HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well! Funso got all sexy all of a sudden. The JTWC has it at 115 kt now and brings it up to a whopping 140 kt in 24 hr. Fortunately for residents of both Mozambique and Madagascar, the cycle is expected to head essentially S, down the Channel, about equidistant between the two nations. FYI, Mozambique's capital and largest city, Maputo (pop. 1.2 million), is right on the coast. Yikes if this thing hooks right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 In other news: * The JTWC has upgraded the development prospects for 97S to "medium"-- due to a consolidation of convection near the low center. * The 12Z Euro got a whole lot less interesting with 98S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Busy map today. This morning's headlines: * Funso continues snaking down the Mozambique Channel, still at ~115 kt. It's quite small-- fits neatly between the two landmasses without causing too much ruckus on either side. * The BoM has initiated advices on the Tropical Low (97S) N of Exmouth, and the JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert. The BoM expects it to become a severe (Cat-3) cyclone in the next few days, and the longer term track suggests a possible SE hook toward the coast. (However, the Euro shows WSW motion, away from the coast.) We'll have to watch it. * Re: 98S-- the system hovering near the Top End, over Melville Island, ~100 km NNE of Darwin-- the JTWC has upgraded the development probability to medium. The BoM suggests it should move S today and over land by tomorrow-- however, the Euro takes it more SW and keeps it over water longer-- and it's once again showing some significant intensification before a landfall SW of Darwin in ~48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 * The BoM has initiated advices on the Tropical Low (97S) N of Exmouth, and the JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert. The BoM expects it to become a severe (Cat-3) cyclone in the next few days, and the longer term track suggests a possible SE hook toward the coast. (However, the Euro shows WSW motion, away from the coast.) We'll have to watch it. * Re: 98S-- the system hovering near the Top End, over Melville Island, ~100 km NNE of Darwin-- the JTWC has upgraded the development probability to medium. The BoM suggests it should move S today and over land by tomorrow-- however, the Euro takes it more SW and keeps it over water longer-- and it's once again showing some significant intensification before a landfall SW of Darwin in ~48 hr. The next 3-4 days are pretty straightforward for Tropical Low 1. It's going to move recurve into a col between two subtropical highs. However, all of the guidance is showing the col filling and the subtropical highs fusing by Sunday or Monday. The exact timing of that fusion will determine whether TL 1 makes landfall or not. I kept it just offshore south of Exmouth today, but it's low confidence at this point given the shape of the track. 98S might develop or it might not before landfall. Either way, the bigger story will be the massive amounts of rain into Darwin and surrounding areas. The convection is intense right now over the 30-31C water, but there is no real low level organization. I'm still not buying the rapid deepening the Euro is showing, despite the cold tops right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thanks, Adam. The latest BoM advice would seem to support your scenario. The Low has really been trucking W, and it's lost a good amount of longitude-- so at this point, it would have to turn pretty sharply to even affect the Gascoyne: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The BoM track is closer to the Euro. I blended the Euro and UKMet today. The GFS was completely unusable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 The Euro now brings 97S rather close to Exmouth as a very deep cyclone. Interesting. Thoughts, Adam? In other news: Funso is up to 120 kt and the the JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert for 98S, which is over land but might briefly reach 35 kt if it gets back out over the waters SW of Darwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The Euro now brings 97S rather close to Exmouth as a very deep cyclone. Interesting. Thoughts, Adam? My track/intensity forecast this morning is very similar to the Euro, which is a nice middle of the road solution between the UKMet and GFS as well as providing consistency from forecasts the previous two days. I took the storm as a US Cat 1 very close to Exmouth by Sunday morning EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 My track/intensity forecast this morning is very similar to the Euro, which is a nice middle of the road solution between the UKMet and GFS as well as providing consistency from forecasts the previous two days. I took the storm as a US Cat 1 very close to Exmouth by Sunday morning EST. OK, cool-- thanks. The BoM's Technical Bulletin has a hurricane-force cyclone several hundred km NW of the North West Cape and moving slowly SE at 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hot double eyewall from this morning (EST) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wow-- totally hawt! Me likey. Goin' in da porn folder, for sure. We need some action like that. In Oz news... Cyclone Iggy is born-- almost 1,000 km NW of Exmouth. The forecast brings it slowly toward the North West Cape as it strengthens over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 The Euro continues to show Iggy coming very close to the North West Cape-- and, instead of turning it back out to sea, brings it down the coast and ashore further S. The cyclone weakened a bit overnight, but is expected to steadily strengthen over the next few days. The JTWC keeps it well offshore-- never has it coming much further E than around 111E. The BoM brings it much, much closer to the coast-- showing a powerful, 90-kt (10-min) cyclone almost due N of the Cape and still moving ESE at 72 hr. (The map below only shows up to 48 hr.) A Cyclone Watch is up for portions