tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not necessarily, that is actually a fairly classic pressure plot from a nor'easter. yea, you are correct just saw the indiv ens members, they are pretty tightly stacked...why is the baginess favored to the east? Some kind of inverted trof or what not accompany noreasters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Weekend rule. Game, set match. Snowing in the hills around Wilkes-Barre. Bear Creek interchange probably has an inch by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS ensembles are way west, jackpot from Susquehanna Valley to the Poconos. Me and Mike would be in heaven if those verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This could be a good analog for how snowfall accumulations look by elevation dependent not so much amounts. I remember this storm. It was raining in the morning and the mets were thinking only 1-3. Dynamics took over and sh*t hit the fan, 7-8 inches later and several large white pine branches down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Weekend rule. Game, set match. Snowing in the hills around Wilkes-Barre. Bear Creek interchange probably has an inch by now. Wouldn't it be nice if we could filter that snow down to the valley this weekend (I'll be back there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Only about 380' AMSL here, but still am expecting anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. Even seeing flakes would begin the weenie winter! What a weekend! Snow and DAWGS football! This could be a good analog for how snowfall accumulations look by elevation dependent not so much amounts. I remember this storm. It was raining in the morning and the mets were thinking only 1-3. Dynamics took over and sh*t hit the fan, 7-8 inches later and several large white pine branches down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 gfs for phl is a little better on the backside for the UV's in the snow growth region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Think of how a storm generally occludes, moving away from the triple point of the warm, occluded and cold fronts where pressure is already naturally low and into the high pressure usually situated off to the northwest. yea, you are correct just saw the indiv ens members, they are pretty tightly stacked...why is the baginess favored to the east? Some kind of inverted trof or what not accompany noreasters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Think of how a storm generally occludes, moving away from the triple point of the warm, occluded and cold fronts where pressure is already naturally low and into the high pressure usually situated off to the northwest. ray does the 33 inch buffkit for ttn make you shake violently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good call, that's not a bad analog at all. Very astute. This could be a good analog for how snowfall accumulations look by elevation dependent not so much amounts. I remember this storm. It was raining in the morning and the mets were thinking only 1-3. Dynamics took over and sh*t hit the fan, 7-8 inches later and several large white pine branches down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 my location had 17" during that storm and this is less than 400 feet amsl. and not to play devil's advocate, but based on these i do not see a strict elevation difference...more of a north to south and east to west variation based on latitude and position of the low. ABUS34 KPHL 071528 PNSPHL PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-NJZ001-007>010-012>026-DEZALL- MDZ008-012-015-019-020-071800- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1030 AM EST WED FEB 7 2001 ...FINAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)... ......PENNSYLVANIA...... ...BERKS COUNTY... BECHTELSVILLE 13 BLUE MARSH DAM 10.5 EAGLES POINT 13 GOUGLIERSVILLE 14 HAMBURG 6 KUTZTOWN 10 LENHARTSVILLE 8 MAPLE GROVE PARK 12 MERTZTOWN 9 MOHNTON 14.5 MORGANTOWN 10.5 READING 10 ROBESONIA 11 SINKING SPRING 11 STONEY CREEK 6 STOUCHBURG 6 ...BUCKS COUNTY... CHALFONT 14.7 DOYLESTOWN 8 FRICKS 12 FURLONG 8 LEVITTOWN 4 NESHAMINY FALLS 3 NEW HOPE 7 NEWTOWN 6.5 PIPERSVILLE 16 SELLERSVILLE 13.5 SOUTHAMPTON 9 SPRINGTOWN 18 WARRINGTON 8.3 ...CARBON COUNTY... ALBRIGHTSVILLE 11 JIM THORPE 9 LEHIGHTON 9 MECKSVILLE 10 ...CHESTER COUNTY... BERWYN 10.5 CHESTERBROOK 10 ELVERSON 10 EXTON 9 GLENMOORE 7.4 HONEYBROOK 7 KIMBERTON 11 VALLEY FORGE 6 WEST BRANDYWINE TWP 6 WEST CHESTER 5.5 ...DELAWARE COUNTY... CLIFTON HEIGHTS 5.4 CRUM CREEK 4 NEWTOWN 7.5 RADNOR 12.4 ...LEHIGH COUNTY... ALLENTOWN (CITY) 12.1 ALBURTIS 16 BREINIGSVILLE 12 COOPERSBURG 17.5 OREFIELD 13.5 SALISBURY TWP 17 SCHNECKSVILLE 14 WHITEHALL MALL 12 ...MONROE COUNTY... BLAKESLEY 10 BRODHEADSVILLE 12 BUSHKILL 13 EAST STROUDSBURG 13.5 HAMILTON TWP 13 POCONO SUMMIT 10 SAYLORSBURG 16 SCIOTA 12 SHAWNEE 12 STROUDSBURG 10.5 TOBYHANNA 8 ...MONTGOMERY COUNTY... BLUEBELL 9 EAGLEVILLE 13 GREEN LANE 8.5 HATFIELD 11 HUNTINGTON VALLEY 7 KING OF PRUSSIA 13 PALM 14 PERKIOMENVILLE 12 PLYMOUTH MEETING 8.5 POTTSTOWN 12 ROYERSFORD 9 WHITEMARSH 9 WYNNEWOOD 7.5 ...