Is the planet warming?- truly independent study a resounding YES

[tacoman25]

Indeed, but this just shows that the underlying warming trend is unchanged. And it also supports my contention that the PDO doesn't have any cumulative effect it is just a period of high frequency La Ninas the effects of which can be removed by applying the normal linear ONI-temp relationship.

Sure. But that means if a period of high frequency Ninas (-PDO phase) can temporarily slow down global warming, a period of high frequency El Ninos can also temporarily accelerate it (+PDO). Which is a big part of the reason why the 1970-2000 period had such rapid warming compared to 1940-70.

[tacoman25]

Perhaps globally, but not in the PDO region which is what I was referring to. The PDO region as a whole is warmer in a -PDO.

Oh, right. From the discussion, I thought overall SST were being talked about.

[skierinvermont]

Sure. But that means if a period of high frequency Ninas (-PDO phase) can temporarily slow down global warming, a period of high frequency El Ninos can also temporarily accelerate it (+PDO). Which is a big part of the reason why the 1970-2000 period had such rapid warming compared to 1940-70.

You mean a small part. Though I guess it depends how you define 'big.'

[gracetoyou]

It has the potential to trend up because the AMO is only linearly de-trended Atlantic SSTs and the warming has the potential to be somewhat exponential. If you linearly detrend an exponential function it will look like a U.

My guess is that global temps have started to accelerate upwards and that this is just beginning to effect the AMO calculation.

You say the globe is warming, WeatherRusty says that temps are cooling. Which is right? According to the site weatherRusty posted he is. What do you say in response to that data that shows we're cooling?

[skierinvermont]

You say the globe is warming, WeatherRusty says that temps are cooling. Which is right? According to the site weatherRusty posted he is. What do you say in response to that data that shows we're cooling?

Rusty did not say we are presently cooling. He said that overall for the last 5000 years the earth was cooling. Look at the scale on the graph and notice the 2004 temperature labeled.

Everybody knows the earth has been warming the last decade (and over the last century of course). It's amazing to me some people who post here still haven't figured that out.

[WeatherRusty]

You say the globe is warming, WeatherRusty says that temps are cooling. Which is right? According to the site weatherRusty posted he is. What do you say in response to that data that shows we're cooling?

Let me jump in here. I showed you that the globe is currently cooling....which it is. However, at this time of year when the northern hemisphere is heading toward winter, the Earth as a whole always cools because most of the world's land mass is in the northern hemisphere. The land surface cools much more quickly than the southern oceans can warm, so the planet tends to cool at this time of year.

The real point is that you must define a time period for any warming or cooling. Long term the globe is warming...although on shorter scales it can cool for a while.

[WeatherRusty]

Rusty did not say we are presently cooling. He said that overall for the last 5000 years the earth was cooling. Look at the scale on the graph and notice the 2004 temperature labeled.

Everybody knows the earth has been warming the last decade (and over the last century of course). It's amazing to me some people who post here still haven't figured that out.

He's going back a couple of days in the discussion.

[LakeEffectKing]

Let me jump in here. I showed you that the globe is currently cooling....which it is. However, at this time of year when the northern hemisphere is heading toward winter, the Earth as a whole always cools because most of the world's land mass is in the northern hemisphere. The land surface cools much more quickly than the southern oceans can warm, so the planet tends to cool at this time of year.

The real point is that you must define a time period for any warming or cooling. Long term the globe is warming...although on shorter scales it can cool for a while.

Since we must "define" a time period, could you please "define" long term and short term?

[WeatherRusty]

Since we must "define" a time period, could you please "define" long term and short term?

That easy!

Long term is the entire instrumental record going back to 1880 and earlier. That's the long term warming trend.

Shorter term....let's see....the diurnal cycle, the annual cycle, ~1 year ENSO, 11 year solar cycle, two or three decade PDO, AMO etc.

[LakeEffectKing]

That easy!

