Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2-4" in October will get me back home. Still want to wait til I see the 18Z runs. If I booked now and then something unfortunate happened at 18Z, I'd be... displeased. Worst case scenario, you make a drive 1 hour north-northwest of your parents house Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Worst case scenario, you make a drive 1 hour north-northwest of your parents house Saturday afternoon. If I can talk my mom into letting me borrow her car and drive around in the snow... BIG IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I can talk my mom into letting me borrow her car and drive around in the snow... BIG IF. a rental costs $30 plus insurance. You wreck it, just walk away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Chad Myers was on CNN a few minutes ago and said the most recent information (he referenced the last 1 1/2 hours) shows a very bad scenario. His map showed a decent sized area with 15" from above NYC to PHL (all on the NW side of the cities). It even had 10.3" in Norristown. Seems pretty aggressive to me. Has something dramatically changed.? NWS shows about 2" to 3" in Norristown in thier noon update. (Norristown is about 20 NW of center city Phila. ) My concern is for tree and wire fire calls. I would think the ground is too warm, but the trees in the cold air?? Time will tell. He's probably using clown maps from wxcaster to make that case. Those are based on 10:1 ratios (which won't happen in this storm...it's probably 7/8:1...it's also basing it on being snow a lot more of the storm than reality. Cut em in half and you might have a more realistic forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15Z SREF is warmer at 850mb, NW with the axis of heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15Z SREF is warmer at 850mb, NW with the axis of heaviest precip maps? What did 9z show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 He's probably using clown maps from wxcaster to make that case. Those are based on 10:1 ratios (which won't happen in this storm...it's probably 7/8:1...it's also basing it on being snow a lot more of the storm than reality. Cut em in half and you might have a more realistic forecast. Would not be surprised if our area (I-95) had 5:1 ratios even when its snowing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Would not be surprised if our area (I-95) had 5:1 ratios even when its snowing hard. I could believe that. At least it's not sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I could believe that. At least it's not sleet Poor Rib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Warning up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE REGION... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SWATCH OF HEAVY WET, AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO END AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. IF THE SNOW FALLS AT A HEAVY RATE, THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE EFFICIENCY OF IT STICKING TO ALL SURFACES. NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-291000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0010.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING, AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY WEIGH DOWN TREES WHICH STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE WET SNOW MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM, LOCALLY INCREASING THE ACCUMULATION RATE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT THEN DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 is this December?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking better, but I still think the 6" (along with the tight gradient) line comes down a bit further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well now that is interesting. Introduces a not seen before 10"+ line in the LV and migrates the higher numbers further south and east. I guess model stability today has enhanced confidence in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is just so unreal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's gonna suck up here. I'm thinkin 18 inches at-least. Power outages galore. Just got gas for the generator... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just a heads-up, it's kind-of an unwritten rule that when we quote a long post or a post with a large image we usually delete the image/long text to reduce scrolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z NAM bullseyes Lehigh Valley/southern Poconos/southern Susquehanna Valley again. 850mb 0C line never makes it to SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just a heads-up, it's kind-of an unwritten rule that when we quote a long post or a post with a large image we usually delete the image/long text to reduce scrolling. Sorry - fixed mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE REGION... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SWATCH OF HEAVY WET, AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, SNOW TO A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO END AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY WET SNOW SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. IF THE SNOW FALLS AT A HEAVY RATE, THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE EFFICIENCY OF IT STICKING TO ALL SURFACES. DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-291000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0022.111029T1600Z-111030T0600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED SURFACES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN MIX WITH WET SNOW AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL DEVELOPING, AND THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL WEIGH DOWN TREE LIMBS WHICH STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THERE COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM, LOCALLY INCREASING THE ACCUMULATION RATE FOR A TIME SATURDAY EVENING. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40, BUT THEN FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z NAM mostly held. At 24 (18Z tomorrow) its actually colder at the surface, but a bit warmer at 850, than its 12Z counterpart at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam/s pretty pretty impressive for KPHL" also, 6abc/adam joeseph going 2-4 for 1-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 twister data snow map through 39.. most precip is out... http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=18&fhour=39¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Keeps the heaviest deform band inland/upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just arrived in Sea Isle City NJ....will provide obs for both here and NW Chesco. Can see weather there via webcam but will need neighbor's to measure any snow Currently Sea Isle 47.7 East Nantmeal 45.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 twister data snow map through 39.. most precip is out... http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Keeps the heaviest deform band inland/upstate Yeah, I noticed the most intense part of deform band on the 18z NAM lifts NE from the Susq. Valley into the Lehigh Valley just grazing the Delware Valley and staying north of PHL itself. 12z NAM took that band right through PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bottom line is the 18z Nam still gives that window of opportunity for snow between 18z Sat-03z Sun for SE PA while areas farther NW are getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, I noticed the most intense part of deform band on the 18z NAM lifts NE from the Susq. Valley into the Lehigh Valley just grazing the Delware Valley and staying north of PHL itself. 12z NAM took that band right through PHL. I believe it has to do with the orientation of the h7 low... its broad over PA int he beginning, and then elongates SW to NE at hour 27.. just NW of orientation? You got it, that heavy deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I believe it has to do with the orientation of the h7 low... its broad over PA int he beginning, and then elongates SW to NE at hour 27.. just NW of orientation? You got it, that heavy deform band. Yeah, you're right. about that elongation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just arrived in Sea Isle City NJ....will provide obs for both here and NW Chesco. Can see weather there via webcam but will need neighbor's to measure any snow Currently Sea Isle 47.7 East Nantmeal 45.9 What's the latest wxsim for good ol Chester County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Let me show everyone what i'm talking about: Notice the orientation of the h7 low straddling the PA/NJ border? now watch NW of that position on the sim radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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