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY... BANGOR 12 BATH 13 BETHLEHEM 12 BUSHKILL TWP 14 EASTON 13 FORKS TWP 16.6 NORTHAMPTON BORO 9 PALMER TWP 17 SOUTH BETHLEHEM 16 WILLIAMS TWP 18 WIND GAP 14.0 ...PHILADELPHIA... FRNAKLIN INSTITUE 4 PHIL. INTL. AIRPORT 3 SOMERTON 5.5 ......NEW JERSEY...... ...ATLANTIC COUNTY... ABSECON TRACE ESTELLE MANOR 0.8 ...BURLINGTON COUNTY... ATSION 1.2 BORDENTOWN 3.5 BROWNS MILLS 2.7 MAPLE SHADE 2 MARLTON 2 MOORESTOWN 3 MOUNT HOLLY (NWS) 2.1 MOUNT LAUREL 2.5 ...CAMDEN COUNTY... CHERRY HILL 2 CHESILHURST 3 PENNSAUKEN 2 SOMERDALE 3.5 ...CUMBERLAND COUNTY... SEABROOK 0.6 ...GLOUCESTER COUNTY... GLASSBORO 1.7 MULLICA HILL 3 SWEDESBORO 3.5 VERGA 3.2 WEST DEPTFORD 3 ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... ALEXANDRIA 16 CALIFON 18 FLEMINGTON 13 FRENCHTOWN 17.5 KINGWOOD TWP 16 LAMBERTVILLE 10 LEBANON 10.5 RIEGELSVILLE 16.5 WHITE HOUSE STATION 11.8 ...MERCER COUNTY... HAMILTON SQUARE 4 HIGHTSTOWN 4.3 PRINCETON 2.9 WASHINGTON/S CROSSING 4.5 YARDVILLE 4 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... MILLTOWN 4 NEW BRUNSWICK 5 WOODBRIDGE TWP 4 ...MONMOUTH COUNTY... FREEHOLD 3.5 MANASQUAN 2 MIDDLETOWN 3.5 RED BANK 1.3 ...MORRIS COUNTY... BUTLER 16 KENVIL 16 LAKE HIAWATHA 14 LONG VALLEY 16 MADISON 11 MARCELLA 16 MILTON-OAKRIDGE 18 MORRIS PLAINS 7 PARSIPPANY 10 RANDOLPH TOWNSHIP 14 ROCKAWAY 14.5 SUCCASUNNA 14 WHIPPANY 9.5 ...OCEAN COUNTY... TOMS RIVER 1 WARETOWN 1.5 ...SOMERSET COUNTY... BASKING RIDGE 12 BLACKWELLS MILLS 5 BRANCHBURG 9 BRIDGEWATER 6.5 BRIDGEWATER 7 NESHANIC 7.5 POTTERSVILLE 9 RARITAN 7.8 SOMERVILLE 7 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... ANDOVER 16 BARRY LAKE 15.5 BRANCHVILLE 18 BYRAM TWP 16 FRANKLIN 18.5 GREEN TWP 16 HIGH POINT 18.5 HOPATCONG 12 LAFAYETTE 16 LAKE HOPATCONG 14 NEWTON 17 SPARTA 17 SPARTA II 15 STANHOPE 12 STILLWATER 19 STOCKHOLM 18 SUSSEX BORO 14 SUSSEX BORO II 12 VERNON 16 WANTAGE 17.5 ...WARREN COUNTY... BELVIDERE 20 BELVIDERE II 16.3 BLAIRSTOWN 16.5 BLAIRSTOWN II 15.5 HACKETTSTOWN 17.5 HOPE TWP 17.5 OXFORD 19 PHILLIPSBURG 13 STEWARTSVILLE 17.3 WASHINGTON BORO 18 ......DELAWARE...... ...NEW CASTLE COUNTY... BEAR 0.6 WILMINGTON 2.0 NEW CASTLE AIRPORT 0.5 THANKS TO ALL OUR SPOTTERS AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS FOR THESE REPORTS. TFG Good call, that's not a bad analog at all. Very astute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ray does the 33 inch buffkit for ttn make you shake violently? Jeez Tombo, 'bout time you showed up! Seriously, though, glad you're posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Me and Mike would be in heaven if those verify! I just wish I could be safe at home for this one. Due to log book hours of service, I'll most likely be stuck in New Jersey overnight Friday and have to drive in it Saturday. Oh well, the life of a truck driver I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 my location had 17" during that storm and this is less than 400 feet amsl. and not to play devil's advocate, but based on these i do not see a strict elevation difference...more of a north to south and east to west variation based on latitude and position of the low. all the higher elevations though are located north and west of the city. Remember having elev around this region could be considered 400 ft or greater. Also, your region is 60-70 miles away from the city where you dont need as much elevation. Look at portions of delco where the higher elev that reach 500 ft in the northern part got 12-15 while southern parts less than 150 ft got 3-5. you can pretty distinctly pick out the fall line on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 i know i see the difference. but some people indicate elevation makes the difference when greater than 800-1000 feet. anyway, this is a super rare early season storm, so yes, elevation will matter. it was a good analog and this will be fun few days. i think there is major bust disappointment for the folks along the coastal plain the nyc thread. and to edit, since ive lived in the lehigh valley, i have yet to see a big difference in living west of the coastal areas in terms of snowfall. usually it is the other way around, but this time could show the differences. all the higher elevations though are located north and west of the city. Remember having elev around this region