Long term is the entire instrumental record going back to 1880 and earlier. That's the long term warming trend.

Shorter term....let's see....the diurnal cycle, the annual cycle, ~1 year ENSO, 11 year solar cycle, two or three decade PDO, AMO etc.

I just hear those terms thrown around way too often to define whatever fits the argument....I have heard long term being defined as short as 30 years before...so it's good to have a definition to go by at least.

[tacoman25]

You mean a small part. Though I guess it depends how you define 'big.'

No, I don't mean a small part. It's clear that over decadal periods, the PDO phase can signficantly alter the temperature trends. Some of the very papers you linked to backed this up. It's no coincidence that the warming trend has significantly slowed over the past decade as the PDO/ENSO tendency has gone negative. As long as there are signficantly more Ninas than Ninos, any underlying warming will be significantly slowed. If Pinatubo hadn't happened, the 1970s to 1990s would have shown more warming, and made the +PDO effect even more distinct vs. what we are seeing now.

[The_Global_Warmer]

In the end most of this is just distraction from the the warming.

As long as the ice declines and the hugs increase the earth will continue to warm faster or slower pending on the earths internal cycles.'

We could see 30 year period like this.

2011-2015: -.02

2016-2020: +.04

2021-2025: +.09

2026-2030: +.18

2031-2035: +.05

2036-2040: +.08

Overall .42C

Lets talk about the Real life factors affecting the system that can make a difference.

Is the new ozone holes that are stronger letting more OLR out?

How much OLR is being trapped under the surface cold inversions in the arctic causing how much of that to contribute to OHC.

How much will this summers solar insolation affect the system from the arctic.

How much affect is the massive snow cover deficit in may and June causing? That is a lot of albedo lost.

Just a few ideas.

Please add to them

[skierinvermont]

In the end most of this is just distraction from the the warming.

As long as the ice declines and the hugs increase the earth will continue to warm faster or slower pending on the earths internal cycles.'

We could see 30 year period like this.

2011-2015: -.02

2016-2020: +.04

2021-2025: +.09

2026-2030: +.18

2031-2035: +.05

2036-2040: +.08

Overall .42C

Lets talk about the Real life factors affecting the system that can make a difference.

Is the new ozone holes that are stronger letting more OLR out?

How much OLR is being trapped under the surface cold inversions in the arctic causing how much of that to contribute to OHC.

How much will this summers solar insolation affect the system from the arctic.

How much affect is the massive snow cover deficit in may and June causing? That is a lot of albedo lost.

Just a few ideas.

Please add to them

by hugs im guessing you meant ghgs?

1. ozone holes... stratospheric ozone depletion was estimate to have produced a RF of .05W/m2 from 1979 to 1998. stratospheric ozone has actually been recovering since 1992 which would have a +RF value.

2. not sure what you mean by these surface cold inversions or why this would affect OLR

3. I think we calculated this before.. the effect is fairly small and doesn't appear to be included in the IPCC report as far as I can tell

4. similar to 3?

[gracetoyou]

Rusty did not say we are presently cooling. He said that overall for the last 5000 years the earth was cooling. Look at the scale on the graph and notice the 2004 temperature labeled.

Everybody knows the earth has been warming the last decade (and over the last century of course). It's amazing to me some people who post here still haven't figured that out.

Rusty did say that & the data supports what he said.

[gracetoyou]

Rusty did not say we are presently cooling. He said that overall for the last 5000 years the earth was cooling. Look at the scale on the graph and notice the 2004 temperature labeled.

Everybody knows the earth has been warming the last decade (and over the last century of course). It's amazing to me some people who post here still haven't figured that out.

Either this data is faulty or you just wrong. I'm not saying which one. Seriously! I checked ever layer of the atmosphere that's available at that site & if it's accurate it does not show that we're warming at least over the last 9 years. Either the data is tainted, misleading or it's correct. I'm asking an honest question.

