famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It was in the last week of January of 2011. That was one heck of a burst of snow in the evening with lightning/thunder for much of the Philly area. As Rib mentioned, this could look more like Feb 5, 2001 - shifted further north and west. Tombo mentioned it first and I supported it thereafter. I don't know if you need to shift it northwest at all... maybe slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tombo mentioned it first and I supported it thereafter. I don't know if you need to shift it northwest at all... maybe slightly. I'm thinking a shift of 25 to 30 miles. I don't think King of Prussia gets a foot of snow with this event as it did on Feb 5 2001. But 30 miles NW of KoP might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm thinking a shift of 25 to 30 miles. I don't think King of Prussia gets a foot of snow with this event as it did on Feb 5 2001. But 30 miles NW of KoP might. Yeah, that seems about right. I don't even want to think about what even 4-6 inches of cement will do to the trees around here. I expect a lot of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm thinking a shift of 25 to 30 miles. I don't think King of Prussia gets a foot of snow with this event as it did on Feb 5 2001. But 30 miles NW of KoP might. OK, I'll count that as slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The gradient between nothing and 6 inches could be just a few miles, and I always keep an eye on the fall line in these types of events. My gut is still saying something unexpected will happen tomorrow with the deformation band setting up over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the October daily record at PHL is 2.1 inches from 1979. That maybe tough to beat down at the airport. Amazing what kind of airmass had to have been present in '79 when it occured earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the October daily record at PHL is 2.1 inches from 1979. That maybe tough to beat down at the airport. Amazing what kind of airmass had to have been present in '79 when it occured earlier in the month. Yeah, that must have been a crazy airmass for 2 inches at the airport. The one we have now is sort of like a winter one too,dew points are in the mid 20's. I think the airport should probably stay around an inch or less with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the October daily record at PHL is 2.1 inches from 1979. That maybe tough to beat down at the airport. Amazing what kind of airmass had to have been present in '79 when it occured earlier in the month. The amazing thing is that occurred on October 10th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro holds serve according to NYC crowd. Slightly warmer than NAM, but closer to NAM than GFS. Similar solution to 00z EC and current 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From earthlight in the NYC SF... Euro is a hint warmer than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like a blend of the GFS and NAM would be the best choice right now with regards to temp profiles. That leaves us with something close to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From earthlight in the NYC SF... Euro is a hint warmer than the NAM. I don't mean to say "throw it out", but aren't we closer to being in the NAM's wheelhouse, timewise, with this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 EC is very similar with QPF but slightly warmer than previous run. So not quite as snowy. Guess I'll keep 2-4" around Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't mean to say "throw it out", but aren't we closer to being in the NAM's wheelhouse, timewise, with this event? We're getting there, but the NAM has also warmed a bit (along with the EC) while the GFS cooled a smidge. So there's still room to manuever with all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will the warmer weather cut down on the snow in the interior Berks/Lehigh/Lebanon? Could this still end up as a rain event in the end and surprise us all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We're getting there, but the NAM has also warmed a bit (along with the EC) while the GFS cooled a smidge. So there's still room to manuever with all models. I guess that's why they call it model consensus building. They're all gravitating toward a common solution, and frankly, the agreement right now is quite remarkable among those three models. Besides, it's almost show time as it is. Only 16-18 hours before the flakes start flying in the NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will the warmer weather cut down on the snow in the interior Berks/Lehigh/Lebanon? Could this still end up as a rain event in the end and surprise us all? My take is that it warmed at 850mb due to less amped storm AND a lesser ccb band. However that warming should mainly affect those on the border of R/S. If your 850's were marginal before, you now have more issues to overcome potentially. That should affect Philly and immediate burbs much more than where you live. If I recall, you had 850's around -3C or so. That helps mightily. Again, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From the NYC thread. It shows prob of getting 18". 20-30% chance in Ooctober is insane when the greatest you've ever had was 2". I don't believe it has a chance to hit 18", but let's see what happens tomorrow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW, 12z EURO clown map from WUNDERGROUND show a 1-2" for 1-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ARW drops thickness lines between 36-39 and heavy qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW, 12z EURO clown map from WUNDERGROUND show a 1-2" for 1-95... Here's the maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know that the LP is not below 1000mb, but is there any chance of thunder snow event? I know there is not a lot of convective firepower with this storm but I would love to see in the heaviest snow bands a thunder snow to ring in the winter snow season and out with the last thunderstorm for the year in October. Wishful thinking on my part. I am glad someone else thinks we may see thunder snow- capping off this historical event - from Rob Guarino this afternoon Throw in the banding features as the storm rapidly explodes and someone may see THUNDERSNOW at 2"-3" per hour. This bulls-eye may sit over the far NW burbs of Montco-Bucks-Lehigh-Northampton Counties come tomorrow afternoon and or evening. It could even get into the King of Prussia to Langhorne area after 2pm. It's a war between the OCEAN FLOW-The solar radiation of October- and the dynamic cooling of an exploding storm ! Wow this could be one heck of a weather story come tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here's the maps... That's got DYL at 7-8" I believe. That'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's got DYL at 7-8" I believe. That'll do. Comparing this to Earl Barker's GFS and NAM snow maps, it would appear the EC says 6" at TTN, GFS has 3" and the NAM has 13". I kinda feel good to be going for the lowest number with the 2-4" I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Comparing this to Earl Barker's GFS and NAM snow maps, it would appear the EC says 6" at TTN, GFS has 3" and the NAM has 13". I kinda feel good to be going for the lowest number with the 2-4" I'm thinking. Do you have the flight ticket purchase site open in another tab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Comparing this to Earl Barker's GFS and NAM snow maps, it would appear the EC says 6" at TTN, GFS has 3" and the NAM has 13". I kinda feel good to be going for the lowest number with the 2-4" I'm thinking. So I take it without a change to the 18Z runs you are staying put? Perhaps not though, as 2-4 would be historic this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Chad Myers was on CNN a few minutes ago and said the most recent information (he referenced the last 1 1/2 hours) shows a very bad scenario. His map showed a decent sized area with 15" from above NYC to PHL (all on the NW side of the cities). It even had 10.3" in Norristown. Seems pretty aggressive to me. Has something dramatically changed.? NWS shows about 2" to 3" in Norristown in thier noon update. (Norristown is about 20 NW of center city Phila. ) My concern is for tree and wire fire calls. I would think the ground is too warm, but the trees in the cold air?? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Do you have the flight ticket purchase site open in another tab? No, but I did just check to make sure tickets were still available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So I take it without a change to the 18Z runs you are staying put? Perhaps not though, as 2-4 would be historic this time of year? 2-4" in October will get me back home. Still want to wait til I see the 18Z runs. If I booked now and then something unfortunate happened at 18Z, I'd be... displeased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Chad Myers was on CNN a few minutes ago and said the most recent information (he referenced the last 1 1/2 hours) shows a very bad scenario. His map showed a decent sized area with 15" from above NYC to PHL (all on the NW side of the cities). It even had 10.3" in Norristown. Seems pretty aggressive to me. Has something dramatically changed.? NWS shows about 2" to 3" in Norristown in thier noon update. (Norristown is about 20 NW of center city Phila. ) My concern is for tree and wire fire calls. I would think the ground is too warm, but the trees in the cold air?? Time will tell. A little drastic, but his opinion nonetheless. Mt Holly should be putting out their afternoon package over the next 15 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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