HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hate to bag a colleague, but yep, very lame reporting (if it wasn't Xmas, read TC Tracey... it would have got three pars on P6) . The only excuse was a few days ago the Bom boss of the NT said Cat 3 was a possibility... but that was not reported (doesn't mean the subs didn't hack it). Anyway.. where it goes as a low (and how it re-intensifies in the gulf) is now of more interest. Agreed-- I think the real story might be later in the week, when it gets in the Gulf. The Euro still has it reintensifying, but not a much as previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Grant has slowly intensified to 982 mb/50 kt (10-min)-- a Cat 2 on the Aussie scale (very strong TS on ours). It's moving S on a track that will take if across the Cobourg Peninsula and into the Van Diemen Gulf Monday. This is an area of parks and wilderness-- no towns-- so I don't think any people or settlements are actually threatened. Darwin may get gales as the center passes to the E. I noticed on radar that strong rainbands have been sweeping over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Did you see the latest microwave? If it had stayed over water, it was going to blow up fast. In any case, given the weak steering currents, I'm siding with the slower Euro solution this morning and bringing it ashore on the Cape York as a S-S Cat 1/AUS Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Did you see the latest microwave? If it had stayed over water, it was going to blow up fast. In any case, given the weak steering currents, I'm siding with the slower Euro solution this morning and bringing it ashore on the Cape York as a S-S Cat 1/AUS Cat 3. I didn't see it! Can you post it, please? I can't cuz I'm on my iPad. Too bad. I hate when this happens-- i.e., when a system meanders over water for a week, and then when it finally starts to look hawt, it moves ashore before it can reach its potential. Grrrr. Merry Christmas to my tropical dude bro, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I didn't see it! Can you post it, please? I can't cuz I'm on my iPad. Too bad. I hate when this happens-- i.e., when a system meanders over water for a week, and then when it finally starts to look hawt, it moves ashore before it can reach its potential. Grrrr. Merry Christmas to my tropical dude bro, by the way. And a happy sixth day of Hanukkah to you, homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 And a happy sixth day of Hanukkah to you, homes. Thanks! Yep, it does look like it's developing a little core there. That coil is more an 50% around the center. It'll have some time over the Van Diemen Gulf, so perhaps it can pull together and become a 'cane before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Very religiously put. Merry Xmas etc to all. Seems the models are fighting re this one. General consensus is a Cape crossing into the Coral Sea later this week. I'd back EC and AccessR on this one. Agreed. The Euro is looking less exciting on recent runs-- the cyclone looks less intense in the Gulf. P.S. Adam and I aren't religious dudes-- just trading holiday politeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Latest BoM forecast has this thing making a suicidal plunge into the central Top End as a piece of crap. Blah. What a waste of a good setup. That sounds familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 That sounds familiar Hush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Grant is making landfall E of Point Stuart-- in the middle of nowhere-- as a Cat 1 (i.e., weak TS). The advice warns "coastal residents near the eastern Van Diemen Gulf", but I'm not sure any such residents exist. This area is pretty-much wilderness. As discussed above, the system should drift E over the next couple of days and spill out into the Gulf of Carpentaria, where we may see a more interesting Part 2 to this story. (This having been said, I should note that the Euro has grown less enthused Re: regeneration prospects with each run over the last day or so.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Blah. I took a weak TS into the Cape York on Friday this morning. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Blah. I took a weak TS into the Cape York on Friday this morning. What a waste. Yep. I'm particularly mad at the Euro, cuz o' some o' them earlier, Tracyish runs. What a tease. Grrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 boomer, I think you're going to be lucky to see any kind of really interesting weather out of this. The Euro has really crapped out on this one, and the BoM doesn't show a whole lot of development in the Gulf, either. Other than this feature, the map is barren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Grant's remnant low is just now spilling out into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The BoM takes it straight across and maxes it out as a Cat 1 (weak TS) before landfall on the Cape York Peninsula in a couple of days. boomer, what do you mean by "nasty squiggle"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Blah: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Josh, I meant Jan 7 on this http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011020300!!/ You mean that "pinching" of the isobars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yep... at 10 days you would describe that as pinching? Please explain... it's fairly obvious I am self taught. I'm self taught and I don't know, either. But I wouldn't get too hung up on weird little model-output irregularities like that. Honestly, I don't think it means much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Compared to earlier in its life, The Low Formerly Known as Grant is really trucking along now. It's already almost across the Gulf-- and it hasn't regenerated ino a cyclone. Lame. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Dullness to ring in the New Year. The BoM mentions a low may form around 12.0S 117.0E (way N, near Indonesia) in a couple of days. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 BoM only has 5-20% probs the next 3 days, but Euro sees something unimportant in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 The Northern Territory outlook mentions a weak low forming near Timor and moving S, into the Timor Sea, over the next couple of days. The map remains rather dull! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The Northern Territory outlook mentions a weak low forming near Timor and moving S, into the Timor Sea, over the next couple of days. The map remains rather dull! Going to chase a 45 kt TS in the Pilbara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Going to chase a 45 kt TS in the Pilbara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 5, 2012 Author Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is that where it's heading? Why is it such a lame prognosis at peak season? Is this the new N Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Is that where it's heading? Why is it such a lame prognosis at peak season? Is this the new N Atlantic? I have no idea. It's not like the "MJO" hasn't been favorable for the last month, either. I started forecasting an active Aussie season at the beginning of December because of the large scale environmental factors. Well, I was right on the environment (it's been great for 4 weeks and will continue to be for another 2), but totally wrong on genesis. You got me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 A Tropical Low has formed and is heading toward the Pilbara coast. It's forecast to become a weak (Cat-1) cyclone before coming ashore in 24-36 hr. The JTWC has a Formation Alert and shows a similar track toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Going to chase a 45 kt TS in the Pilbara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ain't you clever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Meh. Hard to get excited about a 45 kt summer squall. The 00Z Euro looks blah as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Meh. Hard to get excited about a 45 kt summer squall. The 00Z Euro looks blah as well. Please. It's not like you get excited about Cat 5s on this side, either. I barely remember you posting about Yasi last year. But when it comes to sleet in Houston, oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.