of the Gascoyne and Pilbara. The circulation is large, so effects will be felt well away from the center. Quick side note: Funso has started to weaken-- now down to 100 kt-- as it snakes slowly down the Mozambique Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Interesting tidbit from the JTWC Re: the Iggy threat to the coast: TC 09S IS BEING STEERED GENTLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TIMOR SEA. TC 09S WILL TRACK STEADILY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THAT ANTICYCLONE THROUGH TAU 72 AND STEADILY INTENSIFY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER TAU 72, THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DROPS OFF PRECIPITOUSLY. THE MAJORITY OF AIDS INDICATE AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF-SHORE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHILE OTHERS, INCLUDING EGRR AND SOME ENSEMBLES, TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, RESULTING IN A STRIKE ON THE PILBARA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST WEIGHTS THE SOLUTIONS OF ECMWF AND GFS DUE TO GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR, AND DISCOUNTS THE EASTWARD TRACK OF EGRR DUE TO WEAKER RECENT PERFORMANCE, PARTICULARLY ON TC 08S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The Euro continues to show Iggy coming very close to the North West Cape-- and, instead of turning it back out to sea, brings it down the coast and ashore further S. The cyclone weakened a bit overnight, but is expected to steadily strengthen over the next few days. The JTWC keeps it well offshore-- never has it coming much further E than around 111E. The BoM brings it much, much closer to the coast-- showing a powerful, 90-kt (10-min) cyclone almost due N of the Cape and still moving ESE at 72 hr. (The map below only shows up to 48 hr.) A Cyclone Watch is up for portions of the Gascoyne and Pilbara. The circulation is large, so effects will be felt well away from the center. Quick side note: Funso has started to weaken-- now down to 100 kt-- as it snakes slowly down the Mozambique Channel. You have to love these names. Ours are boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 FYI, just because I've never heard of the Gascoyne before this week, here are the nine regions of WA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I side with the BoM track right now over JTWC, even though I agree with the JTWC reasoning that Josh posted (their track is west of the current Euro track). I used a straight blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMet, which keeps Iggy offshore of the Cape initially, but leaves open the possibility of landfall next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I side with the BoM track right now over JTWC, even though I agree with the JTWC reasoning that Josh posted (their track is west of the current Euro track). I used a straight blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMet, which keeps Iggy offshore of the Cape initially, but leaves open the possibility of landfall next week. Thanks. The BoM seems to really see a threat in this. The 72-hr position and trajectory is interesting-- it would need to turn sharply to miss. I notice the Euro seems to stall the cyclone just off the Cape as it gets very strong-- then seems to shoot it S, for a landfall further down the W coast (not in the Pilbara). P.S. Thanks for posting the regions. I only even found out about the Gascoyne last year-- up to then, I'd always thought the Pilbara included the North West Cape and Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Oh good, satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Oh good, satellite. The center of circulation is on the eastern edge of the convection, though. It needs to get better vertically aligned before it can really intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I've learned long ago not to be fooled by big, public displays of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Iggy is now a Cat-2 cyclone, with winds of 50 kt (10-min). The latest BoM forecast looks quite foreboding-- and here's an interesting tidbit from the Technical Bulletin: There has been a trend in the model guidance towards more southeast movement prior to recurving to the west and this is reflected in the ensemble outputs. Most models have the closest approach to the coast occurring late Sunday or Monday but it may produce gales on the coast as early as Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The JTWC has shifted significantly to the E, now showing a 95-kt cyclone passing very close to the North West Cape around 96 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Shear starting to drop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Used about 2/3 Euro, 1/3 UKMet in the forecast today. Brought a S-S Cat 2 equivalent in just east of Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Used about 2/3 Euro, 1/3 UKMet in the forecast today. Brought a S-S Cat 2 equivalent in just east of Exmouth. Wow-- this sure got interesting. What's your confidence level in a coastal crossing? (I don't know why I'm asking, as it's not like I'm going to chase this one.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The new BoM advice is out, and they've issued a Cyclone Warning for the Gascoyne and W Pilbara coast. It looks like consensus is building for a landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Wow-- this sure got interesting. What's your confidence level in a coastal crossing? (I don't know why I'm asking, as it's not like I'm going to chase this one.) 80% -- I don't know why I'm answering, as it's not like I have any clients there that really care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 80% -- I don't know why I'm answering, as it's not like I have any clients there that really care I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 80% -- I don't know why I'm answering, as it's not like I have any clients there that really care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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