SP Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just happen to be heading to the pocono cabin this weekend. or should i say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well the winter storm watches are here and I am really hoping that this does not cause a public panic in the Lehigh Valley. I still feel this will be more of a panic by the public than a two foot snowfall because many are unprepared- like nurseries still selling mums, snow plowing contracts that have not even been renewed, the public thinking snow will not be plowed on the local roads and of course the outa of bread and milk syndrome. Its one thing to gently arrive into it the snow removal season, its another to be speed into a snow bank. The biggest problem is that the leaves have not all fallen , they are piled on the side of the road for pickup and now they will be snow plows hitting and scattering those leaf piles. Some people are going to be angry but what the hell, its only snow and a potential historical snow event. I hope board members take pictures are videos and save them for their own archives. Lastly, power failures seem like a sure bet if the storm materializes. This will be a real test for PPL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well the winter storm watches are here and I am really hoping that this does not cause a public panic in the Lehigh Valley. I still feel this will be more of a panic by the public than a two foot snowfall because many are unprepared- like nurseries still selling mums, snow plowing contracts that have not even been renewed, the public thinking snow will not be plowed on the local roads and of course the outa of bread and milk syndrome. Its one thing to gently arrive into it the snow removal season, its another to be speed into a snow bank. The biggest problem is that the leaves have not all fallen , they are piled on the side of the road for pickup and now they will be snow plows hitting and scattering those leaf piles. Some people are going to be angry but what the hell, its only snow and a potential historical snow event. I hope board members take pictures are videos and save them for their own archives. Lastly, power failures seem like a sure bet if the storm materializes. This will be a real test for PPL We shall see. Most people I have talked did not yet know of the threat or were skeptical of what may come. I would agree though that this has the potential to bring down a lot of trees/power lines. Better gas up the ol' generator! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks like the EC might get it's way LV North/NE...WSWatches up for Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mt Holly Snow Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Much nicer map from Mt.Holly than Iremember last year...also LV N the heck you say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM looking GFSish at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Id the models are right then we may might want to move the map around 20 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good Lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Killer CCB hammering the region at 51. It's likely overdone given the NAM's bias, but this is pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOL! Gotta love it! Nam is showing it's usual overamplification at this range but a good sign nonetheless! If 00Z holds serve, I think we are in for some fun times. (Or a nice bust to start off the season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I may have a misunderstanding behind the logistics of how weather models work, but if the NAM has always shown over-amplification, then how come it is not tweaked to not show the over-amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I may have a misunderstanding behind the logistics of how weather models work, but if the NAM has always shown over-amplification, then how come it is not tweaked to not show the over-amplification? NAM focus is more mesoscale, not synoptic level storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM, GFS and even to some extent the EC are essentially on board for an unprecedented event. Once in a lifetime. Rarer than a 2 foot snowstorm, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM focus is more mesoscale, not synoptic level storms. Oh okay, got it now. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM, GFS and even to some extent the EC are essentially on board for an unprecedented event. Once in a lifetime. Rarer than a 2 foot snowstorm, perhaps. Well now that we are in a lull between model runs, can you recap the rarity of a "several" inch snowfall in October in the region for us, Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well now that we are in a lull between model runs, can you recap the rarity of a "several" inch snowfall in October in the region for us, Ray? We've had accumulating snow in/around Philadelphia three times since 1979 ('79, '02, and '08). It doesn't happen often...and '79 was the most "intense" with 1-3" of midday snow. This could set the monthly record at PHL if everything breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well now that we are in a lull between model runs, can you recap the rarity of a "several" inch snowfall in October in the region for us, Ray? Back to the 1870s, the biggest snowfall at PHL in October is less than 3 inches. Same goes for Trenton. Records for Allentown only go back to the 1920s, but that far back, the same thing holds true. Biggest snowfall in Wilmington in October back to the 1890s is 3 inches. There's never been accumulating snow in Atlantic City in October back to the 1870s (though they may not be in the game in this storm). I think KU has a few October snowfalls listed and locally there may have been higher totals in the Del Valley, but I don't have KU in front of me at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well now that we are in a lull between model runs, can you recap the rarity of a "several" inch snowfall in October in the region for us, Ray? 1816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thats the last time I don't check this site for a couple of days...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NAM, GFS and even to some extent the EC are essentially on board for an unprecedented event. Once in a lifetime. Rarer than a 2 foot snowstorm, perhaps. Hard to agrue against the Old Nam/ EC Rule that DT used to expouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sup bro-skis just started turning to snow. 34.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking forward to heading home tomorrow, from what I hear probably several inches of snow in the Lehigh Valley. Never thought I'd be saying this in October but I'm not complaining...I'll make sure to send some pics this way come Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That NAM is just gosh darn REDONKULOUS! insane CCB... BL temps not an issue on that run. Not buying those insane amounts, but thermal profiles look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Much nicer map from Mt.Holly than Iremember last year...also LV N the heck you say... Thanks! The change was based on some customer/staff feedback. Looks like we may have to tweak the contouring some though as some of it looks rather close together. Better than the pinpoint numbers like before though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT has 2.17" of liquid from the storm. The surface (at KPNE) hits 0C at 19z, and remarkably, it stays at 0C all the way until 02z. During that period 1.41" of liquid, all all of which is theoretically snow. As expected, the bl warms again after 03z as the precip rate drops off. All I can say is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 sup bro-skis just started turning to snow. 34.9 Remember, snow pics with the grill included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT has 2.17" of liquid from the storm. The surface (at KPNE) hits 0C at 19z, and remarkably, it stays at 0C all the way until 02z. During that period 1.41" of liquid, all all of which is theoretically snow. As expected, the bl warms again after 03z as the precip rate drops off. All I can say is wow. That would be one hell of a thumping of wet snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Remember, snow pics with the grill included. almost couldn't get it because of its wettish texture.... switched Shutter Speed and walla - down to 33 now.. (called in to mount holly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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