easternsnowman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm honestly preparing for no snow at all as Mt. Holly is predicting(they removed snow out of the forecast) or maybe just a few flakes that mix in. They are the only ones saying that. How can they claim up to 10 inches not that far away down to nothing...does'nt make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest snow map from My Holly. Tight, tight gradient on the south side, but is probably a fair representation of what will happen below the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Kind of torn on what to do, reading NOAA's forecast makes me think I should stay in State College rather than head back to Chester County. Calling for 6-10 whereas Chestco is only going to get 1-3 based on their forecast. Is this a wise decision considering the warm air in the lower level threat in Chestco? I personally don't think State College gets 6-10". That's a little high that far back where SE PA also sees significant snow. That said, 1-3" for lower elevations in Chester seems reasonable. Higher elevation may be at 5-6". Again, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest snow map from My Holly. Tight, tight gradient on the south side, but is probably a fair representation of what will happen below the fall line. Definite shift to the NW in the battle zone area (northern Chester/MontCo/Bucks Co). It's going to be something to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They are the only ones saying that. How can they claim up to 10 inches not that far away down to nothing...does'nt make any sense. Makes perfect sense actually. I've seen 10-12" in the Lehigh Valley and south of quakertown got nothing in a similar setup. Add in that this is October and the ocean is warm, and any Met worth his/her salt is going to shy away from raw numbers. 750 temps are not your friend Philly south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Definite shift to the NW in the battle zone area (northern Chester/MontCo/Bucks Co). It's going to be something to watch unfold. Not sure it shifted really. The Lehigh Valley got totals upped, but they cut back on the bagginess on the south side. Note the distance between 1" and 4" is about 8 miles and from 1" to 8" is only about 20 miles. That's a much tighter gradient than last night had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also what a lot of people are seeming to forget (even co-workers, friends, family) is that elevation is going to play a HUGE role in this. 2" could fall for the general area with elevations no higher than 400 ft., but the hilly area's will see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County has rain beginning by morning mixing with snow during the late morning and over to snow by 2pm....heavy snow at times continues through 10pm Total Snow accumulations 6 to 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not sure it shifted really. The Lehigh Valley got totals upped, but they cut back on the bagginess on the south side. Note the distance between 1" and 4" is about 8 miles and from 1" to 8" is only about 20 miles. That's a much tighter gradient than last night had. Gradient was tightened......shifting snow totals lower across Chester/Mont./Bucks Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From what I've glanced at this morning.....I think 1-3" is a reasonable call for your area (as well as my location)....but I'd leave the door open for the totals in the 3-5" range if temps. aloft crash fast enough during the height of the precip. tomorrow. I'd be absolutely shocked if there was less than an inch with at this point, and just as shocked if our area ended up with anything over 6 inches. What is BS is that the past two years, we have not been the bulls-eye for anything but sleet and maybe a rain event and now before Halloween we are the bulls-eye for an 8-10 inch snow event. I know it is close to Halloween because we are being tricked and not really treated. To see the amounts that are being called for will mean one thing-- the biggest frickin flakes in years. The postings tomorrow will be discussing about how big and wet the snowflakes are and the real contest will be how quick the snows accumulate on the roads before the tree branches come tumbling down and the power goes out. Numerous other issues that will be discussed about the storm will be when the blade drops on the road, will they brine the roads, road closures because of falling branches and trees, how wet the snow will be to shovel (a lot of heart attacks) snow loading problems and roof collapses and of course the early use of anti-skid and or salt. I am really hoping to see thunder snow in the postings since it appears banding may take place but that is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What is BS is that the past two years, we have not been the bulls-eye for anything but sleet and maybe a rain event and now before Halloween we are the bulls-eye for an 8-10 inch snow event. I know it is close to Halloween because we are being tricked and not really treated. To see the amounts that are being called for will mean one thing-- the biggest frickin flakes in years. The postings tomorrow will be discussing about how big and wet the snowflakes are and the real contest will be how quick the snows accumulate on the roads before the tree branches come tumbling down and the power goes out. Numerous other issues that will be discussed about the storm will be when the blade drops on the road, will they brine the roads, road closures because of falling branches and trees, how wet the snow will be to shovel (a lot of heart attacks) snow loading problems and roof collapses and of course the early use of anti-skid and or salt. I am really hoping to see thunder snow in the postings since it appears banding may take place but that is still up in the air. you are a ray of sunshine ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I personally don't think State College gets 6-10". That's