2011-12 Winter Prediction/Preview Thread

[QVectorman]

The trough shifted east with time and allowed more Arctic air to plunge into the central US and gin-up some nice storms for the central/east. It makes sense that the sharper temperature conflict & created baroclinic zone with the still mild Gulf would do its part in storm creation especially over the MidWest & Lakes east across the Ohio Valley/East coast. I found the stormy times trended 1) mid-late season and 2) early & late. I can either scenario for the Lakes. The cold blasts could be too strong and shift a charged-up storm track just south/east of SE MIch early in the season OR we are in the "zone" ;-) That's probably why my snow patterns reflected both scenarios with mid-late the strongest.

However, and I stated in WO, the snow amounts were all over the board and those two subtle trends (1 & 2 ) showed up. This is gonna be a tuff winter to forecast mainly because of the strong northern Pacific jet (acting more like a "northern El Nino" - so to speak with the fast zonal flow). We need that Ridge development and then WHERE?

-Bill

Bill it is great to see you getting involved in the discussion here. Your knowledge is invaluable and to add another great long range forecaster to board, IMO will help really produce some good reading in the future. Plus, I always love to hear more thinking beyond your blog.

Also, I don't know if you are aware of this site or if it is of any help to you, someone pointed it out on here a few months ago for showing percentage of snowfall for each season.

http://gis.ncdc.noaa....map?view=resis

And reading your outlooks for the past 10 years or so I know your are keen on snowfall distribution over the Great Lakes. Here is a map of the 50-51 season that I have generated from the page for my own long range forecast (also one of your analogs) I also noticed it matched up nicely with your thoughts you discussed about the snowfall distribution possible for this winter across the G.Lakes with heavier snow though the OH Valley.

I personally think this site is a great step in the next direction but I would love to see the ability to generate multiple year composites of percentage of snowfall and produce contoured intervals rather than the just the colored dots...do you have any pull in that?

[Justin]

The pattern has been great overall for the upcoming Winter, but the fact the cold is just basically sitting in Alaska and far NW Canada is a bit concerning. Also to the previous poster that pointed out the fast Pacific Jet just South of that cold pool is acting like a North based Nino is concerning as well. If we don't start seeing some re-positioning of that Alaska Vortex in the next few weeks I have a feeling a lot of Winter predicitions are going to bust and badly.

We've seen some snow already across much of the Midwest and a system will be going thru the Dakota's and MN in the next 24+ hours, but the real lack of a good cold draw for these systems is just scary. All the circulations and global patterns that were predicted are there but if not lined up in the right spots it will just throw everything off big time.

As such I think a scenario that is becoming likely is a pattern that see's some good temperature swings in much of the Midwest/Lakes/Ohio Valley for the Winter, and as such some of the storms will have snow and some will have rain. Snowpack may not persist in these areas for any lengthy stretches...and snowfall may come in at or below normal in many places. I'm just not feeling the calls for another big/good Winter in much of the middle of the country. Likely spots to see below normal temps more consistently...my pick would be interior New England and perhaps the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies-Northern Plains. Above Normal Precip...most likely I think again the Pacific NW to the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic as well. Southwest U.S. thru Texas likely to stay dry I think, although I think Oklahoma and Arkansas may be wetter than they have been.

[dmc76]

The pattern has been great overall for the upcoming Winter, but the fact the cold is just basically sitting in Alaska and far NW Canada is a bit concerning. Also to the previous poster that pointed out the fast Pacific Jet just South of that cold pool is acting like a North based Nino is concerning as well. If we don't start seeing some re-positioning of that Alaska Vortex in the next few weeks I have a feeling a lot of Winter predicitions are going to bust and badly.

We've seen some snow already across much of the Midwest and a system will be going thru the Dakota's and MN in the next 24+ hours, but the real lack of a good cold draw for these systems is just scary. All the circulations and global patterns that were predicted are there but if not lined up in the right spots it will just throw everything off big time.

As such I think a scenario that is becoming likely is a pattern that see's some good temperature swings in much of the Midwest/Lakes/Ohio Valley for the Winter, and as such some of the storms will have snow and some will have rain. Snowpack may not persist in these areas for any lengthy stretches...and snowfall may come in at or below normal in many places. I'm just not feeling the calls for another big/good Winter in much of the middle of the country. Likely spots to see below normal temps more consistently...my pick would be interior New England and perhaps the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies-Northern Plains. Above Normal Precip...most likely I think again the Pacific NW to the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic as well. Southwest U.S. thru Texas likely to stay dry I think, although I think Oklahoma and Arkansas may be wetter than they have been.

