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December Lake Effect Ongoing Discussion

peteo

By peteo,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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peteo

peteo

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NWS saying in their AFD that 850 temps behind the storm won’t be as cold as originally forecasted (-20 to -24). They are saying now they will be more like -16 to -18 which ironically is better for lake effect. They're thinking next week could be another repeat of this week. Look out Randolph!!!!

good stuff.

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

CLE seems about ready to jump out of their pants with this watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

OHZ010>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-110500-

/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0005.101212T1800Z-101216T0100Z/

LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-

PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-

SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...

JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...YOUNGSTOWN...

ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES

REGION THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR

WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE

WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED

ACROSS AN AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO AROUND

YOUNGSTOWN. AFTER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS MONDAY MORNING IT

WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL

TOTALS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE A FOOT OR MORE

THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST

OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE 2 OR MORE FEET OF

SNOWFALL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS

MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS

WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN A RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15

DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU

ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING

WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR

THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE

WARNINGS.

Buffalo's forecast seems unimpressed compared to Cleveland's, which keeps heavy snow right through Wednesday.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

CLE seems about ready to jump out of their pants with this watch:

Buffalo's forecast seems unimpressed compared to Cleveland's, which keeps heavy snow right through Wednesday.

The flow from the surface to h7 looks much more northerly this time around compared to last week's event...which should allow the Lake Huron streamer to set up much farther to the west. I do not see Randolph getting 40"+ this time around! Having said that, I think much of Chautauqua County can still reach warning-criteria snowfall due to possible Georgian Bay connections....similar to what occurred early this week in the Buffalo north towns.

I also think the counties bordering Lake Ontario from Niagara County to Oswego County can do quite well with this setup, and I'm envisioning multiple "fingers" of LES orienting themselves from N-S or NNW-SSE beginning Monday and continuing through the rest of the week. This will be extremely low density snow with SW ratios probably at/above 30:1 which will allow for 1-2"/hr snowfall rates in narrow bands that will look extremely unimpressive on radar. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if radar simply doesn't pick up on a lot of these bands due to their extremely shallow nature.

This is pretty much a classic setup for FLES, too. Schuyler, Tompkins, Tioga, and Chemung Counties will probably do quite well with at least advisory-criteria amounts. The flow may be a bit too northerly for Broome County this time around.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

The flow from the surface to h7 looks much more northerly this time around compared to last week's event...which should allow the Lake Huron streamer to set up much farther to the west. I do not see Randolph getting 40"+ this time around! Having said that, I think much of Chautauqua County can still reach warning-criteria snowfall due to possible Georgian Bay connections....similar to what occurred early this week in the Buffalo north towns.

I also think the counties bordering Lake Ontario from Niagara County to Oswego County can do quite well with this setup, and I'm envisioning multiple "fingers" of LES orienting themselves from N-S or NNW-SSE beginning Monday and continuing through the rest of the week. This will be extremely low density snow with SW ratios probably at/above 30:1 which will allow for 1-2"/hr snowfall rates in narrow bands that will look extremely unimpressive on radar. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if radar simply doesn't pick up on a lot of these bands due to their extremely shallow nature.

This is pretty much a classic setup for FLES, too. Schuyler, Tompkins, Tioga, and Chemung Counties will probably do quite well with at least advisory-criteria amounts. The flow may be a bit too northerly for Broome County this time around.

How do you think Northern Erie will do?
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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

How do you think Northern Erie will do?

Not as well as last week since I don't think you'll benefit from the Georgian Bay connection this time, but with a NNW flow and a legit arctic airmass I think you'll occasionally benefit from the Lake Ontario multibands. Not sure if it'll be enough for an advisory but I wouldn't be surprised if you pick up a couple/few inches each day.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Not as well as last week since I don't think you'll benefit from the Georgian Bay connection this time, but with a NNW flow and a legit arctic airmass I think you'll occasionally benefit from the Lake Ontario multibands. Not sure if it'll be enough for an advisory but I wouldn't be surprised if you pick up a couple/few inches each day.

Thanks Justin. Your thinking this event will pretty much be blind when it comes to radar?
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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
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Thanks Justin. Your thinking this event will pretty much be blind when it comes to radar?

Typically with this type of airmass, the snow ends up falling from clouds that are very shallow in depth...so unless a band is very close to the radar site, the beam will often overshoot the precip. It happened to some degree last week, but I think it will be even more pronounced this coming week since the airmass is projected to be even colder.

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
Posted

This is pretty much a classic setup for FLES, too. Schuyler, Tompkins, Tioga, and Chemung Counties will probably do quite well with at least advisory-criteria amounts. The flow may be a bit too northerly for Broome County this time around.