a little high that far back where SE PA also sees significant snow. That said, 1-3" for lower elevations in Chester seems reasonable. Higher elevation may be at 5-6". Again, JMHO. Penn State plays Illinois in State College tomorrow at 3:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Penn State plays Illinois in State College tomorrow at 3:30. that would be epic then! Of all the games I ever attended there, I cannot recall ever getting a snow storm during a game. Squalls maybe, but not a storm. In that case, I'd stay for the game. It's rare to see a game in the snow. Would be wonderful memories, especially if we win. You can get 1-3" in Chester 6-10 times a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Penn State plays Illinois in State College tomorrow at 3:30. Hopefully it;s awesome! Back in our Area, I think Mt.Holly has the right idea, but i'd say thats a pretty conservative map. Still think (more of) bucks/montgo/chesco should have been included in the 1" line. DOesn't seem entirely outta the question at the moment. Other than that, it's pretty good map. Talk about a gradient setting up. Also, HPC has this to say in regards to the kicker shortwave our west: PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS THE STRONGEST/SHARPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH ITS PROGRESSION. AS THE FLOW UPSTREAM IS FLATTENING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL...IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION HERE. Can't wait to see the awesome picks that are going to come out of this white super pasty snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 and then the previously posted Mt. Holly Map. let's see who wins this one?! and i'm talking I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The thing no one is talking about - and we saw this a lot the last 2 years with these bombs - is the gradient on the backside. Doesn't matter much for our subforum, but a lot of maps I'm seeing have too much back into Central PA, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z snow maps from meso scale models and 6z snow maps incase they wernt posted 0z arw 6z gfs 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The thing no one is talking about - and we saw this a lot the last 2 years with these bombs - is the gradient on the backside. Doesn't matter much for our subforum, but a lot of maps I'm seeing have too much back into Central PA, imo. yea, this is true. If thats the case and this storm bombs quickly, i think they should bring that 1-3 further south and east. This storm is going to be driven by dynamics for the cities and coast to see snow. If this thing bombs out big time and brings the cold air to the surface, places east of the river could have a surprise also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The thing no one is talking about - and we saw this a lot the last 2 years with these bombs - is the gradient on the backside. Doesn't matter much for our subforum, but a lot of maps I'm seeing have too much back into Central PA, imo. Yeah, but i think you're seeing these probabilty maps with huge swaths of snow back to state college. While i dont think there will be an extreme gradient as tight as dec 09, could def see something sharp. The CCB will create extreme banding underneath it. Those lucky to get a band, awesome ! 10-15 miles on either side, not soo lucky, especially as the storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs, snowmap off stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 09z SREF is slightly cooler with the northern extent of the 850mb 0C line, somewhat SE with the axis of heaviest precip, and a tad SE with the 1 inch liquid line, and more expansive with the western extent of lower amounts NW of the 1 inch line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am not sure where to post this, it really has no subforum, but any of you guys care to take a stab at what I might expect up at the house in Big Bass Lake, PA. It's Gouldsboro, just SE of Scranton, elevation 2k ft on top of Poconos. Worth a trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am not sure where to post this, it really has no subforum, but any of you guys care to take a stab at what I might expect up at the house in Big Bass Lake, PA. It's Gouldsboro, just SE of Scranton, elevation 2k ft on top of Poconos. Worth a trip? id go, if you are a snow fan. They should do well up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 When do things really expect to get cranking for the Lehigh Valley tomorrow intensity/accumulation wise? I have an early afternoon flight into Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 When do things really expect to get cranking for the Lehigh Valley tomorrow intensity/accumulation wise? I have an early afternoon flight into Allentown. I'd try to get an earlier flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ray, you flying out to see this rare october event? Possibly historic I might add? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lovely representation of a phase with mid-lat blocking and 50/50 low in place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm in the middle of the gradient on those model maps. This really feels like an anything could happen event. My brain says we won't see any accumulation but that gradient, yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ray, you flying out to see this rare october event? Possibly historic I might add? There are two red eyes from SLC to JFK tonight. That give me a lot of leeway to wait as long as I can, and wait I shall. I'll probably wait until the 18Z NAM and GFS come out before making the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There are two red eyes from SLC to JFK tonight. That give me a lot of leeway to wait as long as I can, and wait I shall. I'll probably wait until the 18Z NAM and GFS come out before making the call. Oh snapp, Trenton is doomed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.