[Baum]

The pattern has been great overall for the upcoming Winter, but the fact the cold is just basically sitting in Alaska and far NW Canada is a bit concerning. Also to the previous poster that pointed out the fast Pacific Jet just South of that cold pool is acting like a North based Nino is concerning as well. If we don't start seeing some re-positioning of that Alaska Vortex in the next few weeks I have a feeling a lot of Winter predicitions are going to bust and badly.

We've seen some snow already across much of the Midwest and a system will be going thru the Dakota's and MN in the next 24+ hours, but the real lack of a good cold draw for these systems is just scary. All the circulations and global patterns that were predicted are there but if not lined up in the right spots it will just throw everything off big time.

As such I think a scenario that is becoming likely is a pattern that see's some good temperature swings in much of the Midwest/Lakes/Ohio Valley for the Winter, and as such some of the storms will have snow and some will have rain. Snowpack may not persist in these areas for any lengthy stretches...and snowfall may come in at or below normal in many places. I'm just not feeling the calls for another big/good Winter in much of the middle of the country. Likely spots to see below normal temps more consistently...my pick would be interior New England and perhaps the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies-Northern Plains. Above Normal Precip...most likely I think again the Pacific NW to the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic as well. Southwest U.S. thru Texas likely to stay dry I think, although I think Oklahoma and Arkansas may be wetter than they have been.

As always appreciate your thoughts,Justin. Although we know they will not necessarily be popular . It will be interesting to see how the next two weeks play out as many in favor of a strong midwest winter are hinting at a pattern change. And of course this would be consistent with what has occurred in the previous four winters. Should we not get that dramatic change by early December it will be interesting to see how the rest of it plays out. Thanks, again.

[Justin]

As always appreciate your thoughts,Justin. Although we know they will not necessarily be popular . It will be interesting to see how the next two weeks play out as many in favor of a strong midwest winter are hinting at a pattern change. And of course this would be consistent with what has occurred in the previous four winters. Should we not get that dramatic change by early December it will be interesting to see how the rest of it plays out. Thanks, again.

I know Baum, sucks to not be the popular guy on the block. If the pattern change does occur it will be interesting to see how long it holds. If it just locks in for a few days and we flip back to how things are now, I think its a sign we'll see a progressive/fast flow much of the Winter which favors more mild temps than the last few Winters. I hope to the heavens my gut feeling is wrong, but after a pattern change does occur it will be telling to see what happens. I'm certainly not ready to start planting palm trees and keep my Bermuda shorts on standby, just won't be as epic of a Winter compared to the last few.

[wxhstn74]

Bill it is great to see you getting involved in the discussion here. Your knowledge is invaluable and to add another great long range forecaster to board, IMO will help really produce some good reading in the future. Plus, I always love to hear more thinking beyond your blog.

Also, I don't know if you are aware of this site or if it is of any help to you, someone pointed it out on here a few months ago for showing percentage of snowfall for each season.

http://gis.ncdc.noaa....map?view=resis

And reading your outlooks for the past 10 years or so I know your are keen on snowfall distribution over the Great Lakes. Here is a map of the 50-51 season that I have generated from the page for my own long range forecast (also one of your analogs) I also noticed it matched up nicely with your thoughts you discussed about the snowfall distribution possible for this winter across the G.Lakes with heavier snow though the OH Valley.

I personally think this site is a great step in the next direction but I would love to see the ability to generate multiple year composites of percentage of snowfall and produce contoured intervals rather than the just the colored dots...do you have any pull in that?

Hey, thanks for your kind words. I know of a guy that was working on the GIS program at DTX for a couple of years before I retired. I know that was a problem (generated contours since the data was sparse and had to rely on neighboring offices to merge data, a problem). That particular product that you showed me comes from our climate center (as I'm sure you know). I wasn't aware they had compiled monthly/season snowfalls...that's great and thanks Tell me about yourself. You say you've been reading my outlooks for about 10 years, I take it you are a Met? Where are you located? I checked your profile and nothing (like mine I'm afraid). Fill me in a little.

