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December Lake Effect Ongoing Discussion


peteo

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updated NWS AFD "ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF BUFFALO OFF LAKE ERIE AND FROM WATERTOWN NORTH

TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL START TO DRIFT

SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WITH THE MEAN FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY

THERE WILL BE AN BETTER EFFECTIVE LAKE FETCH THEREFORE WE WOULD

EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AND IT DRIFTS

SOUTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FROM BUFFALO

NORTHWARD OFF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND FROM WATERTOWN NORTHWARD IN A

GENERALLY 220-230 DEGREE FLOW REGIME.

THE LAKE ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE

BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE A

PERIOD WHEN THE FULL FETCH OF THE LAKES WILL COME INTO PLAY...

MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK

VERY DEEP LIMITING FAVROABLE DENTDRITIC GROWTH WHICH SHOULD

EFFECTIVELY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT WILL SUGGEST A

GENERALLY 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE LAKE PLUME.":thumbsup::snowman:

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Does anyone have any initial thoughts on LE potential following the Christmas Day storm? It seems like modeling wants to provide a pretty good NW flow in the wake of the storm on the 26th. I am traveling up to the Chautuqua Ridge area on the 26th for a week and was wondering what some of the thoughts were for LE during this time frame? Thanks!!

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Does anyone have any initial thoughts on LE potential following the Christmas Day storm? It seems like modeling wants to provide a pretty good NW flow in the wake of the storm on the 26th. I am traveling up to the Chautuqua Ridge area on the 26th for a week and was wondering what some of the thoughts were for LE during this time frame? Thanks!!

too early to predict anything - potential is there. There will be plenty of snow on ground and likely at least some LES over the course of a week... if you are into following wx models - root hard for the current 00Z EC solution...GFS has a weak wave passing well south of us and then out to sea. Which used to be a typical bias of the model a week or so ahead of many east coast systems. Not sure if its still true given the tweaks it has had over the past year or so. Of course the EC showed a somewhat similar wrapped up solution on and off prior to this past weekends non-event. How'd that work out?

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