alby_14 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Gday guys n girls Time to fire up the Aussie TC threads, and this lil competition thread. For the 3 categories, the winner will receive from myself a BoM weather calendar and a random book on TC Tracy. They will be posted to you in the States or wherever you happen to reside! And Josh can attest, I will get the package to you, eventually! Anyone living in Australia can contribute/guess but are not eligible for a prize as I want to promote the Aussie weather to non residents. All of the categories have more than one scenario. This is to try and distinguish between identical/close/similar guesses if the need arises. Entries received after November 15, midnight Australian CST, will not be eligible for a prize. Changes to your guesses can be made up until this time. Again, apologies for the lack of time given, and for the strange deadline. I just need to get the ball rolling. Any system that reaches TC status before the closing date will not be included in the 3rdcategory results. Entrants are asked to use the Australian TC classification.See the detailed post by Josh here, http://www.americanw...tion-2011-2012/, to compare global scales to the one used by Australia. All decisions regarding results made by me are final. Please see below map for designated areas of responsibility and towns/locations. The 3 categories are: 1. Number of classified TC’s within Australian waters, and number of severe TC’s within Australian waters. Please also include what you think will be the lowest pressure achieved by a TC in Australian waters this year. This will be used to split any same entries and/or used to award a random bonus prize. 2. Date, location and intensity of the first Australian landfalling TC at the time of crossing. Try and be specific for location. I understand that your Australian geography will be a bit scratchy. Use the towns/locations on the map if you are unsure, ie between Darwin and Pt Stuart. 3. Date and location of the first TC to form within Australian waters. Date and location will be when it reaches TC status. Date is for the 24 hour period Darwin CST, starting at midnight. Location is to be as per the BoM area of responsibility map. Ie. Perth, Darwin and Brisbane. In order to win, closest to the date wins, with location deciding any close calls. As an example, please state your answers/guesses using the following format and examples: Category 1. - 99 TC’s within Australian waters. 77 severe TC’s within Australian waters. Lowest pressure will be 870hPa Category 2. - 22/12/2010. Between Darwin and Pt Stuart. Category 5. Category 3. - 18/12/2010. Darwin area. Organising a competition of this sorts is still a new one for me so please be patient lol. Please also feel free to ask any questions, get me to clarify things etc etc. Post your guesses here, and/or PM them to me Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 1. 14/8 - 935mb 2. Port Hedland - Cat 2 3. 20/11/2011 - Joseph Bonaparte Gulf Hope you don't mind, alby, but I edited the thread title so it's more in line with other contests. Hopefully, it will draw more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 1) 16/8 - 928mb 2) Cape Leveque - Cat 3 3) 19/11/2011 - Darwin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Give me a couple of days to get my guess together. Hopefully more of our tropical folks will join in as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 1. 14/8 - 935mb 2. Port Hedland - Cat 2 3. 20/11/2011 - Joseph Bonaparte Gulf Hope you don't mind, alby, but I edited the thread title so it's more in line with other contests. Hopefully, it will draw more attention. Awesome, we are off and running! No dramas at all re. the title Good luck peoples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 1. 12/6 - 930mb 2. 12/9/11 - Near Pardoo - Cat 2 3. 18/11/2011 - Perth Area of Responsibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I am soooooooooooo not a forecaster, but here goes. Category 1. 15 TCs/10 STCs within Australian waters. Lowest pressure 920 mb. Category 2. 28/12/2011 - Karratha, WA - Cat 3 (AUS scale, not USA scale). Category 3. 15/11/2011 - Brisbane area (Eastern Region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Note: As you probably noticed, Stephen, we all write "mb", not "hPa", here. Hope that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 By the way, these are the cool prizes that Stephen sent me last year. The Tracy book is awesome. The calendar is great, too-- and obviously, it would be the new one (not the one shown in the photo): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 1) 13/7/932mb 2) 28//12/2011 Between Cape Melville and Cooktown - CAT 2 3) 20/11/2011- Perth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'm not eligible for the prizes so I won't make specific guesses. However, conditions look good for a nice Coral sea monster cyclone this season (and I think we'll generally see Coral sea cyclones come further south than usual this season. I like the Gulf of Carpentaria for a good, tight little cat 4/5. I also think we'll see at least one WA cyclone head unusually far south Jan/ Feb next year, I think that will be a large storm but not nuch more than cat 2. Of course, if that damn monsoon trough drifts way south again this summer, forget all I wrote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 14/8/945 mb Cape Shield to Port McArthur- Aus. Cat 3 Brisbane area, first day of Advent. November 27, I think that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Bump for Mallowberry, thewxmann, and a few others. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 1. Number of classified TC’s within Australian waters, and number of severe TC’s within Australian waters. Please also include what you think will be the lowest pressure achieved by a TC in Australian waters this year. 15 cyclones, 8 severe cyclones, lowest pressure 941mb 2. Date, location and intensity of the first Australian landfalling TC at the time of crossing. Try and be specific for location. I understand that your Australian geography will be a bit scratchy. Use the towns/locations on the map if you are unsure, ie between Darwin and Pt Stuart. January 17th, 50 mi north of Broome, Category 2 3. Date and location of the first TC to form within Australian waters. Date and location will be when it reaches TC status. Date is for the 24 hour period Darwin CST, starting at midnight. Location is to be as per the BoM area of responsibility map. Ie. Perth, Darwin and Brisbane. December 18th, Western (Perth) Region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Category 1. 