How Important is December Snowfall?

[ORH_wxman]

If you call good Dec has 18 or more what is your average final.

Well lets see:

Year.....Dec snow....seasonal snow

1956........18.2".............65.6"

1960........20.8".............104.3"

1961........23.0".............85.7"

1962........18.1".............75.7"

1967........22.2".............66.2"

1969........29.5".............72.1"

1970........32.1".............80.0"

1975........18.1".............62.5"

1981........24.6".............75.0"

1992........37.0".............120.1"

1995........22.9".............132.9"

1996........28.2".............87.5"

1997........22.3".............54.7"

2002........30.5".............117.3"

2003........21.5".............56.5"

2005........18.0".............66.2"

2007........27.1".............70.1"

2008........31.4".............76.9"

2009........20.7".............64.6"

Avg...........24.5".............80.7"

So in the big Decembers, they are about 30% of the winter total.

[ORH_wxman]

What's interesting is that both of your stats show (BDL/ORH) that even though the poor Decembers were only 3/6" below average on average, they were followed by seasons with 14/23" below average snowfall.. so clearly the poor pattern continued into the rest of the year. The deficits aren't juts due to December, they actually got much larger. That's somewhat surprising to me, it actually seems like a decent predictor.

Particularly in non-Nino years....which is why I have been worried about a bad December going back to the late summer and fall. I said we don't want a crappy December.

Much easier to get away with it in Ninos.

Still a ways to go though this month. The pattern has been okay, its not like many of those Decembers on that list where we torched to death and had no chance before we even jumped out of the gate. (ala 2006, 1999, 1998, 1994, 1984, 1952, 1953, etc) So I'm still pretty optimistic that we won't have to include 2010 on this list.

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing run of great Dec in the 2000s no wonder the youngsters are freaking out, it's all they have known.

[skierinvermont]

Particularly in non-Nino years....which is why I have been worried about a bad December going back to the late summer and fall. I said we don't want a crappy December.

Much easier to get away with it in Ninos.

Still a ways to go though this month. The pattern has been okay, its not like many of those Decembers on that list where we torched to death and had no chance before we even jumped out of the gate. (ala 2006, 1999, 1998, 1994, 1984, 1952, 1953, etc) So I'm still pretty optimistic that we won't have to include 2010 on this list.

I still think we cash in too.. we can't keep getting unlucky forever. If we get to Dec 20 and there is nothing on the horizon then I will worry. Although it probably doesn't matter as much for me being so far south, I can get close to seasonal snowfall from one lucky storm in Jan or Feb.

[weathafella]

In all the above normal years, December had decent snow. All of them.....no exceptions per my memory. It could happen this year.

[ORH_wxman]

In all the above normal years, December had decent snow. All of them.....no exceptions per my memory. It could happen this year.

2004-2005 only had 7.2" at BOS which is below average...almost all of that came in the Dec 26-27, 2004 storm that hammered the Cape. 1977-1978 had 5.2" at BOS in December but you were living in LA at the time right?

In El Ninos, its much easier to get away with it vs Ninas.

[Ginx snewx]

In all the above normal years, December had decent snow. All of them.....no exceptions per my memory. It could happen this year.

You were in Cali in 77 when Boston had 5.2?

[weathafella]

2004-2005 only had 7.2" at BOS which is below average...almost all of that came in the Dec 26-27, 2004 storm that hammered the Cape. 1977-1978 had 5.2" at BOS in December but you were living in LA at the time right?

In El Ninos, its much easier to get away with it vs Ninas.

But that's the point. 12/26-27/04 was a decent storm. I thought we got around 10 from that? I was in LA for 77-78 and having 50 in a 2 week period doesn't hurt the season total...lol...

[Ginx snewx]

But that's the point. 12/26-27/04 was a decent storm. I thought we got around 10 from that? I was in LA for 77-78 and having 50 in a 2 week period doesn't hurt the season total...lol...

What is so great about good Dec snow is that it lasts so long usually and in the best years it is still under the pack and the last to melt.

[Ginx snewx]

Out at Upton on Long Island I could only find two winters ('73-'74 and '77-'78) that featured poor December snowfall and ended up a good or very good when the seasonal tally was finalized / length of record exceeds 60 years.

