NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1243 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... UPDATE...MIDDAY GRIDS HAVE PUSHED THE SNOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL LOOK AT 12Z GFS AND HPC WWD GRAPHICS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MIGHT HAVE TO MAKE A BUMP IN ACCUMULATIONS. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Drexel+Hill&state=PA&site=PHI&lat=39.9492&lon=-75.3038 rain snow back in delco's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You think NWS will enter warning criteria late tonight / early tomorrow AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is for hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You think NWS will enter warning criteria late tonight / early tomorrow AM? I would be stunned if a warning wasn't in the afternoon package. Precip starts by 8am Saturday. They'd likely want to warn people today so they can stock up on all those things you really don't need to stock up on in this modern age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You think NWS will enter warning criteria late tonight / early tomorrow AM? for the far NW zones, absolutely... wouldn't be surprised to see some type of product for the immediate philly burbs ie; chesco/montgo./delco.. Maybe some type of winter weather advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm leaning towards 2-4" around Trenton after having reviewed the GFS and NAM. Could go either way still, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for the far NW zones, absolutely... wouldn't be surprised to see some type of product for the immediate philly burbs ie; chesco/montgo./delco.. Maybe some type of winter weather advisory? WWA would probably suffice for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This really all comes down to elevation and dynamics. If you have neither, I'm sorry my friend, you're toast. If you have both, congrats, prepare for 8+" of concrete. For 95, where there isn't elevation, you'll need impressive precip rates to see more than slush. In my opinion, the Fall Line will serve as the 2" contour, with areas above it seeing significant (> 2") snows and areas south of it seeing slush. I know this sounds like the GFS verbatim, but really it's a blend of all models weighted at 50%, and my gut weighted at 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 just a look at the 2 shortwaves responsible for the "HalloWEENIE" storm of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for the far NW zones, absolutely... wouldn't be surprised to see some type of product for the immediate philly burbs ie; chesco/montgo./delco.. Maybe some type of winter weather advisory? Bucks and Mont will probably get warnings because of the higher amounts up-county. I see no way they reach 60% confidence (I think that's the level they have to reach?) of 4" in Philadelphia County. I don't know if there's any weight given to the fact that this is such an early-season event, that would be the only reason to hoist warnings in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I posted this question in the Central PA, thread, but I'm not sure which thread Lancaster falls into, so I'll post it here too. Sorry if this is OT, but does anybody know if PennDOT is out treating the roads? Do they plan on going out tonight to do it, or is there no point since the preceding rain will wash away the salt? I was planning on heading out to Lancaster tomorrow, which is why I'm asking this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks realistic. Is that the latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I posted this question in the Central PA, thread, but I'm not sure which thread Lancaster falls into, so I'll post it here too. Sorry if this is OT, but does anybody know if PennDOT is out treating the roads? Do they plan on going out tonight to do it, or is there no point since the preceding rain will wash away the salt? I was planning on heading out to Lancaster tomorrow, which is why I'm asking this thread. They haven't done any up here yet. I'm pretty sure they will not due to the rain, especially in southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that the latest? Yes that is a direct link. http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png (Try pressing ctrl+F5 to reload the page without the cache if you think the image isn't updated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that the latest? Been that way since early this morning though. It hasn't been updated since their AFD said they were going to bump totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With pavement temps pretty warm to start no matter where you are, I'd guess PennDOT won't bother treating, as it will probably just get washed away by the rain or wet snow to start no matter where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They haven't done any up here yet. I'm pretty sure they will not due to the rain, especially in southern counties. ok, that's good to know. I'll probably stick to highways if I end up going. Best of luck, my in laws live in Nazareth, so they are with you in the bulls-eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So will this storm be like last febuary (I think) when it went from rain to sleet to 15 inches of snow in an 8 hour period only up to the north and west this time. Sans the 15 inches. No I don't expect anything big around my neck of the woods, then again nothing would surprise me. I don't know much but one thing I do know is the last 2-3 years have been years of extreme weather. So who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes that is a direct link. http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Thanks! The accumulation gradient is insane. Falls slap dab on Easton; whereas the difference in accumulations could possibly be 1 - 2" difference from Wilson/North Easton to South Easton. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that the latest? yes, and added another inch to the LV by expanding the 8" area, as well as extending amounts a little further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Using the actual page, instead of just the image, allows you to know exactly when it was updated... in this case, within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So will this storm be like last febuary (I think) when it went from rain to sleet to 15 inches of snow in an 8 hour period only up to the north and west this time. Sans the 15 inches. No I don't expect anything big around my neck of the woods, then again nothing would surprise me. I don't know much but one thing I do know is the last 2-3 years have been years of extreme weather. So who knows.... You are probably thinking of two February's ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Noon briefing if it hasn't been posted http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You are probably thinking of two February's ago. Maybe but i thought last year was when we got the 5 inches in the morning then that night numerous thundersnow experiences and snowfall rates up to 4 inches an hour in spots? Idk I could be wrong there been so many big storms everything is starting to blend together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 State College CWO just hoisted the WSWarnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Noon briefing if it hasn't been posted http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf highlights • General trend over the past 12 hours has been to expect a more intense system • All weather impact threats have worsened – Greater potential for heavy snowfall – Greater potential for coastal flooding – Greater potential for stronger and more widespread winds There is the threat of very significant snowfall for this early in the season • There is a very high risk of 4+ inches. • There is a high risk of 8+ inches. • There is a moderate risk of 12+ inches. •There is the threat of coastal flooding • There is a very high risk of moderate coastal flooding. • There is a moderate risk of major coastal flooding. • Rainfall amounts of one to two inches are expected; this is not expected to be significant enough to cause inland fresh water flooding. • There is a high risk of significant tree limb damage and associated power outages due to the combination of heavy snowfall, strong winds, and trees which still have their leaves due to the time of the year. Where the heaviest snow band sets up, snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches an hour, resulting in sharply reduced visibilities and very hazardous driving conditions. The most likely timing is Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening for the most intense snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Maybe but i thought last year was when we got the 5 inches in the morning then that night numerous thundersnow experiences and snowfall rates up to 4 inches an hour in spots? Idk I could be wrong there been so many big storms everything is starting to blend together. It was in the last week of January of 2011. That was one heck of a burst of snow in the evening with lightning/thunder for much of the Philly area. As Rib mentioned, this could look more like Feb 5, 2001 - shifted further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Maybe but i thought last year was when we got the 5 inches in the morning then that night numerous thundersnow experiences and snowfall rates up to 4 inches an hour in spots? Idk I could be wrong there been so many big storms everything is starting to blend together. You might be thinking of the late January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Noon briefing if it hasn't been posted http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf The heavy snow risk extends to the SE of the current snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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