HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like about $1500 from Prague to Sydney. Just saying. Ha ha ha, what a troublemaker you are. But of course the idea did creep into my mind tonight-- especially because my company is closed down all next week and I could slip away without being missed. But it would still be terribly naughty and piggish after all the NATL and EPAC chasing is did this year. 12z ECMWF saved for verification purposes. Whoa-- look at that. I'm glad you saved it. That's quite a provocative model scenario there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well... The 00Z Euro ain't quite as sexy. It has the low hovering in the general vicinity of Darwin and the Tiwi Islands for a couple of days-- then moving E, brushing the Top End and spilling out into the Gulf of Carpentaria, where it strengthens a bit and then goes poof! Blah. Here's the latest BoM forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 As I was saying yesterday, the Arafura Sea sucks for track forecasting. I'm looking at the Euro Ensemble members and they are split from the Cape York to Broome as a possible location by Wednesday afternoon (EST). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 As I was saying yesterday, the Arafura Sea sucks for track forecasting. I'm looking at the Euro Ensemble members and they are split from the Cape York to Broome as a possible location by Wednesday afternoon (EST). Cape York to Broome... lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Cape York to Broome... lolz. lolz indeed. There is a definitely an eastward skew to the ensemble tracks. The median track still looks like 94S will head around the Tiwis to south of Darwin and that's what I stuck with this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 lolz indeed. There is a definitely an eastward skew to the ensemble tracks. The median track still looks like 94S will head around the Tiwis to south of Darwin and that's what I stuck with this morning. Very interesting. And what kind of intensity are you calling for the near-Darwin landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Very interesting. And what kind of intensity are you calling for the near-Darwin landfall? I mean, if it stays over water, this is an obvious RI case. I went Cat 2 (S-S) in my forecast today, but it could be stronger. Or, if the more overland solutions verify, it won't get past a weak TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I mean, if it stays over water, this is an obvious RI case. I went Cat 2 (S-S) in my forecast today, but it could be stronger. Or, if the more overland solutions verify, it won't get past a weak TS. Wow-- so bottom line: look out if this stays over water. If the cyclone misses S of Darwin, it shouldn't be too big a deal, as there's not much civilization S of the city. All I can really find is Dundee Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 By the way, during all this talk of 94S, Tropical Cyclone Fina formed and fizzled in the Coral Sea. I don't care about it, but just didn't want a cyclone to slip by undocumented in this here thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 By the way, during all this talk of 94S, Tropical Cyclone Fina formed and fizzled in the Coral Sea. I don't care about it, but just didn't want a cyclone to slip by undocumented in this here thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Omg. Troll. Even the crappy cyclones need to be documented in this here thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The latest BoM advice has the low center quite a bit further W. While the models seem to be converging on a SE solution, the low doesn't have to get much further W to skirt around the Tiwi Islands. Either, the system ain't organizing too fast, and the Technical Bulletin says cyclone status remains a good 36-60 hr away. The track is so uncertain that the entire Top End remains under a Cyclone Watch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Worth noting, Wunderground has added Australian radar sites to their website. I haven't seen these posted on here before, but they could be useful if the cyclone passes close to Darwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Worth noting, Wunderground has added Australian radar sites to their website. I haven't seen these posted on here before, but they could be useful if the cyclone passes close to Darwin. Yeah, the Australian radar system is pretty good. And if you want to view the data in their "native" format, you can go here: http://www.bom.gov.a...alia/radar/?ftr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Low shifted direction and moved E last night, and now it's just kind of meandering N of the Top End, where it's expected to become (and remain) a weak cyclone for a few days. (Typically erratic, loopy track for this region.) The Technical Bulletin indicates that the models are agreeing on E motion in the longer term. The Euro is on board with that-- showing the cyclone strengthening in the Gulf of Carpentaria around Day 5 and crossing the Cape York Peninsula (from the W) around Day 6 as a strong cyclone. A Cyclone Warning is in effect for central portions of the Top End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 P.S. The W coast of the Cape York Peninsula is sparsely populated-- just a few small towns and settlements, some of them indigenous-- including Aurukun (pop. ~1K), Weipa (pop. ~2.8K), Mapoon (pop. ~240), Bamaga (pop. ~785), Seisia (pop. ~165), and Thursday Island (pop. ~2.5K). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well... Maybe the models will change again. It was all looking so interesting 36 hr ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The EC and GFS ensemble models indicate the low in the NT will be picked up by the MT... and will cross around Cairns... thoughts? Yeah, it looks to move into the Gulf and develop next week... I'm not as keen on RI in the Gulf, though, as I was up around Darwin. Upper level div won't be as strong and shear looks to be a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Latest BoM forecast has this thing making a suicidal plunge into the central Top End as a piece of crap. Blah. What a waste of a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 It's okay Josh... should it make it's way to the Coral Sea, you may well have something to shout about around Townsville way. But it would be going the wrong way, wouldn't it-- i.e., away from the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzTCchaser Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ah Boomer you love a good clutch don't you lol. Mid levels being picked up by the STR now. The battle is on between NW flow and the almighty ridge at 500. Don't be suprised if the LLCC is relocated under the mids through the max tonight given the depth the circulation is currently attaining and the evident convective bursts to the west of the circulation. A poleward tendency by 36 hours is becoming a likely solution from our point of view. A tightening circulation is in a way insulating the system from the flow over the top and subsequently giving more grunt to the ridging. Deep mean steer indicates that the easterly solution may not verify in the short to medium term, by which time this one may well already be on the coast. Either way it is without a doubt a dynamical challenge and as such extremely enjoyable to observe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Ah Boomer you love a good clutch don't you lol. Mid levels being picked up by the STR now. The battle is on between NW flow and the almighty ridge at 500. Don't be suprised if the LLCC is relocated under the mids through the max tonight given the depth the circulation is currently attaining and the evident convective bursts to the west of the circulation. A poleward tendency by 36 hours is becoming a likely solution from our point of view. A tightening circulation is in a way insulating the system from the flow over the top and subsequently giving more grunt to the ridging. Deep mean steer indicates that the easterly solution may not verify in the short to medium term, by which time this one may well already be on the coast. Either way it is without a doubt a dynamical challenge and as such extremely enjoyable to observe. Ha! Do you feel that way?? I was just thinking the opposite this morning-- how much I dislike the erratic nature of cyclones in this region. I'll take a Yasi-- moving on a long, straight path for days leading up to a big landfall-- over this squiggly nuttiness any day! Good to see you here and thanks for your thoughts Re: the dynamics of this complex situation. It's nice to hear the opinions of knowledgeable locals. This aside, I need to post more on your forum-- which I very much like! I'll be stopping by later for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 After meandering for days, the system is near cyclone intensity, and the BoM now expects it to scoot S, between the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula, across the tiny Van Dieman Gulf, to a landfall as a Cat 2 (strong TS) in the wilderness E of Darwin. Much of the C and Top End is under a Cyclone Warning-- including Darwin. The JTWC has issued a Cyclone Formation Alert-- so expect to see them issuing warnings on this system soon. In the long term... The models are suggesting E movement, toward the Gulf of Carpentaria. Indeed, the Euro shows an intense cyclone hitting the W coast of the Cape York Peninsula around Day 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I capitulated yesterday, but it's worth nothing that about 1/3 of ensemble members are west of the op Euro and go around the Tiwi Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 I capitulated yesterday, but it's worth nothing that about 1/3 of ensemble members are west of the op Euro and go around the Tiwi Islands. Interesting. So they take it pretty-much W from its current position? And then what? Do they circle back around toward Darwin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Interesting. So they take it pretty-much W from its current position? And then what? Do they circle back around toward Darwin? Yeah. The Tracy track is still possible, though obviously not likely. I went with a similar forecast to the BOM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah. The Tracy track is still possible, though obviously not likely. I went with a similar forecast to the BOM this morning. OK, gotcha. I tell ya, the tracks in this region... <shudder> The projected landfall point-- ~70 mi E of Darwin-- looks like parks and wilderness. I zoomed in with Google Maps satellite view and couldn't even find any small settlements-- let alone roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 TC Grant is born. The BoM forecast still takes it essentially S, to the remote countryside W of Darwin, as a Cat 2 (strong TS). Due to proximity to land, lack of time, and a nearby TUTT, the BoM caps the intensity forecast at 55 kt (10-min). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 And the blue ribbon for "Worst, Most Irresponsible Reporting of 2011" goes to The Australian, for this sensationalist schlock piece, outrageously entitled, "Darwin braces for repeat of Cyclone Tracy": http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/darwin-braces-for-repeat-of-cyclone-tracy/story-e6frg8y6-1226229720989 What?? 1. Grant isn't forecast to come anywhere near Darwin. 2. Grant isn't forecast to even become a Severe Tropical Cyclone. Wow. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.