[gracetoyou]

Again, here's the SST's since 2002. Right now it's the coolest over that entire period. Seriously, you seem much more in the "know" than me (no joking at all), but is that data accurate? If it is then a lot of what I've been reading in this thread about SST's is hogwash? Again, this is an honest question.

Daily global average temperature at: Sea Surface

[skierinvermont]

Rusty did say that & the data supports what he said.

Rusty said it has been cooling for 2 months because the earth always cools in winter. Have you no concept of time period or context or are you just trolling?

[skierinvermont]

Either this data is faulty or you just wrong. I'm not saying which one. Seriously! I checked ever layer of the atmosphere that's available at that site & if it's accurate it does not show that we're warming at least over the last 9 years. Either the data is tainted, misleading or it's correct. I'm asking an honest question.

Trends are not calculated by looking at start and end points. They are calculated using linear regression. Just because a few data points at the end of the period are cold doesn't mean the decadal trend is cooling. The trend since 1998 is .12C/decade.

Also the SST graph is a month out of date.

[tacoman25]

Rusty said it has been cooling for 2 months because the earth always cools in winter. Have you no concept of time period or context or are you just trolling?

In terms of anomalies, it has also been cooling for two months. And it looks like on the satellites, October will see a sizable drop.

[skierinvermont]

In terms of anomalies, it has also been cooling for two months. And it looks like on the satellites, October will see a sizable drop.

Yup but that has almost no effect on the fact that the 12-yr trend is warming.

[tacoman25]

Yup but that has almost no effect on the fact that the 12-yr trend is warming.

Well, of course the .12C/decade warming rate since 1998 depends on the source you use as well...just reminding people of the facts. And with this Nina continuing to strengthen, it is unlikely 2012 will be much (if any) warmer than 2011. Which will significantly effect the trend.

[skierinvermont]

Well, of course the .12C/decade warming rate since 1998 depends on the source you use as well...just reminding people of the facts. And with this Nina continuing to strengthen, it is unlikely 2012 will be much (if any) warmer than 2011. Which will significantly effect the trend.

Not that much since we're talking about a 13-14 year trend. Also my guess is 2012 will be at least .1C warmer on the satellites and .2C warmer on the surface (GISS/HadCRUT+UAH).

[tacoman25]

Not that much since we're talking about a 13-14 year trend. Also my guess is 2012 will be at least .1C warmer on the satellites and .2C warmer on the surface (GISS/HadCRUT+UAH).

You are basing this off a couple of other second year Ninas no doubt, but what you probably aren't considering is the unusual nature of 2011. It is unlikely we see another rise in ENSO as fast as we did in spring 2011. As I've pointed out before, that made a significant difference in 2011's anomaly. Also, there is the potential that this Nina will peak later than 2010-11 did, which would cause the cold anomalies to extend later into 2012.

[skierinvermont]

You are basing this off a couple of other second year Ninas no doubt, but what you probably aren't considering is the unusual nature of 2011. It is unlikely we see another rise in ENSO as fast as we did in spring 2011. As I've pointed out before, that made a significant difference in 2011's anomaly. Also, there is the potential that this Nina will peak later than 2010-11 did, which would cause the cold anomalies to extend later into 2012.

Yes but you are also forgetting that JFM was unusually cold even given the strength of the Nina. I highly doubt we repeat a -.1C anomaly this go around.

That is one reason I expect 2012 to be warmer. The primary reason is that I don't think this Nina will be as strong. We will also have a good chance of heading into a Nino by late summer fall which would effect surface temps almost immediately and satellite temps for the last few months of the year. Also solar activity is on the rise.

Also remember last Nina was very early in its start.. it maintaoined -1.3/-1.5 strength Sep-Feb. For comparison, last JAS was -1.0, this JAS is -.2.

If the Nina is as strong, then maybe it will be a .05 and .15C difference, respectively.

