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December Lake Effect Ongoing Discussion


peteo

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Hopefully...I'm flipping between setting up my screens for tomorrow's market and this LES band. Exhausting. I have to get up early also and bring kids to school (Phoenix almost never closes...). Then a 1/2 day at work - more day trading and so on and so forth...

Hey Gravestone, welcome from a fellow daytrader. These 9am to 11am work hours are tough, eh?

Heavy stuff just arrived at my house around 7am.

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Hey Gravestone, welcome from a fellow daytrader. These 9am to 11am work hours are tough, eh?

Heavy stuff just arrived at my house around 7am.

Dude! I'm at work now at nine mile - absurd rate of snow. Absurd. I daytrade when I can...mostly swing trading. My chit's been getting hammered last week or so. Too many MoMo positions. Grrrrr.

we picked up an additional 7" at my house last night - total ~18". I think they've got near 10" on ground here already. It's irrelevant - can' t see anything. Drove through it - major suckfest.

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Cool.. I got a good buddy that works at the plant.

I just called NWS Buffalo to give my snowspotter report. 14 inches in 6 hours--7am to 1pm.

Nice! That's the way a band is supposed to look....and it really only has that "perfect structure" when oriented between 230-290....all else is usually a bit less organized.

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IDK...I think BUF might be alluding to something:

BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EXPECTED...AND...NO LAKE EFFECT!

DISRUPT ANY REMNANTS OF LAKE EFFECT.

DRY AND CHILLY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES

...SO NO LAKE EFFECT...

BUT NOTHING MAJOR.

AND NO LAKE EFFECT.

Steve Mclaughlin wrote it.

12z Euro sorta had the potential for some minor LES on X-mas though....---That period is jinxed though, so forget it.

Right on time...every year...

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IDK...I think BUF might be alluding to something:

Steve Mclaughlin wrote it.

12z Euro sorta had the potential for some minor LES on X-mas though....---That period is jinxed though, so forget it.

Right on time...every year...

i think they underestimating that Saturday band lol :whistle:

"THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY

CONTINUING OFF BOTH LAKES...MAINLY ON A WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH LOOKS

TO BACK TO 240-250 BY SAT MORNING AND FURTHER TO 220-230 BY SAT NT.

PARAMETERS WILL BE DECENT AT FIRST...WITH GOOD SNOW GROWTH RATES AND

LITTLE SHEAR...BUT 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO -9C OR SO ON SATURDAY AS

SHEAR INCREASES AS A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH FROM THE OHIO

VALLEY. SO DO EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO LIFT NORTH INTO BUF-IAG AREA ON

SATURDAY BUT TEND TO WEAKEN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SAT NY AND

EVEN INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS FLOW BACKS EVEN FURTHER...BUT THESE THINGS

ARE TOUGH TO SHUT OFF COMPLETELY. WILL THEREFORE INCR POPS TO LIKELY

NE OF LK ERIE FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHC SAT NT AND

SLGT CHC SUNDAY. AS FOR ACCUMS...WITH CONDITIONS SO

MARGINAL...FIGURE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 FOR BUF AREA SAT...BUT WOULD NOT

BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT MORE. WILL MONITOR."

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Nice! That's the way a band is supposed to look....and it really only has that "perfect structure" when oriented between 230-290....all else is usually a bit less organized.

One thing I've noticed over the years...not all "yellow" radar returns are created equal. Generally the same reflectivity was over my place last night and near Oswego today...way more intense snowfall up near the lake & north of here. Not the first time I've observed this. Looks like the fun n games is over for a while...if the various NWP schemes are correct. But I put little more credence in 7 day NWP output as I do any guess on where the stock market will be in a week. And that isn't much.

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Warning Description: Lake Effect Snow Warning

Warning Date: 7:49 PM EST on December 16, 2010

WarningSum:...Lake Effect Snow Warning In Effect Until 9 Am Est Friday...

Warning Message:The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a lake effect

snow warning...which is in effect until 9 am EST Friday. The lake

effect Snow Advisory is no longer in effect.

* Locations...southern half of Lewis County.

* Timing...through 9 am Friday.

