tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 by hr 42, the burbs with greater than 400 ft in elev and 20 miles west of 95 are starting to change over...skew t for berwyn area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 45 has phl over to snow or in the process as the ccb is starting ti rip over them... central chest co through lanc below freezing and getting hvy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 48 hvy snow falling in the city and burbs as the dynamics take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 48 hvy snow falling in the city and burbs as the dynamics take over IS NICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 45 has phl over to snow or in the process as the ccb is starting ti rip over them... central chest co through lanc below freezing and getting hvy snow amazing what happens between 42-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 snow depth at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM more toned down and....sane not that 6" snow this time of year is sane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Unlike the SREFs, NAM looks a little further east compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Seems quicker to kick out the CCB? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=00&fhour=51¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false also, SLP stays around 1000mb near Jersey.. 18z NAM had it down around 994ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like a solid 4-8" event for just NW of the big cities based on this run. Not bad!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Amazing to see this kind of run in October. I can't recall anything like it this close to Philly/the NJ shore. The 'crash' between 42-45 is similar to a bunch of the most recent winter events we've had as the low pulls out to the East. This is getting 'realer' by the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Saturday p.m. (42z-48z) would be one heck of a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 sunday morning the nam has 25-30 for the city for lows...i can imagine lehigh valley and colder burbs are 20-25...thats pretty dang cold for late oct...poss record lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z nam for 21z sat has the 500 vort a big sharper/ stgronger.. 0z nam a litle broader and tbe, weaker. I think thats what you see a more east solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Saturday p.m. (42z-48z) would be one heck of a show. looks like afternoon into early eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Record october snow at phl or other local stations?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z eta and rsm...one heck of a ccb on the eta and rsm, though the rsm would most likely waste atleast half the precip on rain for the city and nearby burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This NAM run is much more realistic than 18z, warm temps slightly and I think it's very close to the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What's interesting is that monthly rainfall totals were shattered in August in a matter of days. The October snowfall record could be shattered in hours in Philly... Different precip type, but ironic in the same year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z nam for 21z sat has the 500 vort a big sharper/ stgronger.. 0z nam a litle broader and tbe, weaker. I think thats what you see a more east solution here. yea, the h5 low is weaker. the ridge out west is a good bit flatter, which is causing the trof not to amplify as much thus a weaker further east solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Unfortunately I will be down in Sea Isle City this weekend....putting a weather station on the roof of my place at the shore. I would imagine NW Chesco will have a little better shot at snow. Just ran the Wxsim but it is very unimpressed using the 18z data. Lots of mixing with 1 to 2 slushy inches. I would expect my location with a bit of elevation here may do pretty well. Will have to find a neighbor and compare what Iceman56 has in Glenmoore to here...Unless I can convince the wife to delay our trip till Sat night....(the life of a snow weenie!) Should be an interesting! You are in good hands Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0Z NAM is literally 5-9" at TTN. Cutting that in half, 2-4", would still be remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Cancelled our weekend trip to Cape May after looking at 18z models. Can't pass up the chance for snow in October Due to the early committment, I want to place a vote for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 phl is mixing with snow at hr 42, with a surf temp of 37...frz level around 975 mb... all snow by hr 45 with atleast .6 as frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0Z NAM is literally 5-9" at TTN. Cutting that in half, 2-4", would still be remarkable. worthy for a trip home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 a line from west chester to wings field to willow grove on north and west is basically a 8-10 inch ray martin hybrid crusher on the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tombo, where do you see the heaviest potential snowfall setting up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tombo, where do you see the heaviest potential snowfall setting up? iff the low takes the nam track from west chester to wings field to willow grove, lancaster reading allentown in that zone...if its closer... its lehigh valley to the pocs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks Greg! I will be following closely Paul You are in good hands Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 John Bolaris twitter: "BIGGEST SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE FOR OCTOBER FROM PHILLY TO NYC TO BOSTON. ARRIVAL TIME SATURDAY" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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