12 TCs/7 STCs/933mb. Category 2. Jan 13- Lockhart River to Cape Grenville - Aussie Cat 2. Category 3. Nov. 25- Perth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Oh, cool-- some new entries. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I dont know much about Australian TCs, so here goes nothing. 1. 12 classified TC's, 6 severe. Min pressure 926 mb. 2. First landfall: South Hedland, Australia, upper end Aussie Cat 2 on December 15. 3. First classified TC: the 31st of November, Brisbane region of responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 1. Storm count 12 / 7, min pres. 938 mbs 2. First landfall Townsville Dec 8th ... cat 2 3. First formation 300 miles northeast Townsville Dec 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Gday peoples. Just giving this a bump in the hope that more people will enter. So far we have: am19psu 1. 14/8 - 935mb 2. 12/12/2011 - Port Hedland - Cat 2 3. 20/11/2011 - Joseph Bonaparte Gulf wxmx 1. 16/8 - 928mb 2. Cape Leveque - Cat 3 3. 19/11/2011 - Darwin phil882 1. 12/6 - 930mb 2. 12/9/2011 - Near Pardoo - Cat 2 3. 18/11/2011 - Perth Area of Responsibility HurricaneJosh 1. 15/10 - 920mb 2. 28/12/2011 - Karratha - Cat 3 3. 15/11/2011 - Brisbane Area of Responsibility Srain 1. 13/7 - 932mb 2. 28/12/2011 - Between Cape Melville and Cooktown - Cat 2 3. 20/11/2011 - Perth Area of Responsibility Ed Mahmoud 1. 14/8 - 945mb 2. Cape Shield to Port McArthur - Cat 3 3. 27/11/2011 - Brisbane Area of Responsibility Mallow 1. 15/8 - 941mb 2. 17/01/2012 - Broome - Cat 2 3. 18/12/2011 - Perth Area of Responsibility Scuddz 1. 12/7 - 933mb 2. 13/01/2012 -Lockhart River to Cape Grenville - Cat 2 3. 25/11/2011 - Perth Area of Responsibility thewxmann 1. 12/6 - 926mb 2. 15/12/2011 -Port Hedland - Cat 2 3. 30/11/2011 - Brisbane Area of Responsibility Roger Smith 1. 12/7 - 938mb 2. 08/12/2011 -Townsville - Cat 2 3. 04/12/2011 - Brisbane Area of Responsibility Could am19psu, wxmx and Ed Mahmoud please enter a date for #2. Cheers guys and girls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Could am19psu, wxmx and Ed Mahmoud please enter a date for #2. Cheers guys and girls Oops. Let's go with 12/12/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Oops. Let's go with 12/12/2011 Cheers Boss Ive updated the above list. And I just remembered that here in Australia we put the date before the month. ie: 07/12/2011 = 7 December 2011. Could people just please have a quick read to make sure ive got dates, and other details, correct? Cheers. On a side note, I was thinking of extending the closing date to the end of November to give some more time for people to enter. Nothing appears likely to happen in November at this stage, however the MJO is cruising through... Remember that you can change your guesses, any time, any number of times, up until the closing date, but if it happens before the closing date it isnt included in the results. Any thoughts? Make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Gday peoples. Just giving this a bump in the hope that more people will enter. So far we have: Could am19psu, wxmx and Ed Mahmoud please enter a date for #2. Cheers guys and girls In my attempts to copy everything Adam does, I even copy his omissions, sorry 29/12/2011 Cheers Boss Ive updated the above list. And I just remembered that here in Australia we put the date before the month. ie: 07/12/2011 = 7 December 2011. Could people just please have a quick read to make sure ive got dates, and other details, correct? Cheers. As it should be. Now, if we could get rid of those pesky mph in the NAtl and EPac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 31 November seems an unlikely date for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 31 November seems an unlikely date for anything. LOL now how did I miss that. Thank you... I should've meant 30 Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 LOL now how did I miss that. Thank you... I should've meant 30 Nov Oops, as you can see im paying close attention and scrutinising every guess :blush: Ive amended the entry, cheers Roger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just checked the Australian gov't weather website (bom.gov.au) and the tropical cyclone outlooks for all three regions are for very low activity next three days. So anyway, here's a satellite loop you might want to bookmark if you're in this contest. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/satellite/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The season has begun -- today is Dec 1 "down under." The three outlooks remain very low, I just checked -- minor activity is noted southwest of Java that could be something to watch in the western region but it's not rated more than low instead of very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I would guess most contest participants know these factoids, but ... 1. The first named cyclone was Alenga in the western zone which lasted Dec 6-9, and did not make landfall. 2. A second cyclone formed in the Coral Sea and then moved off towards NZ last week. 3, A third storm, Grant, formed north of Darwin a few days ago and made landfall today (Oz time) in northernmost Cape Croker, I think as a cat-2 if not cat-1. So that answers the first two questions, we still have total count for season and minimum pressure of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Here's an unofficial mid-season update on this contest. There have been 7 named storms, 2 of which were "major" at some point. The first formation as per previous post was Alenga on 6 Dec and the first landfall was east of Darwin on 25 Dec. Now we have the most likely candidate for lowest pressure, as Lua reached 932 mbs on Saturday 17th (17:00z, 06z) March before landfall. (source -- BOM map sequence) This was a category 4 storm by Australian criteria. Landfall was just east of Pardoo WA. The season runs to end of June, I think. So far it seems a bit less than average for frequency, would extrapolate perhaps 11-12/4-6 as the final count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Since I posted that, nothing has happened. Hey, wasn't the North Atlantic season like that, nothing happened in October? Can't remember the details. Maybe there will be one or two "May-November" storms. Or maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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