If it's as strong AND we head into a 3rd year Nina mainting -ENSO conditions even in the summer then maybe we will see temperatures as cool or cooler.

[tacoman25]

Yes but you are also forgetting that JFM was unusually cold even given the strength of the Nina. I highly doubt we repeat a -.1C anomaly this go around.

That is one reason I expect 2012 to be warmer. The primary reason is that I don't think this Nina will be as strong. We will also have a good chance of heading into a Nino by late summer fall which would effect surface temps almost immediately and satellite temps for the last few months of the year. Also solar activity is on the rise.

Also remember last Nina was very early in its start.. it maintaoined -1.3/-1.5 strength Sep-Feb. For comparison, last JAS was -1.0, this JAS is -.2.

If the Nina is as strong, then maybe it will be a .05 and .15C difference, respectively.

If it's as strong AND we head into a 3rd year Nina mainting -ENSO conditions even in the summer then maybe we will see temperatures as cool or cooler.

1. JFM was about where I expected it, based on when the Nina peaked and as you mentioned how strong it was early in fall. Look at 2008 when it peaked.

2. Why do you think we will be going into a Nino? We are due for a neutral winter.

Assuming a moderate peak in the -1.1 to -1.4 range (what I expect at this point) in the NDJ timeframe, and a normal rise to near neutral conditions by summer (as opposed to near Nino conditions by late spring as we saw this year), it seems quite possible that Jan-Sep will be colder for 2012 than 2011. The last three months will depend on what ENSO does over the summer.

[gracetoyou]

Rusty said it has been cooling for 2 months because the earth always cools in winter. Have you no concept of time period or context or are you just trolling?

Rusty did not say anything about 2 months...AT FIRST.

Long term is the entire instrumental record going back to 1880 and earlier.

That's the long term warming trend.

Shorter term....let's see....the

diurnal cycle, the annual cycle, ~1 year ENSO, 11 year solar cycle, two or

three decade PDO, AMO etc.

It doesn't make since that Rusty would say that in response to my question. He said the PDO turned negative when the earth is cooling, while I believed the earth temporarily cools because the PDO turns negative. Since we're in -PDO I asked Rusty if he thought the earth was cooling & he responded by saying "I know it is" & he posted the temp link. How would you take that? He didn't say a thing about he thought it was cooling because we're heading into winter. Any grown idiot knows that. He backtracked when you said he didn't say it. The link he posted shows a neutral to cooling trend since 2002 at nearly every point in the atmosphere.

This should not be surprising. There are AGW scientists that believe we've been neutral to cooling over the last decade & there are several well known AGW scientists that believe we will cool the next 20-30yrs "temporarily" slowing global warming but picking up again quickly after the natural cool down. On the other hand there are others that say it hasn't cooled at all & will not but will continue to warm no matter what.

Let's ask Rusty. WeatherRusty, honestly what did you mean when you said the globe was getting cooler? Don't cowder down, since it doesn't mean AGW is false if we enter a short cooling period. I'm not bying for one minute that you were referring the changing of the seasons. Surely you don't think I'm that stupid do you?

[The_Global_Warmer]

I know this may not be in the IPCC report but this is a positive feedback even if it is not that big of one. During peak Solar insolation the snow cover is recently way way way below normal.

[skierinvermont]

Rusty did not say anything about 2 months...AT FIRST.

It doesn't make since that Rusty would say that in response to my question. He said the PDO turned negative when the earth is cooling, while I believed the earth temporarily cools because the PDO turns negative. Since we're in -PDO I asked Rusty if he thought the earth was cooling & he responded by saying "I know it is" & he posted the temp link. How would you take that? He didn't say a thing about he thought it was cooling because we're heading into winter. Any grown idiot knows that. He backtracked when you said he didn't say it. The link he posted shows a neutral to cooling trend since 2002 at nearly every point in the atmosphere.

