Roger Smith winter forecast -- mild mild cold

[Roger Smith]

Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February.

Would say that large anomalies are favoured in the pattern suggested, so could see anomalies of +4F or greater in December and January, and -4 F or lower in February.

The severe cold suggested for February will probably pool over central Canada and the north central states from late November to mid-January to fire up a storm track that will run something like KS-MN early in the season, MO-MI later in January, and eventually GA-seVA-NS by February, as the severe cold pool is drained out by deflation of a persistent east coast ridge in the first half of winter.

West coast may escape the direct influences of the western cold pool as a confluent jet stream near northern Vancouver Island drops southeast into the southern Rockies. This would favour heavy snowfalls in the interior parts of BC and southern Alberta, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, northern/central Utah, and Colorado this winter. It may favour heavy rains on the west coast including much of California.

Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best.

Possible record warmth around Jan 7-10.

Not terribly different from 2010, I suppose ... which sounds good so ... patience !!!

[uncle W]

Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February.

Would say that large anomalies are favoured in the pattern suggested, so could see anomalies of +4F or greater in December and January, and -4 F or lower in February.

The severe cold suggested for February will probably pool over central Canada and the north central states from late November to mid-January to fire up a storm track that will run something like KS-MN early in the season, MO-MI later in January, and eventually GA-seVA-NS by February, as the severe cold pool is drained out by deflation of a persistent east coast ridge in the first half of winter.

West coast may escape the direct influences of the western cold pool as a confluent jet stream near northern Vancouver Island drops southeast into the southern Rockies. This would favour heavy snowfalls in the interior parts of BC and southern Alberta, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, northern/central Utah, and Colorado this winter. It may favour heavy rains on the west coast including much of California.

Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best.

Possible record warmth around Jan 7-10.

Not terribly different from 2010, I suppose ... which sounds good so ... patience !!!

good luck Roger...If blocking comes later than the last two years your forecast might work out...the models are all over the place but some are very positive for the ao as we start November...1971-72 would be a good analog...I think we get stronger blocking than 1971-72 this year...When it comes is the question...

[Lee]

The only thing remotely similar to 2010 with that forecast would be February. December and January were both cold in the East.

[BethesdaWX]

The only thing remotely similar to 2010 with that forecast would be February. December and January were both cold in the East.

I think he was referring to last winter but I could be mistaken

[Damage In Tolland]

[winterymix]

Nice...JI on suicide watch.

Roger...what are you seeing that gives you confidence that early January will be so warm?

[Roger Smith]

re 2010 ... true, temperature anomalies for January were negative especially DC and southeast US, but most or all of that happened in the first ten days, and the storm track was inactive until the late month snowstorm that began the parade in February. Also I believe Jan 2010 was fairly mild in New England from the effects of blocking.

My forecast of near-record warmth in early January this winter is based on the numerical output I have generated which shows several peaks of +5 to +10 anomaly in Dec and Jan followed by a reversal to -5 to -10 in parts of Feb. In any milder than average January the period around the full moon and northern declination max of the moon is usually near record warmth, and the timing on the numerical output for non-lunar factors reinforced this trend. The research model would suggest a deep low moving north to northeast through the central plains and western Great Lakes in this time frame. The shifting southeast of the storm track should start to develop in the second half of January (as in 1967) but in that analogue the lunar cycle was almost reversed from this year. This brought record warmth around 23rd to 26th despite the shifting jet stream. I'm speculating that when the storm track shifts in 2012, there will be less of a warm signal so it may tend to shift faster to start up the east coast storm track just before the end of January.

The mention of 1971-72 would be a somewhat similar case also, the December anomalies were quite warm, January was near normal or slightly above and February (to April) quite cold. So a blend of that with 1966-67 might provide a reasonable comparison. Other winters that followed this temperature anomaly pattern would include 1915-16, 1949-50 1988-89 and 1992-93.

I would note that forecasts of a very cold winter in the central-western regions tilt the balance of probability to mild in the east at least through mid-January. It's unusual for a cold anomaly centered around SK-MT to extend past the western Great Lakes, as in Jan 1984.

