Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 500mb Energy more potent in the PAC NW compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z JMA @ 850 valid 12z Monday, delayed since they are on the other side of the pond, but figured the 0z thread was the best fit for main side... H5 at 120 is porn, so as to not violate any forum rules, will not post the image as it would be offensive http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I know this is off-topic but I didn't want it to get ignored: On the 18z GFS, are those snow showers along I-95 at hours 90-96 from lake-effect or wrap-around? If so, what should we be looking for to see that continue on the 00z runs? A strong vort north of the lakes I guess would be condusive enough to give us colder temps with snow showers for the following two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 700mb is already closed off over MN...it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Everything is closed at 42... the 700mb low, the 850 low, the 500mb 500 mb reopens at 48 in WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 The sharper trof in the plains seems to be angling the pac jet sharper... BTW, windy in MN? lol. Sub 1000 MB LP in WI, and 1036 MB HP in E ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 1008mb low developing in E MS/W AL at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 The noticible difference at the surface is the cold front is much faster across the OV by 54. This is going to be a good run for W NC, WV, Western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Has the 500h energy gone negative tilt by 66? It looks like it... its at the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The NAM has a piece of the PV positioned west to east due north of the sw trough, this is moving southward and as a result pushes the entire trough further south and prevents it from phasing/ going negative too early. The GFS has the PV feature aligned more north to south and it phases in earlier creating a more westerly solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The noticible difference at the surface is the cold front is much faster across the OV by 54. This is going to be a good run for W NC, WV, Western VA. TN getting about a foot out of this run. See what happens when it goes negative tilt, still neutral @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Good run for many - even some accumulating snow for central/northern VA and central MD. WV and PA do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 TN getting about a foot out of this run. See what happens when it goes negative tilt, still neutral @ 60 I've no idea what map you're looking at, as I see nothing indicating that... This is a drastically different solution from 18z and shows just how much shifting is still to be done. Everything is basically shoved 100+ miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I've no idea what map you're looking at, as I see nothing indicating that... This is a drastically different solution from 18z and shows just how much shifting is still to be done. Everything is basically shoved 100+ miles east. 84 PV about to phase in trough going negative, cold down to NYC Weenies will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I've no idea what map you're looking at, as I see nothing indicating that... This is a drastically different solution from 18z and shows just how much shifting is still to be done. Everything is basically shoved 100+ miles east. That's the cool part of this, all the different solutions and changes. But, taken as is, this solution would be interesting up in northern VA, I would think just by looking at 850's, 700 rh, and the sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 84 PV about to phase in trough going negative, cold down to NYC Weenies will be happy The new low developing in the ATL looks like it will be too far out for most at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's the cool part of this, all the different solutions and changes. But, taken as is, this solution would be interesting up in northern VA, I would think just by looking at 850's, 700 rh, and the sim radar. yes and no I don't think much falls at all as snow at the end from central VA to central MD but, there's still time for us to get an inch or two if we're lucky, so I'm staying tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I've no idea what map you're looking at, as I see nothing indicating that... This is a drastically different solution from 18z and shows just how much shifting is still to be done. Everything is basically shoved 100+ miles east. checked the sims out and 6 hour increments of qpf, show that I stand to be corrected. Still a decent shot at accumulating snow. Case of cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yesterday afternoon, consensus was that the primary would track to the south and east of chicago. Now, the low is forecast to track through southern Minnesota. When was the last time there was this much inconsistency with the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's the cool part of this, all the different solutions and changes. But, taken as is, this solution would be interesting up in northern VA, I would think just by looking at 850's, 700 rh, and the sim radar. temps look to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s at 72hr so if its snow it will not stick http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znampmsl10mwinds2mtemps072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 So close to a really big deal... and so close to nothing. Fun couple days ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 yes and no I don't think much falls at all as snow at the end from central VA to central MD but, there's still time for us to get an inch or two if we're lucky, so I'm staying tuned Hr 72 the 0C 850 straddles i-95.... If you do the 6hr QPF from VA into PA... you get 0.10-0.25. True, who knows how the other layers are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hr 72 the 0C 850 straddles i-95.... If you do the 6hr QPF from VA into PA... you get 0.10-0.25. True, who knows how the other layers are at 72 hrs. we're around 40-42 at the surface per the map posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So hr 84 has a 984 just south of long island with little precip, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 temps look to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s at 72hr so if its snow it will not stick http://raleighwx.ame...s2mtemps072.gif Well, where I'm located, that 32 degree line is at my backdoor. But I know what you're saying. Heck, in 6 hours it will be a different look anyway. I'd be happy with an inch. I'm just amazed at all of these different possibilities and changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The storm is moving hundreds of miles every 6 hours and people are quibbling over surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So hr 84 has a 984 just south of long island with little precip, go figure. The storm is basically over as the banding shifts east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It look like to me the NAM has no idea where to put the 2nd Low if there will be a 2nd Low with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It look like to me the NAM has no idea where to put the 2nd Low if there will be a 2nd Low with this system. This is out of the NAM's range. It's meant to be used for short-term high-resolution modeling, not synoptic evolution of a system this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 This is out of the NAM's range. It's meant to be used for short-term high-resolution modeling, not synoptic evolution of a system this far out. bingo.......got to get w/in 48hr's xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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