This should not be surprising. There are AGW scientists that believe we've been neutral to cooling over the last decade & there are several well known AGW scientists that believe we will cool the next 20-30yrs "temporarily" slowing global warming but picking up again quickly after the natural cool down. On the other hand there are others that say it hasn't cooled at all & will not but will continue to warm no matter what.

Let's ask Rusty. WeatherRusty, honestly what did you mean when you said the globe was getting cooler? Don't cowder down, since it doesn't mean AGW is false if we enter a short cooling period. I'm not bying for one minute that you were referring the changing of the seasons. Surely you don't think I'm that stupid do you?

Yes why don't you ask him what he means since you obviously misinterpreted him. He was saying it was cooling over the period of the graph he posted which is merely a few months. He knows as well as anybody else that the 10-12 year trends are very positive. Even tacoman agrees that the 10-12 year trends are ~.12C/decade and that the only way you find negative trends is by cherry-picking start and end points (IE start in an El Nino end in a La Nina). You're the only one that seems confused by this.

[WeatherRusty]

Rusty did not say anything about 2 months...AT FIRST.

It doesn't make since that Rusty would say that in response to my question. He said the PDO turned negative when the earth is cooling, while I believed the earth temporarily cools because the PDO turns negative. Since we're in -PDO I asked Rusty if he thought the earth was cooling & he responded by saying "I know it is" & he posted the temp link. How would you take that? He didn't say a thing about he thought it was cooling because we're heading into winter. Any grown idiot knows that. He backtracked when you said he didn't say it. The link he posted shows a neutral to cooling trend since 2002 at nearly every point in the atmosphere.

This should not be surprising. There are AGW scientists that believe we've been neutral to cooling over the last decade & there are several well known AGW scientists that believe we will cool the next 20-30yrs "temporarily" slowing global warming but picking up again quickly after the natural cool down. On the other hand there are others that say it hasn't cooled at all & will not but will continue to warm no matter what.

Let's ask Rusty. WeatherRusty, honestly what did you mean when you said the globe was getting cooler? Don't cowder down, since it doesn't mean AGW is false if we enter a short cooling period. I'm not bying for one minute that you were referring the changing of the seasons. Surely you don't think I'm that stupid do you?

I haven't the time right now but, I said the globe is cooling now...which it is. I was referring to right now...I was not referring to a decade long trend. As I stated earlier you must define the period in question. It has not cooled over the past decade. 10 of the warmest years on record have all occurred during the last 12 and the decade of the 2000's was the warmest on record.

Anyone might be wrong if they simply assumed the Earth to be cooling because the northern hemisphere was cooling down heading into winter. In fact hey would be right but for the wrong reason. The real reason the globe is currently cooling is becasue the southern hemisphere is warming more slowly than the northern hemisphere is cooling which is the case every year at this time.

I posted the ASMU-Temp site to demonstrate that the Earth is cooling...now.. because of the season. It can also be shown that the Earth cools at intervals of a few years even during a longer term warming trend because of factors related to natural internal variability. I also think we have shown here that PDO can have a small affect (about 0.15C) on global temps both up and down.

The rate of warming has slowed over the past decade, but it has still warmed and not cooled.

[gracetoyou]

Yes why don't you ask him what he means since you obviously misinterpreted him. He was saying it was cooling over the period of the graph he posted which is merely a few months. He knows as well as anybody else that the 10-12 year trends are very positive. Even tacoman agrees that the 10-12 year trends are ~.12C/decade and that the only way you find negative trends is by cherry-picking start and end points (IE start in an El Nino end in a La Nina). You're the only one that seems confused by this.

The upward trend is not obvious. There was a peer reviewed paper in the last year by AGW scientists that addressed the "why" global temps have leveled off somewhat over from 1998-2008 & you say the upward trend is "obvious"??

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pnas-201102467.pdf

I may not buy the reasoning behind their "why" but at least there is an admission from them that you deny.