Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs buffkit numbers phl 0 rdg 0 ttn 1 abe 8.1 ilg 1.7 acy 0 RDG is zero?? If ABE is 8", I'd think they'd come in at 3-4" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319764094[/url]' post='1068062']RDG is zero?? If ABE is 8", I'd think they'd come in at 3-4" at least. Bufkit is trash lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bufkit is trash lately. Thanks. No way ILG gets snow and Reading does not. ABE is essentially in the same valley system as RDG, so temp structure is similar to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 when does the 21z SREF come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 RDG is zero?? If ABE is 8", I'd think they'd come in at 3-4" at least. What is up with that...one model calls for 20 for reading while another calls for 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 when does the 21z SREF come out? 930-945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What is up with that...one model calls for 20 for reading while another calls for 0 all is well ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 930-945 thx Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z gfs accum snowfall Someone doesn't like Montgomery County.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone doesn't like Montgomery County.lol thats pretty generous for philly. Per soundings, philly is basically a r/s mix for the last portion. Rdg changes over around hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 all is well ... those coolwx soundings are bs....you gotta correlate it with the thermal profile... for instance look at philly. That freezing line is way to high in the atmosphere. Helps to compare it with a skew t or txt sounding to forecast thermal profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 thats pretty generous for philly. Per soundings, philly is basically a r/s mix for the last portion. Rdg changes over around hr 45 Yeah, I wouldn't expect more than an inch at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Unfortunately I will be down in Sea Isle City this weekend....putting a weather station on the roof of my place at the shore. I would imagine NW Chesco will have a little better shot at snow. Just ran the Wxsim but it is very unimpressed using the 18z data. Lots of mixing with 1 to 2 slushy inches. I would expect my location with a bit of elevation here may do pretty well. Will have to find a neighbor and compare what Iceman56 has in Glenmoore to here...Unless I can convince the wife to delay our trip till Sat night....(the life of a snow weenie!) Should be an interesting! Cancelled our weekend trip to Cape May after looking at 18z models. Can't pass up the chance for snow in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21Z SREF are more amplified then 15Z, warmer as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 those coolwx soundings are bs....you gotta correlate it with the thermal profile... for instance look at philly. That freezing line is way to high in the atmosphere. Helps to compare it with a skew t or txt sounding to Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not thinking anyone outside the Poconos or NW Jersey sees double digits. In fact, I have a hard time seeing ABE get 6" unless that def band comes in on the high end of potential. Below the fall line, I have a hard seeing much more than 2". Not too far off from your thinking really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z srefs mslp good bit further se than the gfs...continues though to bring in a good slug of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not thinking anyone outside the Poconos or NW Jersey sees double digits. In fact, I have a hard time seeing ABE get 6" unless that def band comes in on the high end of potential. Below the fall line, I have a hard seeing much more than 2". Not too far off from your thinking really. my statement wasn't directed at you, it was just a generalization that those coolwx graphics, if its close to freezing, though its rain, interprets it as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z srefs mslp good bit further se than the gfs...continues though to bring in a good slug of precip The key is how fast temps crash and turns precip to snow and sticks to surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bit OT, but god it is too early for this sh*t....I thought we had a few more months before we had to start living and dying by the model runs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The key is how fast temps crash and turns precip to snow and sticks to surfaces. yea, gotta see how fast the low bombs and where the ccb sets up, thats the whole reason we are talking snow right now is because of the dynamics...the snow probability maps on e wall will be telling but they dont come out till later....namma jamma time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z gfs accum snowfall LOL I'm in the jackpot, now that is NOT where I want to be right now, oh well it still should be fun though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yea, gotta see how fast the low bombs and where the ccb sets up, thats the whole reason we are talking snow right now is because of the dynamics...the snow probability maps on e wall will be telling but they dont come out till later....namma jamma time This storm has high bust potential and makes me nervous. I hate depending on bombing and ccb setup locations. That's a crap shoot, and we usually lose more of those than we win. I would think October raises the stakes that much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here is the 15z sref for snow probabilities for 1,4,8,12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If someone here brought up Feb 5, 2001 as an analog they are banned. That is my analog and nobody will steal it from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z srefs mslp good bit further se than the gfs...continues though to bring in a good slug of precip Look a little further west than 15z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here is the 15z sref for snow probabilities for 1,4,8,12 inches And here's the 21z. Same general locations of the banding, but the area of snow extends much farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here is the 15z sref for snow probabilities for 1,4,8,12 inches Most would be thrilled with this in January... Will be interesting to watch in the next 36 hours. What I find remarkably interesting is the remarkable similarity that this painted stripe on the SREF holds to recent winter storms the past two years. That and the shifting of models towards the West and a jog to the East at the end. I know, I know, it's a different time, season and set up, but just sayin'... That said, I've been struggling with believing that this could be when, in reality, the consensus of the models makes this seem a damn decent snow plaster job in the Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ^^ talk about a increase in perecentages...whew. anymore west, gonna get reallly tough around here to say the S word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man, those SREF probs are just incredible. Who could have imagined seeing something like that in October. If the SREF is still showing something like that at 21Z tomorrow, I'll buy in. SREF is pretty good within 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is pretty much the same as 18z, except maybe a hair east and the precip totals aren't as crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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