Tks Bill

ps: no I don't have any pull with the GIS program but I know who I could ask about it. You name alone "QVectorman" brings up past chills LOL

[QVectorman]

Hey, thanks for your kind words. I know of a guy that was working on the GIS program at DTX for a couple of years before I retired. I know that was a problem (generated contours since the data was sparse and had to rely on neighboring offices to merge data, a problem). That particular product that you showed me comes from our climate center (as I'm sure you know). I wasn't aware they had compiled monthly/season snowfalls...that's great and thanks Tell me about yourself. You say you've been reading my outlooks for about 10 years, I take it you are a Met? Where are you located? I checked your profile and nothing (like mine I'm afraid). Fill me in a little.

Tks Bill

ps: no I don't have any pull with the GIS program but I know who I could ask about it. You name alone "QVectorman" brings up past chills LOL

Bill check your PM's....brrrr QVector, haha

[Guru Of Reason]

Here is nice winter forecast at the bottom of this page.

http://fox2ch.websitetoolbox.com/post/Chriss-Corner-Week-of-November-14-2011-5577780?trail=150

[Chicago WX]

First off, I do not consider myself proficient at doing long range forecasting. Still, I like to venture a guess just for giggles. Which leads me to my 2011-12 winter guess for LAF. I guess my methodology is sorta complex, as I'm trying to factor in short/medium range tendencies with respect to ENSO, NAO, AO, PDO, etc etc...as well as using analog years or years that are similar to 2011. Really I'm in over my head, but here's what I came up with anyway. Warm/wet to start, cold/drier conditions for the last 2/3 of winter for LAF.

Temperature/precipitation departures based off the 1981-10 normals.

December 2011

Average temp: 33.5º (+3.0º)

Precipitation: 4.50" (+1.99")

Snowfall: 5.0"

January 2012

Average temperature: 23.0º (-3.5º)

Precipitation: 1.30" (-0.56")

Snowfall: 6.0"

February 2012

Average temperature: 27.5º (-3.0º)

Precipitation: 1.65" (-0.11")

Snowfall: 8.0"

Winter (DJF) 2011-12

Average temperature: 28.0º (-1.1º)

Precipitation: 7.45" (+1.32")

Snowfall: 19.0"

2011-12 total season snowfall: 24.0"

Miscellaneous stats

Number of 0.1"+ snowfalls: 17

Number of 6.0"+ snowfalls: 0

Timeframe for the biggest snowstorm: late February/early March

Number of below zero min temps: 8

Number of 50º+ max temps: 11

Chance that I'm completely wrong: 100%

Looks like I got the idea of a warm December right for LAF, but won't be warm enough in the end. My call for precipitation and snowfall were both too aggressive. C- grade at best. But time to revise the rest of the forecast...

With the current pattern looking to be unchanged through at least mid January (+AO, +NAO, +EPO), I'll have to do a complete 180 and go with 31.5º (+4.5º) for January temps. And with the idea that winter may arrive by February...no lock based off past data that shows a persistent/strong +AO, +NAO, +EPO, etc...I'll put Feb at near normal with 31.0º (+0.5º). I'll ride the same precipitation calls for both months, but slash snowfall to 3" for Jan and 5" for Feb. I still like March having the biggest snow event here...but with all that being said, my season snowfall of 24" will not be close. 15" total sounds about right. Of course do overs are lame, but I had to try to save some face.

Flame away.

[A-L-E-K]

this could get ugly

[KokomoWX]

Flame away.

[Chicago WX]

lol ^^^

[dmc76]

Here is nice winter forecast at the bottom of this page.

http://fox2ch.websit...77780?trail=150

Major Fail!

[Chicago WX]

this could get ugly

I expect you to jump on the least snowiest winter on record brigade soon. Your number for Chicago is 9.8" (set in 1920-21).

[A-L-E-K]

I expect you to jump on the least snowiest winter on record brigade soon. Your number for Chicago is 9.8" (set in 1920-21).

lol, I've had it took good with snow and severe to complain about a bad couple of months, I mean this pattern really sucks and appears locked in but there's still a lot of time and 9.8" is a real small number. If we're under 5" by the end of January we might make a run.

