Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Small but attractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Small but attractive. Wow-- yeah. That does look pretty good. I actually hadn't seen an IR image of it. Doesn't look sheared to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sustained winds at Port Hedland Airport are now very close to gale force, with gusts as high as 44 kt. But the town is still well outside of the cyclone's rather small core: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest advice has the center getting very close to Port Hedland, which will most certainly be in or very near the cyclone's core of strong winds. The advice warns of gusts up to almost 85 kt in and around Port Hedland. Interestingly, the estimated pressure is down another 5 mb-- to 975 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like the center is contracting a tad. I know that's kind of a weenieish thing to say: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like the center is contracting a tad. I know that's kind of a weenieish thing to say: Center was open a few hours ago... I doubt it has strengthened past 70kts 1-min. It's about to LF very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's a cute little thing. The core is nearing Port Hedland and will likely pass very close. Highest winds so far at the Airport: 38 kt (10-min) gusting to 50 kt. JTWC has the intensity up to 55 kt (1-min), but based on surface obs, I'd that's quite conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Adam and Jorge don't appreciate Heidi's hawtness. I care. I just care more about hitting 70 degrees in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I care. I just care more about hitting 70 degrees in two weeks. lolz. That's pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest from Port Hedland: 39 kt (10-min) gusting to 50 kt from the SE; pressure 995 mb and falling: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest advice has the center close to the coast, with Port Hedland inside the ring of damaging winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have to go to a dinner meeting! Will someone post two or three radar stills as the center approaches the coast and makes landfall-- pleez? http://www.bom.gov.a...ts/IDR163.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Port Hedland: 44 kt gusting to 55! Pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm still here. Nice little core it still has: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have to go to a dinner meeting! Will someone post two or three radar stills as the center approaches the coast and makes landfall-- pleez? http://www.bom.gov.a...ts/IDR163.shtml Getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Close to LF in the next hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Close to LF in the next hour or two Even closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Off FB: ABC North West 2000 homes are without power in the Murdoch and Wedgefield areas of Port Hedland. Horizon crews are on standby to go out to restore power after the Red Alert is lifted. You can report power outages on the Horizon fault line: 132351. How is the situation at your place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even closer! Nah, the 128km radar image still says there's a couple of hours before LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nah, the 128km radar image still says there's a couple of hours before LF Nice banding on the radar, even if it is spinning backwards... Wobble watching, I think it'll just miss Pt Hedland to the East, but they should get the full core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTW, Australia would seem to have an economy that would support 3 or 4 Hercules that do tropical recon. (Previous pages Dvorak estimates versus recon measured intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Last Ob had 51 knts sustained gust to 64 knts at Port Hedland airport....the airport is actually 5 miles inland might be a touch worse right on the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hey, guys! I'm at dinner with my business partner but just wanted check in! It looks awesome! Jorge, thanks for posting that radar shot. The wind obs from Port Hedland are impressive, given they're not even in the core yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It looks like it just made landfall farther east than forecasted, but close to Port Hedland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 South Hedland Weather 132km/h gusts recorded at Port Hedland Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Port Hedland's max wind so far: 53 kt gusting to 71. But the pressure's still falling-- currently 981 mb-- so let's see if we get some higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thanks, guys, for posting those images while I was out last night! Looking at the data and the radar imagery, I suspect Heidi was actually a Severe Tropical Cyclone (Cat 3) as it crossed the coast. (Cat 3 = winds of at least 65 kt (10-min).) First off, the radar signature looked good, with a small, tight core, and the center seemed to contract as it neared the coast. Secondly, Port Hedland had 53 kt (10-min) with gusts to 71 kt, with a solid hour and a half of sustained winds over 50 kt. Those data are impressive-- especially given that the station was on the right (weaker) side and several miles inland, and therefore most certainly didn't sample the strongest winds. The lowest pressure (978.2 mb) occurred at 5:00 am-- within an hour of the max wind (4:07 am). While the BoM might have slightly underestimated it, rather stunning to me is the JTWC's assessment of it in Warning No. 5 (2100Z), issued as the center was about to make landfall: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (HEIDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 11 NM NNE OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 06S HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP. AN 1118Z SURFACE OBSERVATION AT THAT STATION REPORTS WINDS OF 44 KNOTS,GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. I don't usually criticize the official agencies, but this is just silly. They assessed an intensity of 45 kt (1-min) based on a reading of 44 kt (10-min) that was taken well inland, relatively far from the center, on the weaker side, more than 2 hr before the highest winds arrived. I'm sorry, but that doesn't even make sense. The actual intensity was probably more like 75 kt (1-min). And what is this about weakening? I'm just at a loss to understand this analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 lolz at JTWC. They are terrible at everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 lolz at JTWC. They are terrible at everything. Well... You've always been a bit harsh Re: them. But that is the most inexplicable operational intensity estimate I've ever seen, from any agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well... You've always been a bit harsh Re: them. But that is the most inexplicable operational intensity estimate I've ever seen, from any agency. You just don't pay attention in the NIO or the WPAC. This isn't out of the ordinary for them. I forget which storm it was earlier this year (or maybe even last year?), but SATCON had something analyzed as a Cat 5 in the WPAC, JMA had 135 kts (10-min), SAB had T7.0 and JTWC only analyzed it at 110 kts. I swear, YOU, an enthusiast, are better at identifying intensities of TCs from satellite images than their trained Dvorak specialists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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