Wonder why the opposite isn't true?

[weathafella]

What is so great about good Dec snow is that it lasts so long usually and in the best years it is still under the pack and the last to melt.

It takes a serious torch to melt a good December dump. Especially one that has sleet contamination to seal the pack. 1960 snow seemed never to melt....at least 2+ months duration.

[ORH_wxman]

But that's the point. 12/26-27/04 was a decent storm. I thought we got around 10 from that? I was in LA for 77-78 and having 50 in a 2 week period doesn't hurt the season total...lol...

Logan airport kind of got screwed in the Dec 26-27, 2004 storm...you probably had 10" in YBY...everyone around them in every direction reported more...so I have actually been suspicious of that total.

But I was pointing out some years where BOS recovered to have a big season after a terrible start. They are certainly rare though. '55-'56, '57-'58, and '68-'69 are a few more off the top of my head.

[Ginx snewx]

If this is an attempt at being smart alecky, it fell flat...

Uh WTF no I meant only two winters with bad snow ended above why do great Dec not produce the same results on the higher end you are pointing out a very high correlation.

[ORH_wxman]

Uh WTF no I meant only two winters with bad snow ended above why do great Dec not produce the same results, you are pointing out a very high correlation.

I'm not sure you can find many great Decembers that were still terrible winters. I think the opposite IS true. You'll probably just find a few like we only found a few where a bad December recovered to a great winter.

[powderfreak]

What I've learned from this whole discussion is that if snowfall is poor in December, you can still have a decent year if things start to break right... but you can pretty much rule out a true "blockbuster" season completely. You can still pull a normal to above snowfall season, but won't be breaking any records or getting to triple digits (which seems like it would be obvious because you are cutting out a decent winter month).

[Ginx snewx]

I'm not sure you can find many great Decembers that were still terrible winters. I think the opposite IS true. You'll probably just find a few like we only found a few where a bad December recovered to a great winter.

True but depends on how.far above average you go. Last years great led to average but it sure didn't feel great after dec.

[Ginx snewx]

What I've learned from this whole discussion is that if snowfall is poor in December, you can still have a decent year if things start to break right... but you can pretty much rule out a true "blockbuster" season completely. You can still pull a normal to above snowfall season, but won't be breaking any records or getting to triple digits (which seems like it would be obvious because you are cutting out a decent winter month).

Unllees you live in upslope heaven where winter rocksurcocksoff awesome man, enjoy the groomers tomorrow, fast and furious.

[ORH_wxman]

What I've learned from this whole discussion is that if snowfall is poor in December, you can still have a decent year if things start to break right... but you can pretty much rule out a true "blockbuster" season completely. You can still pull a normal to above snowfall season, but won't be breaking any records or getting to triple digits (which seems like it would be obvious because you are cutting out a decent winter month).

We almost pulled it off in 1957-1958....2.2" in December and 97.5" on the season.

That's pretty impossible to duplicate though.

[skierinvermont]

Out at Upton on Long Island I could only find two winters ('73-'74 and '77-'78) that featured poor December snowfall and ended up a good or very good when the seasonal tally was finalized / length of record exceeds 60 years.

I wonder if J-M continued to be poor though, they could have just been average and because of the poor December you finish the year below average. What the ORH and BDL stats show is that the deficit just continues to grow after a poor December, but I don't think that would be AS true farther south. I would expect the relationship to be weaker because we average less snowfall in December anyways and because we get much of our snowfall from one or two big storms.

[Logan11]

I really don't care whether Dec. snowfall (or lack thereof) bodes well or not for the whole winter. I mean- it's nice if things still break for a good Jan-March, but you still blew a month of the winter season.

Dec. snowfall IS important because I can't stand pissing away a met. winter month with cold wx and brown useless ground! I really don't think I would rate a winter by total snowfall. I measure it by consistent snowfall and depth of the snow pack.

Case in point last year: look at my total (99") and think it was a great winter. Not really.... One obviously great storm surrounded by a sea of mediocrity and followed by nothing as winter died on March 1st.