[Chicago WX]

lol, I've had it took good with snow and severe to complain about a bad couple of months, I mean this pattern really sucks and appears locked in but there's still a lot of time and 9.8" is a real small number. If we're under 5" by the end of January we might make a run.

No doubt, it's been good recently...no reason to complain too much. It was a rather lame attempt by me at baiting you ...but yes 9.8" is almost an unimaginably small number. This pattern's persistence is something though, thus I had to ride it until further notice. Eh, win some, lose some.

[A-L-E-K]

No doubt, it's been good recently...no reason to complain too much. It was a rather lame attempt by me at baiting you ...but yes 9.8" is almost an unimaginably small number. This pattern's persistence is something though, thus I had to ride it until further notice. Eh, win some, lose some.

2011 will go down as my best year of weather no matter what, so hard to sink this ship.

Re: the crap pattern...i think my major concern is that it just seems so stable, after all, records are made to be broken.

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like I got the idea of a warm December right for LAF, but won't be warm enough in the end. My call for precipitation and snowfall were both too aggressive. C- grade at best. But time to revise the rest of the forecast...

With the current pattern looking to be unchanged through at least mid January (+AO, +NAO, +EPO), I'll have to do a complete 180 and go with 31.5º (+4.5º) for January temps. And with the idea that winter may arrive by February...no lock based off past data that shows a persistent/strong +AO, +NAO, +EPO, etc...I'll put Feb at near normal with 31.0º (+0.5º). I'll ride the same precipitation calls for both months, but slash snowfall to 3" for Jan and 5" for Feb. I still like March having the biggest snow event here...but with all that being said, my season snowfall of 24" will not be close. 15" total sounds about right. Of course do overs are lame, but I had to try to save some face.

Flame away.

Wow thats a huge change. You were the only one (to my knowlege) other than Bill Deedler who forecast a mild December, and you got it right. Bill also forecast a heavy backloaded winter with most snow the 2nd half of winter, and has a good track record. So hopefully you will be sorry you changed

[Chicago WX]

2011 will go down as my best year of weather no matter what, so hard to sink this ship.

Re: the crap pattern...i think my major concern is that it just seems so stable, after all, records are made to be broken.

Well the records for Chicago are pretty much in the stratosphere. 37.2º (1877-78) for DJF and 9.8" (1920-21) for season snowfall. Some of the recent disaster winters with respect to temperatures aren't even close to that number...33.3º in 1997-98, 32.5º in 2001-02, 30.4º in 1998-99. But I'm putting the cart way before the horse.

[dmc76]

Guy I work with told me in October that would have a Mild December says winter wont come till January. Hes theory was there was to much rain this year and late start to the summer.

[Chicago WX]

Wow thats a huge change. You were the only one (to my knowlege) other than Bill Deedler who forecast a mild December, and you got it right. Bill also forecast a heavy backloaded winter with most snow the 2nd half of winter, and has a good track record. So hopefully you will be sorry you changed

I hope I fail miserably. I feel confident on January at this point, I mean going +4.5º is fairly aggressive...though February through March will tell the tale. Keep i mind this is for MBY, and as we know the weather can differ considerably in the region. North of here would certainly look to benefit with winter chances in maybe late Jan, and then Feb and Mar. I think Mr. Deedler probably has the right ideas.

[Hoosier]

Looks like I got the idea of a warm December right for LAF, but won't be warm enough in the end. My call for precipitation and snowfall were both too aggressive. C- grade at best. But time to revise the rest of the forecast...

With the current pattern looking to be unchanged through at least mid January (+AO, +NAO, +EPO), I'll have to do a complete 180 and go with 31.5º (+4.5º) for January temps. And with the idea that winter may arrive by February...no lock based off past data that shows a persistent/strong +AO, +NAO, +EPO, etc...I'll put Feb at near normal with 31.0º (+0.5º). I'll ride the same precipitation calls for both months, but slash snowfall to 3" for Jan and 5" for Feb. I still like March having the biggest snow event here...but with all that being said, my season snowfall of 24" will not be close. 15" total sounds about right. Of course do overs are lame, but I had to try to save some face.

Flame away.

Pretty bold to reduce to 15" when we haven't really fallen off pace (yet). Of course bold sometimes pays off.