* Accumulations...6 to 12 inches tonight.

* Winds...southwest wind 10 to 15 mph

* visibilities...less than one half mile at times.

* Impacts...periods of snow will produce hazardous driving

conditions at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of

weather information for the latest updates. Additional details

can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow

in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will

be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in

Road and visibility conditions.

If you lose power and plan on running a generator...make sure

that the generator is located outdoors and is properly

ventilated. Space heaters should also be properly ventilated and

used only if they are operating properly. Make sure snow does not

block exhausts and fresh air intakes for high efficiency furnaces

and water heaters.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of

weather information for the latest updates. Additional details

can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

WarningDesc:Special Weather Statement

WarningDate:6:56 PM EST on December 16, 2010

WarningSum:...Lake Snows Continue This Evening...

Warning Message:A band of heavy lake effect snow will continue this evening across

the north country. Expect this band of snow to oscillate...with a

slow southward push through the overnight.

Cities affected by this snow at 700 PM include Sackets

Harbor...Southwick beach...Watertown...Barnes Corners and

Copenhagen. The band of snow has settled into northern Oswego

County again this evening...though the heaviest snowfall remains

just north of the County line.

Visibilities will be reduced to just a few hundred feet in this

snow band...and snowfall rates will continue at one to two inches

per hour.

Motorists should allow plenty of extra time to reach their

destinations this evening as driving will be difficult within

this snow band.

Thomas

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I almost hate to say this but that single band is about on our doorstep again....sinking south - i actually have very fine snow starting already w/ no radar signature...KSYR is at or w/in 1" of all time Dec record snowfall...now at 70.3" for season and just under 70" for December - record is 70.X"...

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Lake Effect is so localized that the Syracuse airport, where they record the snowfall amount, can get 10 inches of snow but downtown Syracuse just gets a dusting. So, the location of the airports are very important. Syracuse's airport in located 6 miles north of the city and is very close to the main snow belt region in Oswego County. Buffalo's airport is located just south of Amherst's border, far north of the main snow belt region in the south towns. Rochester's airport is located in Chili, but I'm sure that Webster gets much more snow than Chili. A few years ago there was talks about Syracuse moving its "snowfall measurement location" from the Syracuse Airport to Camillus because Camillus gets almost 30 inches less snow in a "normal" year than the Airport does.

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Hmm.. :whistle:hiresw_p48_048m.gif

2iqg084.jpg

dyorxi.jpg

This model puts out about 1 inch of QPF around south lancaster,Elma and West Seneca. I think its overdooing it a bit but I could still see this as a solid advisory event with 4-6 inches possibly up to 10 inches in spots in those towns between late tonight and Sunday around noon. I think it will be one of those events that are underplayed untill the band starts forming and then BUF puts up advisories as its already snowing at an inch an hour, which later may be needed to be upgraded to a warning depending on the strength of the band. Just an opinion though.

Also think there may be an advisory event for Niagara county (especally the southern half) as the band lifts north Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Could see a nice 3-5 inches IMO. Looks like the immediate BUF area may get screwed again.

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This model puts out about 1 inch of QPF around south lancaster,Elma and West Seneca. I think its overdooing it a bit but I could still see this as a solid advisory event with 4-6 inches possibly up to 10 inches in spots in those towns between late tonight and Sunday around noon. I think it will be one of those events that are underplayed untill the band starts forming and then BUF puts up advisories as its already snowing at an inch an hour, which later may be needed to be upgraded to a warning depending on the strength of the band. Just an opinion though.

Also think there may be an advisory event for Niagara county (especally the southern half) as the band lifts north Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Could see a nice 3-5 inches IMO. Looks like the immediate BUF area may get screwed again.

Nope, LES Advisories posted now. The band looks pretty healthy right now in S Erie county - we'll see how well it hold together as it moves north later this afternoon.

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I read somewhere that Lake Erie is down to 34 degrees. I'm thinking it may still be milder than that in the open areas of the lake..anyone have those SST maps for the lakes? If it is cooling that fast - you WNY people better get all the snow you can while the getting is good.

c'mon,i want more than 3-6 to satisfy meh lol :devilsmiley::gun_bandana:

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