Animal Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cricketts... weenies are in bed! GFS did not have a storm 18 hours ago. This run was a dud for the I 95 zone. Still feel 1-3 is possible after some decent raw rains. Look out Tobyahanna, PA and Highland Lakes,NJ! 1200 ft or higher in elevation should due well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In Mid Atlantic thread, it is reported that Ukie is colder and less wet. But it looks good to folks worried about a warm boundary layer or warm 850 on the GFS. Yeah it's crickets, but what a great Cards Rangers game going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Balaris just now 1:20am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is a hit. Beautiful CCB over us. Cooler than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro from earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 there is always thanksgiving...just weeks away Working. Next scheduled trip home is Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sweatpants, shovels and ice melt .. It is still October ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 SV GFS at hour 45...this isn't even BL issues...it's just warm -- the 850 line is west of Philly. It crashes east afterwards but most of the heavier precip is done by 45 except for N/W which get secondary band to ride NE. It does change over into Philly by 48 but it's a bit warm aloft during the main course of the storm. GFS still squeezes a couple of inches out though in the city, more N/W. Regarding the ECM, it does bring snow into the city between 2 and 5 PM and continues to snow through 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is a huge hit for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Philly and its immediate burbs change to rain at some point midday Saturday. It's almost exactly like the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is a huge hit for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Philly and its immediate burbs change to rain at some point midday Saturday. It's almost exactly like the 0z run. Mt Holly ups the ante. Now calling for 6-10" in the watch area versus 4-6" previously: A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z SAT WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF QPF WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AND PERSIST 12 TO 18 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS FAVOR SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE A SOAKING RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKE MEANDER ACROSS A LIKE BETWEEN SRN BERKS COUNTY PA AND SRN MORRIS CTY NJ. EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT...AND OUR LATEST TOTALS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. OUR TOTALS ARE STILL LOWER THAN THOSE OFFERED BY NCEP-WWD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT DUE TO THE FACT THAT MANY LEAVES REMAIN ON THE TREES AND THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW WILL PROBABLY BRING DOWN NUMEROUS BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES. PRECIPITATION ENDS SAT NIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLR BY SUNRISE SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would not be surprised if someone in the Poconos cracked 15" from this storm. I can't believe I'm typing that in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 6z GFS is a huge hit for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Philly and its immediate burbs change to rain at some point midday Saturday. It's almost exactly like the 0z run. Verbatim, Philly is rain until between 5 and 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I guess at this point I see Reading/Berks getting about 3-6....HOPING we are far enough north/west for the rain to stay south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How Much For Philly = 2.2 inches Wilmington - 2.0 Trenton = 2.3 Wings Field - 5 Allentown - 8 Reading - 7 Doylestown - 8 Edison - 2 Mt Pocono 10 Highlansd Lakes, NJ - 13 Morristown - 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Un. Freaking. Believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What abot the 6Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC Maps from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Un. Freaking. Believable. Thet Cardinals...I agree Historic snow storm - I agree Fly back from KAnsas City this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 3z srefs snow probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anyone want to venture a forecast for DYL? I'm thinking mainly rain here, accumulating snow after dark (6PM) on grassy surfaces....1-3". Hoping for some more optimism from others. Warm layer at 750mb seems like the killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 PHL 1-3 TTN 3-5 ABE 5-8 LNS 4-8 ACY C-1 EWR 3-6 AVP 4-8 MPO 7-12 These are my predictions. Happy Halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC SNOWFALL GUID WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC SNOWFALL GUID WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads? Roads may be more of an issue due to fallen trees, rather than snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC SNOWFALL GUID WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads? Rates will be high enough to overcome the initially warm roads (if the 6-8 verifies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>HPC</a> SNOWFALL GUIDWHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A <u><font size="4">STRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ</font></u> AND THE <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>RIDGE</a> AND VALLEY REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE INITIAL <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WATCH</a> A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVY' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>ADVY</a>/<a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WARNING</a>/UPGRADE MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WATCH</a> <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off</a> WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads? You guys get that much, no way it doesn't accum on the roadways. Was thinking of doing a snow chase, but don't know If I wanna go all the way to the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some rough BUFKIT estimates from 06z runs. Impressive especially south central to NE Pa ILG NAM 2.00 qpf - 50% snow ILG GFS 1.95 qpf - 20% snow PHL NAM 1.92 qpf - 60% snow PHL GFS 1.98 qpf - 20% snow RDG - NAM 1.31 qpf - 100% snow RDG - GFS 2.28 qpf - 100% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Rates will be high enough to overcome the initially warm roads (if the 6-8 verifies) Thanks, my son has his last midget football game tomorrow at 4pm and am hoping he still gets to play, I don't see them cancelling it if the roads are just wet, but if it starts laying then thats another story. Appreciate the replies. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anyone want to venture a forecast for DYL? I'm thinking mainly rain here, accumulating snow after dark (6PM) on grassy surfaces....1-3". Hoping for some more optimism from others. Warm layer at 750mb seems like the killer. From what I've glanced at this morning.....I think 1-3" is a reasonable call for your area (as well as my location)....but I'd leave the door open for the totals in the 3-5" range if temps. aloft crash fast enough during the height of the precip. tomorrow. I'd be absolutely shocked if there was less than an inch with at this point, and just as shocked if our area ended up with anything over 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm honestly preparing for no snow at all as Mt. Holly is predicting(they removed snow out of the forecast) or maybe just a few flakes that mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Kind of torn on what to do, reading NOAA's forecast makes me think I should stay in State College rather than head back to Chester County. Calling for 6-10 whereas Chestco is only going to get 1-3 based on their forecast. Is this a wise decision considering the warm air in the lower level threat in Chestco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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