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10/29 Snowloween -- Thread 1


phlwx

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SV GFS at hour 45...this isn't even BL issues...it's just warm -- the 850 line is west of Philly. It crashes east afterwards but most of the heavier precip is done by 45 except for N/W which get secondary band to ride NE. It does change over into Philly by 48 but it's a bit warm aloft during the main course of the storm. GFS still squeezes a couple of inches out though in the city, more N/W.

Regarding the ECM, it does bring snow into the city between 2 and 5 PM and continues to snow through 8.

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6z GFS is a huge hit for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Philly and its immediate burbs change to rain at some point midday Saturday. It's almost exactly like the 0z run.

Mt Holly ups the ante. Now calling for 6-10" in the watch area versus 4-6" previously:

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA

COAST AT 12Z SAT WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE

DAY THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF QPF WILL SPREAD

SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AND PERSIST 12 TO 18 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS

THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS FAVOR SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE A SOAKING RAIN WITH

1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL LIKE MEANDER ACROSS

A LIKE BETWEEN SRN BERKS COUNTY PA AND SRN MORRIS CTY NJ. EXACT

SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT...AND OUR LATEST TOTALS

ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. OUR TOTALS ARE STILL LOWER THAN THOSE

OFFERED BY NCEP-WWD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT DUE TO

THE FACT THAT MANY LEAVES REMAIN ON THE TREES AND THE WEIGHT OF THE

SNOW WILL PROBABLY BRING DOWN NUMEROUS BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES. PRECIPITATION ENDS SAT NIGHT AND SKIES

SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLR BY SUNRISE SUN.

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HPC SNOWFALL GUID

WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8

INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY

REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE

COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE

INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE

NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE

MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads?

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HPC SNOWFALL GUID

WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8

INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY

REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE

COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE

INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE

NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE

MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads?

Roads may be more of an issue due to fallen trees, rather than snowfall.

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HPC SNOWFALL GUID

WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A STRIPE OF 6-8

INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ AND THE RIDGE AND VALLEY

REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE

COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE

INITIAL WATCH A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE

NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO ADVY/WARNING/UPGRADE

MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS WATCH

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads?

Rates will be high enough to overcome the initially warm roads (if the 6-8 verifies)

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<a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=HPC' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>HPC</a> SNOWFALL GUID

WHICH IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE PUTS A <u><font size="4">STRIPE OF 6-8

INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ</font></u> AND THE <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=RIDGE' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>RIDGE</a> AND VALLEY

REGION...INCL THE POCONOS WHERE DOUBLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE

COLLABORATED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE EXPANDED THE

INITIAL <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WATCH</a> A BIT. PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER START TIME MAY BE

NEEDED...BUT THE DAYSHIFT MAY BE WELL INTO <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ADVY' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>ADVY</a>/<a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WARNING' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WARNING</a>/UPGRADE

MODE TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT ADJUSTING THE START TIME OF THIS <a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WATCH' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>WATCH</a>

<a href='http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off</a>

WOW I still can't beleive it, IF IF we get 6-8(BIG IF) does anyone think the roads will be an issue, or with that amoubnt it is more just wet than white on the roads?

You guys get that much, no way it doesn't accum on the roadways. Was thinking of doing a snow chase, but don't know If I wanna go all the way to the poconos.

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Rates will be high enough to overcome the initially warm roads (if the 6-8 verifies)

Thanks, my son has his last midget football game tomorrow at 4pm and am hoping he still gets to play, I don't see them cancelling it if the roads are just wet, but if it starts laying then thats another story. Appreciate the replies.:snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

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Anyone want to venture a forecast for DYL?

I'm thinking mainly rain here, accumulating snow after dark (6PM) on grassy surfaces....1-3". Hoping for some more optimism from others. Warm layer at 750mb seems like the killer.

From what I've glanced at this morning.....I think 1-3" is a reasonable call for your area (as well as my location)....but I'd leave the door open for the totals in the 3-5" range if temps. aloft crash fast enough during the height of the precip. tomorrow.

I'd be absolutely shocked if there was less than an inch with at this point, and just as shocked if our area ended up with anything over 6 inches.

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Kind of torn on what to do, reading NOAA's forecast makes me think I should stay in State College rather than head back to Chester County. Calling for 6-10 whereas Chestco is only going to get 1-3 based on their forecast. Is this a wise decision considering the warm air in the lower level threat in Chestco?

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