could be considered 400 ft or greater. Also, your region is 60-70 miles away from the city where you dont need as much elevation. Look at portions of delco where the higher elev that reach 500 ft in the northern part got 12-15 while southern parts less than 150 ft got 3-5. you can pretty distinctly pick out the fall line on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 i know i see the difference. but some people indicate elevation makes the difference when greater than 800-1000 feet. anyway, this is a super rare early season storm, so yes, elevation will matter. it was a good analog and this will be fun few days. i think there is major bust disappointment for the folks along the coastal plain the nyc thread. and to edit, since ive lived in the lehigh valley, i have yet to see a big difference in living west of the coastal areas in terms of snowfall. usually it is the other way around, but this time could show the differences. You're in a better spot than say, Philly...but in philly having 300-400 feet would make all the difference between a couple of inches (or more) and slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i know i see the difference. but some people indicate elevation makes the difference when greater than 800-1000 feet. anyway, this is a super rare early season storm, so yes, elevation will matter. it was a good analog and this will be fun few days. i think there is major bust disappointment for the folks along the coastal plain the nyc thread. and to edit, since ive lived in the lehigh valley, i have yet to see a big difference in living west of the coastal areas in terms of snowfall. usually it is the other way around, but this time could show the differences. agreed, i can see the airport having a snow rain mix for the whole storm or changes over to a wet snow that never sticks..while 200 ft in elev gets 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is also another decent analog for this storm snow map wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jeez Tombo, 'bout time you showed up! Seriously, though, glad you're posting! thanks its good to be talking snow again after the summer. I usually don't get into snow mode till clocks fall back, but hey i will take the early dose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is also another decent analog for this storm snow map wise I thought about that storm earlier today, it started as light rain here then changed to a few hours of moderate wet snow. Seeing a repeat of that would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You're in a better spot than say, Philly...but in philly having 300-400 feet would make all the difference between a couple of inches (or more) and slush. Yep, It is extremely noticible around where I am. We have the Great Valley at 200 ft where I used to live. If you drive 3 minutes to the hill to our south everything is white with borderline storms, while the valley is all wet and slushy. And that's only a 200-300 feet difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can we dub this the HalloWEENIE storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Perhaps, but the storm structure with February 5, 2001 is actually also very similar to what is progged in Saturday's storm, while this one is quite different. this is also another decent analog for this storm snow map wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol @ title change. Me and Mike would be in heaven if those verify! This go around NW Jersey has a good shot too...or even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can we dub this the HalloWEENIE storm? I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfs buffkit numbers phl 0 rdg 0 ttn 1 abe 8.1 ilg 1.7 acy 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Unfortunately I will be down in Sea Isle City this weekend....putting a weather station on the roof of my place at the shore. I would imagine NW Chesco will have a little better shot at snow. Just ran the Wxsim but it is very unimpressed using the 18z data. Lots of mixing with 1 to 2 slushy inches. I would expect my location with a bit of elevation here may do pretty well. Will have to find a neighbor and compare what Iceman56 has in Glenmoore to here...Unless I can convince the wife to delay our trip till Sat night....(the life of a snow weenie!) Should be an interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z euro snowfall map peak amounts for hr 57 n 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For $hits and giggles: check out the amount of tree branches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z gfs accum snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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