phlwx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Models have been sniffing on this storm for several days in various forms and a couple of the extendo runs from the GFS had this off the coast and bringing us snow. Right now, everyone in this area gets rain on the GFS' scenario. The 0z Euro, for s**ts and giggles, has a storm offshore about 150 miles and us sub 0 at 850...keep in mind it's late October but we've had snow in the burbs in Oct 08 when the 500 pinched off right overhead. This isn't the same scenario (merely mid level trough, no 500 mb cutoff). If the Euro played out, mike2010 and the Pocono folks could have a shot at some frozen but I think the rest of us would be cold rain. However, this *could* be the storm that ushers in a cold enough shot to get a first frost for those in the region who avoid one this weekend (that's most everyone south of I-78). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It will only snow in the Poconos if Mike has his grill strategically placed on his deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 It will only snow in the Poconos if Mike has his grill strategically placed on his deck. Agree completely. Make sure you have a WWA ready to go for elevations at or above 2010 feet if he's got his grill lined up and the grill cam ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Keep in mind that the Euro solution is completely dependent on tropical interaction again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Wow, interesting looking setup next week. At this point, something to watch....especially for our friends to the west. A place like State College has gotten hit hard a few times the past 10 years in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 snow would just be limited to the pocs, the lehigh valley higher elevations and maybe down to the valley itself may mix in as the storm pulls away. Thicknesses imho are to high to support any snow anywhere else outside those areas, you need 534 or below for october, which the euro isnt showing. combine that with very marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Wow, interesting looking setup next week. At this point, something to watch....especially for our friends to the west. A place like State College has gotten hit hard a few times the past 10 years in October. Henry M probably already posted a snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm hoping we see that 500mb setup often this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 1319213803[/url]' post='1048632']Henry M probably already posted a snow map 6-12 for some parts of pa on that map? (just guessing...I have no idea what he would predict) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks like something to watch here in Hazleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Well, we sure arent strangers to October snows up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 ^might need a better 500 look but it's not bad for late October. If it's heavy enough it might do the trick in the hills north/west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 ^might need a better 500 look but it's not bad for late October. If it's heavy enough it might do the trick in the hills north/west of 95. lolz: Column cooling FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 What happened to Autumn?!?! We went straight from August to possible winter in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 What happened to Autumn?!?! We went straight from August to possible winter in a couple of weeks. Sleet wanted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 What happened to Autumn?!?! We went straight from August to possible winter in a couple of weeks. Same happened to end of winter/start of summer! Where'd spring go?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 and then there's this look: If any set up was gonna do this for october, it would be a fresh cold front with a wave developing and riding the boundry and deepening rapidly with the airmass still fresh. While i do think the frozen precip along the coastal plain is unlikely attm, its still has a chance. Lots at play. Pretty amplified MJO wave traversing the glove right now, which makes this coastal storm (purely synoptic, and not thermo's) have some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 0.77 inches of SLEET! That graph is a major tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 0.77 inches of SLEET! That graph is a major tease. There should be a warning on it saying " FOR PURPOSES ONLY" .lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 lolz: Column cooling FTW Aw...that will end up as 0.7" of rain by Friday (or more)...at least in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 and then there's this look: you shouldn't hotlink those images...the 0z GFS drops 2" of rain. Sleet cancel. With that said, 0z Euro does pop Central and Western PA with a decent snowstorm -- pretty much elevations west of I-81, with rain for us. Low track generally over Philly. GFS about 50 miles southeast and about 12-15 hours slower with storm than EC at this point (still rain for city). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 you shouldn't hotlink those images...the 0z GFS drops 2" of rain. Sleet cancel. With that said, 0z Euro does pop Central and Western PA with a decent snowstorm -- pretty much elevations west of I-81, with rain for us. Low track generally over Philly. GFS about 50 miles southeast and about 12-15 hours slower with storm than EC at this point (still rain for city). Whoops about the hotlink! Seems like the general theme of the 0z suite was to slow down the storm , so that by the time it arrived along the " cold" airmass ushered in behind the fropa, it has already modified, hence the rain. That, and the track clOser to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Whoops about the hotlink! Seems like the general theme of the 0z suite was to slow down the storm , so that by the time it arrived along the " cold" airmass ushered in behind the fropa, it has already modified, hence the rain. That, and the track clOser to the coast. The EC was generally faster with the storm..the storm pretty much was out by 12z Saturday whereas the GFS had us in the midst of the storm at that point. GFS is also a warmer solution on the whole (not as much cold to the north regardless of timing as the 0 line is clearly farther north) -- a bit less amplified. FWIW, will be interesting how the mountains do on this...could be a pretty healthy drop of snow for the mountains to our west if the EC verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 The EC was generally faster with the storm..the storm pretty much was out by 12z Saturday whereas the GFS had us in the midst of the storm at that point. GFS is also a warmer solution on the whole (not as much cold to the north regardless of timing as the 0 line is clearly farther north) -- a bit less amplified. FWIW, will be interesting how the mountains do on this...could be a pretty healthy drop of snow for the mountains to our west if the EC verifies. Yeah, I'm not buying into the ABE snow. For a couple days now, this has looked like the typical storm you need to bring good snows to the northern and mountainous tier of PA. I could see six inches in the NC PA mountains, and several inches in the highest portions of NE PA above 2015 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Yeah, I'm not buying into the ABE snow. For a couple days now, this has looked like the typical storm you need to bring good snows to the northern and mountainous tier of PA. I could see six inches in the NC PA mountains, and several inches in the highest portions of NE PA above 2015 feet! You're not into that one GFS plume member that keeps on giving ABE about a foot of snow water equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 You're not into that one GFS plume member that keeps on giving ABE about a foot of snow water equivalent? truth be told, if I still lived there, that would be the most accurate GFS member of the group. However, someone stole my snowy colored glasses, and now all I see is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 What no snow now? Winter is a bust already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 What no snow now? Winter is a bust already! You know what they say no snow in October, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 truth be told, if I still lived there, that would be the most accurate GFS member of the group. However, someone stole my snowy colored glasses, and now all I see is rain. My bad, I thought you were back and forthing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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