PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 G’day strangers Sorry ive been absent of late, and neglectful in the Aussie TC comp duties. I've just been waiting for this last lil storm to do its thing before announcing any winners. Cough cough, bull!#*$. If my memory serves me correct, this late one wont have a bearing on the results due to dates... Yeh I am a slacker, apologies. I shall make a post soon and get some postal details off of some people sometime soon/this week. Nice lil surprise, well somewhat of a surprise, this one has been. GFS has been progging a late end to the wet during late April/May for the Top End. I wanted to believe it, but was somewhat sceptical. After last weeks storms and widespread 25-100mm, and this weeks low, im impressed! Today definitely saw a turn in the weather here in Darwin. Overcast with loads of mid level junk and instability after a solid line of storms between Darwin and the Tiwi Islands this morning. Some CU managed to precip mid afternoon before mixing out. Will be interesting to watch the sky and sat images tomorrow. I don’t think it will cross anywhere near Darwin if it does manage to spin up, but im hoping it/the low will come close enough to give us some rain before the dry season properly kicks in. 4-5 months of blue sky and fires = depression! I need a kick to get me through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 JTWC are back in the game, seems the diurnal flare up last night grabbed their attention. I cant remember such an up and down forecast for a system in the space of 24 hours... B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CYCLES. A 080715Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED WEAK BANDING, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 080316Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING STRETCHING ALONG THE 8S LATITUDE LINE, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 KNOTS NEAR 129E LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH APPROXIMATELY 15- 20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS THE RECENT MOVEMENT HAS HAD A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS), THE VWS HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO IF THIS MOTION PERSISTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGENERATION OF TC 19S IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IF THE SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT MOTION AND RELAXING SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 G’day strangers Sorry ive been absent of late, and neglectful in the Aussie TC comp duties. I've just been waiting for this last lil storm to do its thing before announcing any winners. Cough cough, bull!#*$. If my memory serves me correct, this late one wont have a bearing on the results due to dates... Yeh I am a slacker, apologies. I shall make a post soon and get some postal details off of some people sometime soon/this week. Well, there you are. I was concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I know it's not a cyclone, but thought you guys might get a kick out of seeing a local phenomenon known as an east coast low spinning up. We can get anywhere from 0ne to six or more of these in a winter, this one looks to be typical as far as strength and size goes. They typically cause a severe rain event, large seas and strong winds, sometimes up to the lower end of a cat 1 tropical storm. They can also cause coastal range snow events if conditions are just right (air temps, uplift, wind direction etc). I've been keeping an eye on this for a few days, they ar emy favourite weather phenomenon down here. They are known for developing very rapidly and being hard to predict with regards intensity and duration: http://www.bom.gov.a...alia/satellite/ Mods, please remove if you feel it's not in the rigth place, but I couldn't find anywhere else for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 There is actually a late season system (TC Kuena) right now in the South Indian basin. It looked fairly impressive this morning, although convection is waning currently. This is an exceptionally rare event, and probably the furthest north TC to ever from in the month of December in the South Indian Ocean. Overall this is only the 4th TC to form in the modern satellite era in the South Indian Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like there's a late season invest (91P) near Papua New Guinea. Models don't show very much development, but it does not appear to be well initialized. Shear and dry air look hostile to the south but aren't too bad locally. http://www.ssd.noaa....storms/91P.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 FWIW, this did get upgraded to TC 21P with a peak intensity of 40-45 kts before quickly getting sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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