But anyway December 2010 could still redeem. Revisit this in two weeks I guess.

[skierinvermont]

I really don't care whether Dec. snowfall (or lack thereof) bodes well or not for the whole winter. I mean- it's nice if things still break for a good Jan-March, but you still blew a month of the winter season.

Dec. snowfall IS important because I can't stand pissing away a met. winter month with cold wx and brown useless ground! I really don't think I would rate a winter by total snowfall. I measure it by consistent snowfall and depth of the snow pack.

Case in point last year: look at my total (99") and think it was a great winter. Not really.... One obviously great storm surrounded by a sea of mediocrity and followed by nothing as winter died on March 1st.

But anyway December 2010 could still redeem. Revisit this in two weeks I guess.

You are sort of reviving the great debate of snowpack vs the big one, and it got me thinking. Down here I don't really care about snowpack that much I just fantasize about the big one of 12 or 20 or 30". I'm probably not going to keep much snowpack for very long anyways. In NNE we had 3 15"+ storms while I was there and they were great but I didn't appreciate them AS much because I was getting lots of 6-12" type events. The snowpack was definitely important to me, I just did not like seeing brown ground in January, it felt wrong. Last winter was good because we had 2 storms over 15" but it was also annoying not having snowpack for extended periods. So I guess what I am saying is there is no right answer to the snowpack vs 'the big one' debate, my answer is determined by where I live and what my expectations are. I guess I still have an affinity for 'the big one' and if I had to pick one I guess I would remain true to my SNE roots and pick that over snowpack.

[powderfreak]

We almost pulled it off in 1957-1958....2.2" in December and 97.5" on the season.

That's pretty impossible to duplicate though.

Yeah, so it is *possible* to have a really solid year even if December sucks... it may not be likely, but for the optimistic, its still possible. And it is even more possible to have an average season... which I bet most of us would be pleased with. Average/climo norm is at least a good benchmark for an acceptable season, lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, so it is *possible* to have a really solid year even if December sucks... it may not be likely, but for the optimistic, its still possible. And it is even more possible to have an average season... which I bet most of us would be pleased with. Average/climo norm is at least a good benchmark for an acceptable season, lol.

I'll take average usually...just as long as its not interrupted by too many warmups and melting of snow pack episodes. Last year actually had pretty average to above average snow pack too, but the agony of missing out on so many huge storms made last year's average season feel a lot worse.

I think we only had a handful of days last winter without snow pack in DJF....March was an epic disaster though. The ending combined with the constant teases made it a winter I can live without repeating.

[skierinvermont]

Obviously the less snowfall a station averages, the smaller proportions year to date deficits generally reach; still eradicating even a minor deficit is a difficult chore at a station that is not climatologically favored to receive snowfall...I'd argue it is as easy for Worcester to make up a 20" deficit in two months time as it is for Upton to make up a 10" deficit over the same span since the former averages at least twice the snowfall per year of the latter...

You are probably right about the 10" vs 20" (the correct proportion would be more like 7 vs 20" since they average close to 3X what we do)... but I think it would be easier for us to make up a 3" deficit in December than for them to make up a 8-9" deficit, since our snowfall is more volatile.

I'm also more interested in the predictive power of this for J-M than I am in its predictive power for the season as a whole. For BDL/ORH a bad D actually predicts a bad J-M, but does the same hold true for Upton?

[Logan11]

Maybe my view has swung more to the consistency and deep snow pack side of it now because I know I most likely will never top that storm in February. That was it for my lifetime! 46 inches in four days shall not be surpassed unless I move to the Tug Hill. LOL

Now I need to enjoy the finer nuances of winter wx, a several hour white out, thunder snow, deep snowpack, etc. I want more big storms obviously, but I have seen my biggest in all likelihood.