God, I hope not. :thumbsdown:

That said, this setup may be northerly enough to activate streamer(s) off Seneca Lake, which can be even more condusive to FLES than Cayuga if the flow is right. The hills of eastern Chemung and western Tioga counties could be game for some fairly solid accumulations if Seneca opens up.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

God, I hope not. :thumbsdown:

That said, this setup may be northerly enough to activate streamer(s) off Seneca Lake, which can be even more condusive to FLES than Cayuga if the flow is right. The hills of eastern Chemung and western Tioga counties could be game for some fairly solid accumulations if Seneca opens up.

Always a fun thing to watch =]
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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

The LES, per the 18z NAM and GFS, would suggest a few more degrees of a westerly component starting late Mon. night through Wed relative to previous runs. That said, both models have, again, cooled the 850 temps progged to come in by a good 2-4 degrees vs. the last few runs (particularly last night's runs.

GFS really wants to keep some sort of gyre of UL closed entity meandering to our NE, sending lots of spokes of energy, moisture across the area and lakes in some fashion, right up into X-mas week. Massive block well into GL/extreme NE Canada, with much of our surrounding regions moderating considerably (as is the case when one is the recipient of a closed h500 low overhead.)

Precarious in that any shift of said UL low could move us out of the wintery feel to more of a low 40's/dry type regime.

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
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I just got back from that place near Randolph (4 mi SSW) and WOW! There's at least 30" on the ground. They had pictures from during the storm and there was one that the car looked like a small lump in the snow. They had to have gotten at least four feet there in the main part of the storm. As we went back west towards Kennedy (5 miles away), there was less but still more than here. The east side of Falconer (3.5mi from Kennedy) had about what we have and Jamestown (3mi from E. Falconer) had quite a bit less. As you got closer to my area (4mi from Jamestown), there was more and as you got to my grandma's house (4.3mi from my house), there was more than at my house. It gradients very nicely with the CoCoRaHS and COOP reports. Such a painful gradient, though.

14" was on the ground earlier, but it's compacting.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Only 2-3 inches on the ground in Eggertsville. Patches of grass are clearly evident everywhere around here. At my girlfriends in West Seneca theres a solid 16-20 inches of very heavy compact snow even with the rain itll probally only get it down to 10-12 inches of snowpack which will harden into solid ice like LEK said will make for a nice surface for any new snow to accumulate on.

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Stormtracker81

Stormtracker81

Posted
Posted

The 4am watch message said 6-12 inches they have now upped the amount to 10-16 WOOT!:snowman:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

942 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

NYZ003>006-122245-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.101213T1800Z-101215T1100Z/

MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...

OSWEGO

942 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE

VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE EXACT

LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS

POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NO AA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Local high resolution WRF run out of NWSFO BTV is depicting a gnarly Georgian Bay streamer oscillating back and forth across northern Erie County from ~21z tomorrow through ~06z tomorrow night. Click on "composite reflectivity" and you'll see what I mean:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php

The band weakens considerably as it shifts to the north/east later tomorrow night into Wednesday, but then it appears to get a shot of 'roids as it sets up near ROC Wednesday evening. I've never really used this model for LES before, but it does a pretty good job with upslope in northern New England which is another highly localized phenomenon.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted

Local high resolution WRF run out of NWSFO BTV is depicting a gnarly Georgian Bay streamer oscillating back and forth across northern Erie County from ~21z tomorrow through ~06z tomorrow night. Click on "composite reflectivity" and you'll see what I mean:

http://www.erh.noaa....kmwrf/index.php

The band weakens considerably as it shifts to the north/east later tomorrow night into Wednesday, but then it appears to get a shot of 'roids as it sets up near ROC Wednesday evening. I've never really used this model for LES before, but it does a pretty good job with upslope in northern New England which is another highly localized phenomenon.

That would make me all sorts of dizzy seeing a band of that intensity cut through N Erie County on that trajectory. Making out quite well tonight with the enhancement off Ontario. Steady snow has been ongoing for quite a while, looks like a solid 3-5" will fall in most of my area by morning. Fingers crossed you can get in on some coastal action this weekend.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

That would make me all sorts of dizzy seeing a band of that intensity cut through N Erie County on that trajectory. Making out quite well tonight with the enhancement off Ontario. Steady snow has been ongoing for quite a while, looks like a solid 3-5" will fall in most of my area by morning. Fingers crossed you can get in on some coastal action this weekend.

I'll be up at Jay Peak VT...which nearly guarantees that SNE will get clobbered while I'm underneath a high cirrus OVC up in the North Country :P

Just save some LES for when I'm back in Western NY late next week, please!!

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

4 inches accumulated so far :thumbsup: and LES warning now posted for N.Erie :snowman:

"

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THIS

UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA AND ERIE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED

NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO AND EAST OF NIAGARA FALLS AND ALSO IN THE

BOSTON HILLS.

* TIMING...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IN THE MOST

PERSISTENT BANDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE

VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES."

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