jgir Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thankx Tombo ... appreciate your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 John Bolaris twitter: "BIGGEST SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE FOR OCTOBER FROM PHILLY TO NYC TO BOSTON. ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY" FWIW, Did he define "biggest" like in 2001? Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 iff the low takes the nam track from west chester to wings field to willow grove, lancaster reading allentown in that zone...if its closer... its lehigh valley to the pocs.... So basically my house wins either way. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So basically my house wins either way. I'll take it. yea i think your area is sitting well, unless this thing hugs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 a line from west chester to wings field to willow grove on north and west is basically a 8-10 inch ray martin hybrid crusher on the 0z nam So long trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yea i think your area is sitting well, unless this thing hugs the coast. Nah, it probably won't hug the coast. It seems like the models have converged on a solution near the benchmark and are jumping around slightly east and west with each run now. If the storm happens in a way similar to the consensus, congrats Euro because it has shown this thing since the beginning of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 nam clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know that the LP is not below 1000mb, but is there any chance of thunder snow event? I know there is not a lot of convective firepower with this storm but I would love to see in the heaviest snow bands a thunder snow to ring in the winter snow season and out with the last thunderstorm for the year in October. Wishful thinking on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z RGEM is almost exactly like the NAM in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 nam clown map... NAM also shows pretty warm 750 mb layer (or around there) for a good portion of the storm (according to twisterdata) in addition to closer to surface temp issues. Not sure how much I buy this clown map...or if anyone buys it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z RGEM is almost exactly like the NAM in terms of precip. Hard to tell from graphics but looks like half-decent back-end snows in phl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM also shows pretty warm 750 mb layer (or around there) for a good portion of the storm (according to twisterdata) in addition to closer to surface temp issues. Not sure how much I buy this clown map...or if anyone buys it. that would just aid in craptastic ratios and horrible snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Kathy Orr 11pm news: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Did anyone catch Glenn's forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 worthy for a trip home? Its October... 3" would make this worthy of a trip home. Plus I haven't been home in over 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Did anyone catch Glenn's forecast? He showed the different models but no totals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM also shows pretty warm 750 mb layer (or around there) for a good portion of the storm (according to twisterdata) in addition to closer to surface temp issues. Not sure how much I buy this clown map...or if anyone buys it. NAM profiles look OK to me in phl area - surface is only issue. If they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS loooking toasty... ALA a tad west.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like this GFS run but the west trend can stop now...at least we're close to the event so there's not much more time for major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not shy on QPF, but 850's are on the 1-95 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2m temps. SLP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 While I'm not a met, I've listened to a lot of authoritative folks (who know waaaaayyyyy more than me) who have cautioned that the NAM should have a better handle on layer temps at this point in time. But yeah, GFS verbatim is a lot warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Allentown area going to be the sweet spot on the GFS clown maps this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 42 is def all rain for PHL: as well as 45.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z RGEM HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 48 for philly is questionable.. this is where the cold air crashes: still a shallow warm layer just above the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like this GFS run but the west trend can stop now...at least we're close to the event so there's not much more time for major changes. I agree. The LP is at 1000mb and dropping when it hits the sweetspot. You are right- not much room to change except to deepen the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Its October... 3" would make this worthy of a trip home. Plus I haven't been home in over 2 months. there is always thanksgiving...just weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How far nw from phl would you have to go to find a decent snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cricketts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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