HurricaneJosh Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 The current Euro run brings the cyclone ashore in a remote areas with just wilderness and national parks. However, if it shifts a little further down the coast, some sizable towns (Broome (pop. ~14K) and Derby (pop. ~3K)) could be threatened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The current Euro run brings the cyclone ashore in a remote areas with just wilderness and national parks. However, if it shifts a little further down the coast, some sizable towns (Broome (pop. ~14K) and Derby (pop. ~3K)) could be threatened. It seems like the initial disturbance is currently just offshore on the N coast of the Northern Territory. The ECWMF shows a slow ramp up over the next 72 hours with more robust intensification beyond this period as it continues to drift westward. Some Model Eye Candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The Euro is still showing it. The latest run depicts a small, intense cyclone forming very near Darwin and impacting the coast not too far away. The size/strength of the cyclone and the SE recurve kind of give this a Tracy vibe. (I know, very weenie thing to say.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Following the Joint Typhoon Warning Center web site reminds me of a pet peeve about their site: Their graphics are pretty much the same since the late 1990's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Following the Joint Typhoon Warning Center web site reminds me of a pet peeve about their site: Their graphics are pretty much the same since the late 1990's. And they are terrible at forecasting tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 And they are terrible at forecasting tropical cyclones. Harshyharsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Harshyharsh. Welcome to 2011-12 Australia Season. This is what I do for 4 months out of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Welcome to 2011-12 Australia Season. This is what I do for 4 months out of the year. Are you proud for me-- Re: my valuable donations to the science of analyzing unraveling tropical storms in MX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Are you proud for me-- Re: my valuable donations to the science of analyzing unraveling tropical storms in MX? Don't sell yourself short. You also have valuable donations to the science of understanding unraveling tropical storms in the US, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The Euro is still showing it. The latest run depicts a small, intense cyclone forming very near Darwin and impacting the coast not too far away. The size/strength of the cyclone and the SE recurve kind of give this a Tracy vibe. (I know, very weenie thing to say.) I'm pretty ok with comparisons to Tracy at this point. That's pretty much the type of storm I'm forecasting (if it stays offshore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm pretty ok with comparisons to Tracy at this point. That's pretty much the type of storm I'm forecasting (if it stays offshore) Ooooohhhh, don't stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Anybody have a SST map for the region down under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Anybody have a SST map for the region down under? http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=sst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The BoM has initiated advices on 94S. The long-term forecast-- not pictured here-- has it drifting WSW and strengthening to near Cat 3 (60 kt (10-min)) by 72 hrs. The Technical Bulletin indicates that the longer-term motion could be either WSW or ESE. As is often the case in this basin, the steering currents are not well-defined: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The BoM has initiated advices on 94S. The long-term forecast-- not pictured here-- has it drifting WSW and strengthening to near Cat 3 (60 kt (10-min)) by 72 hrs. The Technical Bulletin indicates that the longer-term motion could be either WSW or ESE. As is often the case in this basin, the steering currents are not well-defined: The 3-5 day track forecast is the big wildcard. The stupid Arafura Sea is so difficult to forecast for track. If it stays over water, this thing is going to blow up over the weekend. It wouldn't shock me if this storm was sitting at 100 kts (1-min) Monday morning, if it is still over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 3-5 day track forecast is the big wildcard. The stupid Arafura Sea is so difficult to forecast for track. If it stays over water, this thing is going to blow up over the weekend. It wouldn't shock me if this storm was sitting at 100 kts (1-min) Monday morning, if it is still over water. Wow. And long-term, what general area of the coast do you feel is most threatened-- or can you even say at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow. And long-term, what general area of the coast do you feel is most threatened-- or can you even say at this point? Nope. The model tracks look like a squished spider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nope. The model tracks look like a squished spider. