models, I think 3-6" is possible, but a couple of slushy inches could come instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319841460[/url]' post='1073498']6-12"? I never expected that. Based on the models, I think 3-6" is possible, but a couple of slushy inches could come instead. I think he is keying on the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think he is keying on the deformation band. I guess it could happen with a direct hit from that band. I'm seeing some widly different forecasts, and it's October, so that's why I'm keeping expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Glenn going kinda high: Geln is the best, if he says it I would'nt count it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man, if that 850 low was a little further east, I would be a lot happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In my database for Chester County since 1894...only one October (1925) had snow = 3.5" Would seem we have a shot to surpass that tomorrow. Kinda unfortunate I am here in Sea Isle at less than 10 feet above sea level....not thinking I see a flake here. Don't plan on being here for any "in winter" storms this year!! I know Greg (WhiteMtn) is looking out for the higher spots in Chesco and will keep us updated I will update the Wxsim for NW Chesco in a couple hours Should be fun tracking over the next 24 hours Will do Paul. I sit @ 700' and can walk to 1000'. That might make a big difference early but if we catch that def band like Glenn seems to suggest in that forecast graphic, elevation won't matter as much. My property is somewhat rural and the area is heavily wooded so that is my primary concern. Electric often is lost and we're among the last to get it back. Either way I'm sure pics will be in order tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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