[Ellinwood]

So, in terms of the usual stuff people look at for winter, the 1950-present analogs you posted favor a moderate (or weak) Nina (with the exception of 1992-93, with was neutral heading into Nino territory), +NAO, +AO or netural AO, -PNA and -PDO (with the exception of 1992-93, which had a slightly positive PDO). Basically, the only significant difference in the forecast compared to what most are calling for lies in the AO/NAO.

[tamarack]

re 2010 ... true, temperature anomalies for January were negative especially DC and southeast US, but most or all of that happened in the first ten days, and the storm track was inactive until the late month snowstorm that began the parade in February. Also I believe Jan 2010 was fairly mild in New England from the effects of blocking.

The farther NE one went, the more abnormally warm it was. CAR was something like +9 for the month; Then they were +10.5 in Feb, about +8 for Mar and +7 for April. J/F were each their 2nd mildest since records began in 1939, and M/A were each #1. That 4-month period was almost +9, and is CAR's mildest by nearly 4F. The #2 JFMA (in 1958) is closer to #22 than to the new #1.

[NEOH]

Roger - Thanks for providing your forecast. What was the verification like for your Winter forecasts the past few years? Thanks.

[Lee]

I think he was referring to last winter but I could be mistaken

It wouldn't matter as both were colder than normal in December and January in much of the area,lol..sure northern reaches were somewhat above due to the -NAO . Dec-Feb. 09-10

http://climvis.ncdc....-map-display.pl

Dec-Feb. 10-11

http://climvis.ncdc....-map-display.pl

As you can see neither was a blowtorch even in the northern sections as would be the case with that forecast for Dec. and Jan. Last Winter was normal to below pretty much everywhere and that's including a very mild February in the East.

As we all can see Roger clarified this somewhat in his latter reply.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

You never know Roger, at the rate things are going, you might nail this forecast.

[New England Storm]

Late winter cold snap eh? We will all take what we can get, thanks for the work on this forcast. Good luck to you!

P.S I wonder if winter season severe thunderstorms will be an issue for some? When the cold snap happens that is.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Roger, you are nailing the winter forecast thus far.

[NorEaster27]

[Alpha5]

[Ji]

Scary good forecast

[Feb]

Scary good forecast

Best one i have seen so far.

[Damage In Tolland]

[Mr Torchey]

perfection

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

very nice...first half of the forecast looks spot on. lets hope the second half of it is as well.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February.

Would say that large anomalies are favoured in the pattern suggested, so could see anomalies of +4F or greater in December and January, and -4 F or lower in February.

The severe cold suggested for February will probably pool over central Canada and the north central states from late November to mid-January to fire up a storm track that will run something like KS-MN early in the season, MO-MI later in January, and eventually GA-seVA-NS by February, as the severe cold pool is drained out by deflation of a persistent east coast ridge in the first half of winter.

West coast may escape the direct influences of the western cold pool as a confluent jet stream near northern Vancouver Island drops southeast into the southern Rockies. This would favour heavy snowfalls in the interior parts of BC and southern Alberta, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, northern/central Utah, and Colorado this winter. It may favour heavy rains on the west coast including much of California.

Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best.

Possible record warmth around Jan 7-10.

Not terribly different from 2010, I suppose ... which sounds good so ... patience !!!

All I can say is congratulations so far Roger. It even looks like early January could see a torch.

[MJO812]

So far so good

[easternsnowman]

Roger has the best forecast for the winter I believe the rest of the season will turn out like that. I don't see any changes till late January then we could have a big storm after.

[ag3]

Great job so far.

[Organizing Low]

i remember when roger nailed the december january foreacast a couple yrs back, right down to exact days and storm tracks.

[Poimen]

Roger, are you still sticking with your February/March forecast?

[tnweathernut]

Incredible accuracy to this point Roger, bravo on your forecast.

[Mr Torchey]

BRAVO

[ayuud]

this guy nailed it lol.