NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam coming in west and ampd... Ruh roh... Closer to the sref mean , and the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One other thing I can't help but think about, is come Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Temps are supposed to dip to the upper 20's and lower 20's N+W. Possibility of whatever is on the road; puddles, slush, snow, wet leaves, etc. turning over to ice? Black ice perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm in the middle of the gradient on those model maps. This really feels like an anything could happen event. My brain says we won't see any accumulation but that gradient, yikes! Eh we all know your rooting for SLEET. HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lehigh-Susq. Valleys are the bullseye for sure on this 12Z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 And the 12z NAM says get ready for the rain for the city and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM brings crashing temps. and a changeover to snow after 18z down toward I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll see what the GFS and EC say... but at this point my leanings just went towards no trip. A NAM shift in the wrong direction at this point in the game is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam says Penn state whiteout game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll see what the GFS and EC say... but at this point my leanings just went towards no trip. A NAM shift in the wrong direction at this point in the game is not a good sign. Just talking about it cursed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM crushes central+E PA away from SE section. Still nice back-end snow in phl area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM crushes central+E PA away from SE section. Still nice back-end snow in phl area Yeah there should be a good amount of snow after the changeover. I'm still liking a 3-5" for the immediate NW around Wings Field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We'll see what the GFS and EC say... but at this point my leanings just went towards no trip. A NAM shift in the wrong direction at this point in the game is not a good sign. Yeah, but the nam seems to be spitting out quite a bit of precip 33-36 and after 33 it appears the temps have already crashed. Or am I wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah there should be a good amount of snow after the changeover. I'm still liking a 3-5" for the immediate NW around Wings Field Appears to be a 6-8 hour window on the NAM for snow south of the Lehigh Valley Looks like between 18z-02z is the hope for all the snow lovers across SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM clown map through 48 (take with a grain of salt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, but the nam seems to be spitting out quite a bit of precip 33-36 and after 33 it appears the temps have already crashed. Or am I wrong here? Looking at a 12 hour accumulated precip map off twisterdata gives the PHL area around .7 QPF after hour 33, which is when the temps have crashed. all of that should be snow, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 36 looks nice and S for Philly after front end rain. As sone have pointed out, the H7 low is right overhead SE Pa. For the beginning of the storm. That's textbook ugliness! It then slides e-ene from there and brings in cold air and ramps up the ccb. That seems like our only shot to get something decent outta the storm (if the nam verifies).. If if slides NNE, the change over would take entirely too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, but the nam seems to be spitting out quite a bit of precip 33-36 and after 33 it appears the temps have already crashed. Or am I wrong here? The big question for me is the track. It shifted significantly west. It may not be done shifting. If it wobbles back east at 18Z, then maybe game not over yet... but at this point I'd expect more nudge west at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know you've got to take those maps with a huge grain of salt but even if PHL and ILG got half of what is on that map we're still talking 5"+? I'd take that in a millisecond for October 29th. If this thing even wobbles 75 miles further east then we're talking about a tree crusher in Philly/ILG. NAM clown map through 48 (take with a grain of salt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The big question for me is the track. It shifted significantly west. It may not be done shifting. If it wobbles back east at 18Z, then maybe game not over yet... but at this point I'd expect more nudge west at 18Z. Well, let's hope you are wrong this time Ray As it stands, though, I would expect to see at least several hours of some crazy heavy snow falling from the sky. May not be enough to overcome the heavy rains we start off with and warmer temps to really accum to hstoric numbers, but I still feel confident for a go 3"+ in the Trenton area and up my way possibly more (mainly on grass of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319812222[/url]' post='1070878']Appears to be a 6-8 hour window on the NAM for snow south of the Lehigh Valley Looks like between 18z-02z is the hope for all the snow lovers across SE PA. Not in a spot to look at maps but it seems similar to 0z gfs just off of what I'm reading? If so, that seems rather realistic given climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Alright folks, it appears to be storm mode time. That means this thread will be for storm discussion only with any banter including any trolling of Mt. Holly I do having to go in another thread. Any banter posts in this thread will now be deleted with liberal use of the 5ppd designation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 By another thread I meant a banter thread. Whomever our Metfan is can create it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has expansive area of heavy snow Sat PM + wide swath along and E of blue ridge is hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam looks good for the NW suburbs at hr 30 and beyond. PHL looks good from 33 and beyond. Those are some impressive UVV numbers at h7. What a beautiful deformation band ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jeeeeeeeze! With that kind of precip rate, I wouldn't be suprised if the rain/snow line crashes faster than expected. I'm bringing up Feb 5, 2001 because I can and anyone who brought it up before is banned so ignore them. There was an incredible gradient with PHL getting 3", me in the immediate suburbs getting 7" and KOP getting a foot. That was the day I was about to make my first post on WWBB but lost power while doing so. Everyone needs to find the biggest hill near them and climb because I think even a couple hundred feet could make a significant difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jeeeeeeeze! With that kind of precip rate, I wouldn't be suprised if the rain/snow line crashes faster than expected. I'm bringing up Feb 5, 2001 because I can and anyone who brought it up before is banned so ignore them. There was an incredible gradient with PHL getting 3", me in the immediate suburbs getting 7" and KOP getting a foot. That was the day I was about to make my first post on WWBB but lost power while doing so. Everyone needs to find the biggest hill near them and climb because I think even a couple hundred feet could make a significant difference. Thank God it's not a work day. That was a TERRIBLE drive home that day. Worst of my (and countless others) life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't see this in October. I don't know if it will happen, but sure nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DYL looking good after hour 27. Seems like over 1.5" fall as snow. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_kdyl.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Agree that heavy precip rates are an important factor. 12z NAM has actually increased snow in immediate phl area vs 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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