[Chicago WX]

Pretty bold to reduce to 15" when we haven't really fallen off pace (yet). Of course bold sometimes pays off.

I see nothing that indicates any real snowfall threats for LAF for the next 2-3 weeks. The pattern actually looks worse, if there is such a thing...climo be damned. Granted flukes happen (see this November)...but I'm taking a chance that the suckage continues unabated through January. I hope I bust...but go big or go home.

[Hoosier]

I see nothing that indicates any real snowfall threats for LAF for the next 2-3 weeks. The pattern actually looks worse, if there is such a thing...climo be damned. Granted flukes happen (see this November)...but I'm taking a chance that the suckage continues unabated through January. I hope I bust...but go big or go home.

I guess I'm trying to remain somewhat optimistic given our total in a horrible pattern. But on the flip side, whenever the pattern flips to something more favorable there is no guarantee that we cash in...there are always "screw zones" at least in a relative sense.

[Chicago WX]

I guess I'm trying to remain somewhat optimistic given our total in a horrible pattern. But on the flip side, whenever the pattern flips to something more favorable there is no guarantee that we cash in...there are always "screw zones" at least in a relative sense.

Snowfall remains the unclear variable, as you can get it even in terrible patterns...and get shut out when it is cold enough. But I base my ideas off past history for LAF too. More times than not, overall warm regimes are pretty bad for this area...but you know that. We'll see. I did think about going lower than 15", but don't want to be labeled as a troll.

[Hoosier]

Snowfall remains the unclear variable, as you can get it even in terrible patterns...and get shut out when it is cold enough. But I base my ideas off past history for LAF too. More times than not, overall warm regimes are pretty bad for this area...but you know that. We'll see. I did think about going lower than 15", but don't want to be labeled as a troll.

When was our last sub 15" season? I remember 03-04 being pretty bad.

[Chicago WX]

When was our last sub 15" season? I remember 03-04 being pretty bad.

1997-98 with 9.8".

2001-02 (18.0"), 2003-04 (16.5"), and 2005-06 (17.4") were nothing to write home about it either.

[Hoosier]

Here it is.  Years I took into consideration:

1950-1951

1956-1957

1962-1963

1967-1968

1971-1972

1974-1975

1995-1996

2000-2001

2008-2009

2010-2011

Many of these years are on here for little reason other than being Ninas but I didn't want to be stuck with only a couple years.  I generally chose 2nd year Ninas but a couple exceptions were made to include non-2nd year Ninas either because of the intrayear Nina progression being similar (imo) or something else being similar like summer temps, etc.  Of the above years, I probably like 2008-2009 the best.  2nd year Ninas have not been very kind to LAF, especially in terms of snow, with many years featuring below average snow and some that were downright awful.  A few were ok.

  

Forecast for LAF against 1981-2010 airport normals

Temps (DJF):  below average, -2 to -4

Precip (DJF): near average to somewhat below average, -1 to +0.5

Snow (entire season):  near average, 25-30"

This is gonna need a major revision, particularly temps.  Although I didn't do monthly outlooks, I had an idea in mind for December and that was a modestly above average month.  In reality we are closing in on +6F with a few days to go.  I think the warmth won't win as handily as we turn the page to 2012 (first week courtesy of a rising PNA) but I don't see the sustained change we're all looking for yet.  I expect January to be cooler than December relative to average but a below average month is not yet assured.  There are some signs that we may flip to a more sustained wintry pattern around mid-month and hopefully that can take us into February.Anyway, I'm raising my DJF temp call to +2 to +3.  I'll leave precip and snowfall unchanged.

[Chicago WX]

This is gonna need a major revision, particularly temps.  Although I didn't do monthly outlooks, I had an idea in mind for December and that was a modestly above average month.  In reality we are closing in on +6F with a few days to go.  I think the warmth won't win as handily as we turn the page to 2012 (first week courtesy of a rising PNA) but I don't see the sustained change we're all looking for yet.  I expect January to be cooler than December relative to average but a below average month is not yet assured.  There are some signs that we may flip to a more sustained wintry pattern around mid-month and hopefully that can take us into February.Anyway, I'm raising my DJF temp call to +2 to +3.  I'll leave precip and snowfall unchanged.

Looks good. Even if January and February are overall average, the damage (+ December) has been done.