aslkahuna Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Irina about to become a remnant low. very little convection near the center everything else has sheared off to the SE. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2012 Author Share Posted March 6, 2012 Irina about to become a remnant low. very little convection near the center everything else has sheared off to the SE. Steve Good. That piece o' crap needs to die already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 The models-- including the Euro-- are starting to suggest a Pilbara cyclone in the long range. My Oz chaser friends seem very confident Re: a significant impact-- so much so that they're already in initial planning stages! Oh... Also, the BoM is tracking a Tropical Low way at the W end of their area of responsibility. It should move into La Reunion's turf in a couple of days, where it could become a significant cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 ^Less impressive on 12Z Euro. But glass half full optimistic is my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 ^Less impressive on 12Z Euro. But glass half full optimistic is my motto. Just put that in your sig-- then you won't need to type it every post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Some yumminess from the BoM's three-day Outlook for the Western region: A low is developing south southwest of Bali in the vicinity of 13S 113E. This low is expected to gradually become better defined over the next three days. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone as early as Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during next week. This low is expected to be located off the Pilbara coast for much of next week with the risk of a coastal impact increasing during the week. Pilbara and Kimberley coastal communities are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts over the coming week. As I mentioned above, my Oz chaser-dude friends are wet with anticipation Re: this system and are telling me I should fly to Oz immediately for it. (They're extremely hospitable. ) Will be interesting to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Some yumminess from the BoM's three-day Outlook for the Western region: A low is developing south southwest of Bali in the vicinity of 13S 113E. This low is expected to gradually become better defined over the next three days. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone as early as Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during next week. This low is expected to be located off the Pilbara coast for much of next week with the risk of a coastal impact increasing during the week. Pilbara and Kimberley coastal communities are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts over the coming week. As I mentioned above, my Oz chaser-dude friends are wet with anticipation Re: this system and are telling me I should fly to Oz immediately for it. (They're extremely hospitable. ) Will be interesting to watch it unfold. They are way more excited than I am at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 11, 2012 Author Share Posted March 11, 2012 So, things are heating up: Invest 95S, in the Indian Ocean well N of the Pilbara, is expected to spin up into a cyclone in the next few days, and the BoM warns that the threat to the Pilbara increases later in the week. The Euro shows something a very-large something affecting the coast, although I'm not sure I'd call it the sexiest or most-tropical-looking thing I've ever seen. Another system, 96P, is currently in the Arafura Sea, N of the Top End. The BoM suggests it will move SW and could strengthen into a cyclone before turning S toward the Kimberley coast. The Euro is not enthused about this system. Stuff to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 All the hurricanes in this thread are upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 The BoM is now issuing advices on a Tropical Low (96P) in the Timor Sea, and the forecast track suggests a substantial cyclone will come ashore somewhere S of Darwin in a few days. A large portion of the Kimberley and Northern Territory coasts-- including metro Darwin-- are under a Cyclone Watch. The advice partially reads: Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level. In other news... Another low (95S) about 320 km NW of Karratha looks to threaten the Pilbara late in the week, with the cyclone risk declared "High" by the BoM. The Euro still presents it rather strangely-- not sure what to make of it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 I feel bad for the Oz Cyclone Chasers on FB. I hope they finally get a good chaseable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Formation Alert for disturbance near 12.1S 128.0E issued by JTWC. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 12, 2012 Author Share Posted March 12, 2012 I feel bad for the Oz Cyclone Chasers on FB. I hope they finally get a good chaseable storm. Yeah, it's been a crappy season for them. But we're still in their "September", so there's time. Formation Alert for disturbance near 12.1S 128.0E issued by JTWC. Steve The JTWC seems to be a little more conservative about the system near the Top End, as the BoM is issuing advices on it and the JTWC isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 The BoM is tracking two Tropical Lows-- 96P (near the Top End) and 95S (off the Pilbara). The former is the more immediate threat-- however, it is the latter that has the potential to cause mischief late in the week, with the BoM's forecast showing an 80-kt cyclone closing in on the coast at 72 hr. Adam will continue saying it's crap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 Cyclone Lua is born. The BoM has it looping offshore for a couple of days, then heading ESE toward the coast and slowly strengthening. The extended forecast (not shown here) has the cyclone nearing the E Pilbara with winds of 75 kt (10 min) at 72 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 The BoM and JTWC disagree pretty greatly Re: the landfall intensity of Lua-- with BoM suggesting at least 80 kt (10-min) and the JTWC saying 60 kt (1-min). Adjusting for different averaging periods, that's a spread of ~30 kt! Will be interesting to see who's closer to "right" in the end. Trackwise, they're in almost perfect agreement Re: a landfall a little NE of Port Hedland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 13, 2012 Author Share Posted March 13, 2012 The JTWC has gotten more bullish, now showing an 80-kt 'cane coming ashore very near Port Hedland at a rapid clip. Interestin': Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Latest BoM forecast. The 60- and 72-hr forecasts (not shown here) show a solid 'cane passing close to Port Hedland in a few days. A Cyclone Watch is up for a large portion of the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 I like pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Thermo > Shear for this one I guess. I'm shocked it's trying to close off an eyewall in such a highly sheared environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yeah, it does seem to be over-performing. The BoM is really bullish, now bringing it up to 90 kt (10-min) before landfall-- which is a Cat 3 on our scale. The JTWC is more conservative, calling for 90 kt (1-min). A healthy cyclone either way. Regarding track, the models are well-clustered and both agencies agree on a landfall in the barren wilderness E of Port Hedland. My chaser-dude friends are going to need to ride this out in their vehicle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Structurally, it's really nothing to write home about-- at least not yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Structurally, it's really nothing to write home about-- at least not yet: There was an AMSU pass from around 18z today that looked a bit better. Or maybe it was the crappy resolution. Not sure. Either way, it's still maintaining central convection a lot better than I expected earlier in the week looking at the shear forecasts. The last three runs of the Euro (13/12z, 14/00z, 14/12z) have all shown a much stronger deepening trend than any other guidance previously. It could be that the Euro is doing its normal overdeepening crap we've seen over and over again, but it's at least made me nudge my forecast upwards. I'm still thinking Cat 1 at landfall, but I'm closer to the higher end of Cat 1 than 65 kts like I thought Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 There was an AMSU pass from around 18z today that looked a bit better. I guess it was 1413z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I guess it was 1413z Yeah, that earlier image does look a bit better. I guess it's fluctuating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'm still not terribly impressed with Lua. The latest MW, IR, and visible images all show a lopsided system with most of the action N of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'm on the aggressive side with this one. The upper level ridge is displaced ever so slightly to the southeast, which is where the Lua will end up. The ridging should only expand with time, and the poleward outflow jet should be brilliant through landfall. Even now, I see Lua doing fairly well. She appears to be developing a more established CDO, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent eye within the next 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'm on the aggressive side with this one. The upper level ridge is displaced ever so slightly to the southeast, which is where the Lua will end up. The ridging should only expand with time, and the poleward outflow jet should be brilliant through landfall. Even now, I see Lua doing fairly well. She appears to be developing a more established CDO, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent eye within the next 6-12 hours. Well, you're in good company then, because the BoM is mighty bullish on it! I'm very curious to see what happens with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 The system is still struggling-- and I'm not terribly impressed by the latest imagery, which still shows an asymmetric system. The agencies are in good agreement Re: current intensity as a low-end Cat 1 (on our scale): BoM has it at 60 kt (10-min) and the JTWC has it at 70 kt (1-min). The BoM has backed off the intensity forecast a little-- they no longer make it a Cat 4 AUS before landfall. The JTWC brings it ashore with winds of 90 kt (1-min)-- a little lower than the last warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It looks pretty decent compared to earlier. The expanding outflow in the SE quad shows that shear is decreasing. It looks like a smallish system, but the outflow is pretty good in almost all quads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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