HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 You just don't pay attention in the NIO or the WPAC. This isn't out of the ordinary for them. I forget which storm it was earlier this year (or maybe even last year?), but SATCON had something analyzed as a Cat 5 in the WPAC, JMA had 135 kts (10-min), SAB had T7.0 and JTWC only analyzed it at 110 kts. I swear, YOU, an enthusiast, are better at identifying intensities of TCs from satellite images than their trained Dvorak specialists. Well, in this case, I feel like I could have brought value to the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 It will be interesting to see the BoM's verdict Re: Heidi after postanalysis. Overall, this was a satisfying little cyclone: it had a nice radar signature and the core passed right over two stations, yielding some yummy wind data. What else can ya ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Just after landfall. Nice core. Yeah: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like a solid Cat 1 on the SS scale to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like a solid Cat 1 on the SS scale to me. Agreed. And I think that's what the BoM will settle on after they conduct postanalysis. (Low-end Cat 3 for them is mid-range Cat 1 for us.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Video from a work camp in Port Hedland around 5 am. You can't see much, but the conditions look pretty rough. Highest winds occurred in Port Hedland around 4 am, so this would have been a little after. I do wish the person holding the camera had stepped a little closer to that opening-- could have captured more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I forgot to mention this yesterday because I was busy, but I bet something forms in the Coral Sea by next weekend (28-29th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I forgot to mention this yesterday because I was busy, but I bet something forms in the Coral Sea by next weekend (28-29th) Details, pls. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Details, pls. Thx. MJO shifting from the Timor Sea to the Coral Sea should intensify the monsoon trough on the eastern side. Models aren't excited about genesis yet, but are showing increased monsoon activity. Of course, last time I put out a 10 day forecast for something like this, it busted horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 MJO shifting from the Timor Sea to the Coral Sea should intensify the monsoon trough on the eastern side. Models aren't excited about genesis yet, but are showing increased monsoon activity. Of course, last time I put out a 10 day forecast for something like this, it busted horribly. Gracias. What about prospects in the Northern or Western territory waters in the nearer term? The BoM outlooks are suggesting some possible action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gracias. What about prospects in the Northern or Western territory waters in the nearer term? The BoM outlooks are suggesting some possible action. There's a Kelvin wave moving through later this week, which could set something off in the Timor Sea, but the models aren't too enthused. The favored area should shift from west to east around Monday or so, so the window is small. As the signal shifts from west to east, there is a shot for a Gulf storm Mon-Wed next week, I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 There's a Kelvin wave moving through later this week, which could set something off in the Timor Sea, but the models aren't too enthused. The favored area should shift from west to east around Monday or so, so the window is small. As the signal shifts from west to east, there is a shot for a Gulf storm Mon-Wed next week, I'd imagine OK, cool. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 In other news... The BoM has issued their preliminary Cyclone Heidi report, which simply reflects the operational data. They haven't yet done postanalysis on this one, and I believe that will affect the final verdict Re: landfall intensity: http://www.bom.gov.a...c20120109.shtml The landfall point was very close to Port Hedland-- one of the closest in a very long time. The town was very near the inner core, although I believe-- after reviewing the radar loop-- that the true inner core missed the town by a few kilometers. This was an exceedingly small cyclone-- the most micro of microcanes. (More on that later.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not paying attention to Funso, Josh? Looks like RI is possible, if not likely, over the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro really bombs out Funso by 144 as it is making landfall in Mozambique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Whoa-- look at that. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Check this out. Nitso is our local legend. It's a great site, that will give great insight as to what is going on in Oz. http://www.ozcyclonechasers.com/ Yeah, nitso is awesome-- as is the whole Oz Cyclone Chasers crew. Great guys, and I enjoy corresponding with them about cyclones. They have a nice forum as well. P.S. You missed Heidi. It was a really cute little cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 P.S. All indications are that it's really going to heat up around Oz over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro really bombs out Funso by 144 as it is making landfall in Mozambique. Nice... Josh should think that is so fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I had no idea that South Africa was that close to the Equator. Wondering if anyone we know might chase if the storm got a bit further South than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Mozambique Met (find your own way round) http://www.weather-f...orecasts/latest The good news, as alluded to by the tropical nerds (I am well rounded, interested in all types of weather, even snow not IMBY (3 IMBY events in less than 8 years) if it is absolutely awesome like Boxing Day 2010), things are looking up for Australia. IDW10800Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region Issued at 2:00pm WST on Saturday the 21st of January 2012 Valid until midnight WST Tuesday Existing Cyclones in the Western region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: There are no significant lows in the Western Region. The monsoon trough is expected to become active and one or two significant lows are likely to develop within the trough by Monday. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during next week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected. By late next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago including Christmas Island. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region: Sunday :Very Low Monday :Low Tuesday :Moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western RegionIssued at 2:00pm WST on Sunday the 22nd of January 2012 Valid until midnight WST Wednesday Existing Cyclones in the Western region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: A tropical low lies in the monsoon trough near 12.4S 117.6 E. Activity in the monsoon trough is expected to increase during the week and the tropical low at 12.4S 117.6E or another low within the trough is likely to become significant by mid week. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during the week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected, but there is an elevated risk. By Tuesday next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago including Christmas Island. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region: Monday :Low Tuesday :Moderate Wednesday :High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Sorry I've neglected this thread for a couple of days-- was a bit busy over the weekend! Thanks, boomer, for posting that link to the Mozambique weather site-- much appreciated. Funso continues to kind of meander in the Mozambique Channel. But I think the bigger news this week is going to be in Oz. The pattern is getting more fertile, and the BoM is indicating a high threat of a cyclone in the Western waters and moderate threat in the Northern waters. The Western outlook is unusually explicit-- actually naming the specific regions that seem to be at risk (Kimberley, Pilbara, and Gascoyne-- or essentially the entire N coast of Western Australia). Should be an interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 In other news... A BoM met out of Perth said in an interview this weekend there's a good chance Heidi will be upgraded to Cat 3 in postanalysis. The current report is here-- but keep in mind, it simply reflects operational data. I expect it to change: http://www.bom.gov.a...c20120109.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 The Euro's pretty suggestive, showing 1) a small, intense cyclone coming ashore in the Northern Territory S of Darwin (98S) and 2) a very large, loose cyclone fishing into the open ocean as it misses the Gascoyne just to the N (97S): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The Euro's pretty suggestive, showing 1) a small, intense cyclone coming ashore in the Northern Territory S of Darwin (98S) nd 2) a very large, loose cyclone fishing into the open ocean as it misses the Gascoyne just to the N (97S): The Euro is definitely the westernmost of the guidance for both 97S and 98S. I obviously considered it for my forecast today, but my track is east of both of those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The Euro is definitely the westernmost of the guidance for both 97S and 98S. I obviously considered it for my forecast today, but my track is east of both of those solutions. FWIW, my tracks for both of these look closest to the 0z UKMet. I brought 97S in near or south of Exmouth in 5-6 days and left 98S with a 50/50 chance of developing before moving inland on the Top End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 FWIW, my tracks for both of these look closest to the 0z UKMet. I brought 97S in near or south of Exmouth in 5-6 days and left 98S with a 50/50 chance of developing before moving inland on the Top End. Interesting-- thanks, Adam. Re: 98S's landfall area, you're thinking somewhere along the N coast, E of Darwin-- like in the Van Dieman Gulf, or further E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Interesting-- thanks, Adam. Re: 98S's landfall area, you're thinking somewhere along the N coast, E of Darwin-- like in the Van Dieman Gulf, or further E? Yeah, I brought it ashore in the western part of the Van Dieman Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 PSU, are you a GFS or CMC ensembler? What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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