You are sort of reviving the great debate of snowpack vs the big one, and it got me thinking. Down here I don't really care about snowpack that much I just fantasize about the big one of 12 or 20 or 30". I'm probably not going to keep much snowpack for very long anyways. In NNE we had 3 15"+ storms while I was there and they were great but I didn't appreciate them AS much because I was getting lots of 6-12" type events. The snowpack was definitely important to me, I just did not like seeing brown ground in January, it felt wrong. Last winter was good because we had 2 storms over 15" but it was also annoying not having snowpack for extended periods. So I guess what I am saying is there is no right answer to the snowpack vs 'the big one' debate, my answer is determined by where I live and what my expectations are. I guess I still have an affinity for 'the big one' and if I had to pick one I guess I would remain true to my SNE roots and pick that over snowpack.

[skierinvermont]

Here's the Upton chart...its running a little late so I don't have time to review it. A recent string of snowy winters have pulled Upton close to 50% of Worcester's annual snowfall btw(average up to 31.3") , though still a bit short of it...see chart.

http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm

Thanks - I just skimmed it I didn't run the stats but it became pretty obvious that a bad December isn't just a predictor of a bad winter, it's also a predictor of a bad J-M. I think you were sort of suggesting that might be the case, I'm still somewhat surprised it's such a strong predictor. I didn't know Upton average 31".. GON only averages 22" or so, I might be more like 24 or 25" since I am 5 miles from the shore.

[nzucker]

Thanks - I just skimmed it I didn't run the stats but it became pretty obvious that a bad December isn't just a predictor of a bad winter, it's also a predictor of a bad J-M. I think you were sort of suggesting that might be the case, I'm still somewhat surprised it's such a strong predictor. I didn't know Upton average 31".. GON only averages 22" or so, I might be more like 24 or 25" since I am 5 miles from the shore.

This winter might be an exception to the bad December=bad winter rule, despite the fact that it's a strong La Niña. With the -NAO/-AO block that seems to be so dominant and recurring in the past few years, it's possible that the high-latitude blocking stays around and New England gets better snows in January and February as the jet migrates south and the baroclinic zone shifts more towards the coast. I also think the pattern screams constant clippers and upslope snows, which will certainly add to the totals in the LES belts, Vermont, etc. I'm just worried that this seems to be a dry/cold December like December 1988, which led to a horrible winter. I'd like to pick up a widespread system snow across the area before Christmas, but the lack of a STJ and the mediocre Pacific pattern is making things harder.

[skierinvermont]

The coast of New London County, CT has long been a snow hole, we discussed some possible reasons (beyond the obvious) on Eastern some time ago. The 22'" does sound a bit low though and might be reflective of some missing data.. I'd guess they are probably closer to 25".

Yep hard to find good records

[skierinvermont]

This winter might be an exception to the bad December=bad winter rule, despite the fact that it's a strong La Niña. With the -NAO/-AO block that seems to be so dominant and recurring in the past few years, it's possible that the high-latitude blocking stays around and New England gets better snows in January and February as the jet migrates south and the baroclinic zone shifts more towards the coast. I also think the pattern screams constant clippers and upslope snows, which will certainly add to the totals in the LES belts, Vermont, etc. I'm just worried that this seems to be a dry/cold December like December 1988, which led to a horrible winter. I'd like to pick up a widespread system snow across the area before Christmas, but the lack of a STJ and the mediocre Pacific pattern is making things harder.

We don't need the jet to migrate farther south.. we just had a long period of suppression by a too dominant -NAO. But yeah.. if the -NAO sticks around we will cash in eventually

[ORH_wxman]

This winter might be an exception to the bad December=bad winter rule, despite the fact that it's a strong La Niña. With the -NAO/-AO block that seems to be so dominant and recurring in the past few years, it's possible that the high-latitude blocking stays around and New England gets better snows in January and February as the jet migrates south and the baroclinic zone shifts more towards the coast. I also think the pattern screams constant clippers and upslope snows, which will certainly add to the totals in the LES belts, Vermont, etc. I'm just worried that this seems to be a dry/cold December like December 1988, which led to a horrible winter. I'd like to pick up a widespread system snow across the area before Christmas, but the lack of a STJ and the mediocre Pacific pattern is making things harder.

Dec '88 had a +NAO...and the rest of the winter had an obscene +NAO...I think that was the most +NAO/AO winter on record.

The NAO/AO tendency has me feeling a lot better about avoiding a repeat. I don't even think this month will be bad despite a frustrating start. We should cash in at some point.