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 For reference, here's the track of Cyclone Tracy (1974). It's interesting how it carefully skirted around the Tiwi Islands and then rolled into Darwin with perfect aim-- like a bullet. The track was so diabolical it was almost as if it was "on purpose". As I mentioned above, the BoM recently reanalyzed it, and they estimate the landfall intensity at Darwin to be 95 kt (10-min)-- a very strong Cat 3 on our scale: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=sst Thanks. WOW. It certainly won't lack for energy. Is shear and/or winds coming off Oz an issue in a manner similar to South America for storms close to that continent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thanks. WOW. It certainly won't lack for energy. Is shear and/or winds coming off Oz an issue in a manner similar to South America for storms close to that continent? No, not really. This basin is similar to the NIO in spring/fall with the way the monsoon trough is situated wrt land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzTCchaser Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Gidday folks, Some very interesting reading regarding the thoughts on the NT development. Down here in Darwin we have been spending many days trying to make sense of the model madness and attempting to resolve to a solution, and I suppose the balance from our point of view tends to lean towards the W/SW solution in the medium term before the inevitable SWT induced recurvature. I tend to think that given the more westerly initiation point that the GFS scenario seems a little unreasonable. The idea of an inland trough capturing this system from such a position just doesn't seem to compete with what looks to be a reasonable STR to the west cradling it and gradually moving it W/SW given the likelyhood of what looks like becoming a rapidly intensifying midget TC in the next 36 hours. Anyway, I would be very interested to hear more of the views of our American friends in regards to this development. We are currently posting our thoughts and current chase plans at http://www.xweatherlive.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=75&p=5417#p5417 and on our FB page http://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers . Also for anyone interested, we will be live streaming our attempts to intercept this system (pending internet coverage in what could be some remote areas) via Severe Studios on our website www.ozcyclonechasers.com Look forward to the input from the clearly very knowledgeable crew at Americanweather ( brilliant forum by the way ) Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No, not really. This basin is similar to the NIO in spring/fall with the way the monsoon trough is situated wrt land. Thanks. This is my first foray into Aussie TC's, so I'm sure I'll come up with some dumb questions as I read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Gidday folks, Some very interesting reading regarding the thoughts on the NT development. Down here in Darwin we have been spending many days trying to make sense of the model madness and attempting to resolve to a solution, and I suppose the balance from our point of view tends to lean towards the W/SW solution in the medium term before the inevitable SWT induced recurvature. I tend to think that given the more westerly initiation point that the GFS scenario seems a little unreasonable. The idea of an inland trough capturing this system from such a position just doesn't seem to compete with what looks to be a reasonable STR to the west cradling it and gradually moving it W/SW given the likelyhood of what looks like becoming a rapidly intensifying midget TC in the next 36 hours. Anyway, I would be very interested to hear more of the views of our American friends in regards to this development. We are currently posting our thoughts and current chase plans at http://www.xweatherlive.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=75&p=5417#p5417 and on our FB page http://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers . Also for anyone interested, we will be live streaming our attempts to intercept this system (pending internet coverage in what could be some remote areas) via Severe Studios on our website www.ozcyclonechasers.com Look forward to the input from the clearly very knowledgeable crew at Americanweather ( brilliant forum by the way ) Cheers welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 New Euro absolutely crushes Darwin with a Tracy repeat at 0z on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 New Euro absolutely crushes Darwin with a Tracy repeat at 0z on the 28th. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Darwin and cyclones... Although the city is deep in the tropics and is of course famous for being flattened by Cyclone Tracy, it's not terribly cyclone-prone. Part of it has to do with geography: it's really "tucked in" to the Top End, and a cyclone has to approach from a very particular angle to score a direct hit. Since Tracy, no hurricane-strength cyclones have directly hit the city. And before then, the only big events were in 1897, 1917, and 1937. The details Re: these events is sketchy, but apparently each had a great impact on the city. The 1897 cyclone in particular was a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Re: Darwin and cyclones... Although the city is deep in the tropics and is of course famous for being flattened by Cyclone Tracy, it's not terribly cyclone-prone. Part of it has to do with geography: it's really "tucked in" to the Top End, and a cyclone has to approach from a very particular angle to score a direct hit. And to Josh's point, the 12z Euro really is the perfect scenario for a devastating hit to Darwin. The storm recurves southeastward and bombs out just prior to landfall. Take all of this with a grain of salt, since it is a 156hr model forecast. If it stays over water, though, it has a very high chance of bombing out to an intense cyclone and the Euro has been showing this SE recurve scenario for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like about $1500 from Prague to Sydney. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z ECMWF saved for verification purposes. The GFS, on the other hand, shoots the cyclone east into the Coral Sea, so there's a lot of uncertainty with this one. The models have been consistently developing it for the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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