HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Been too busy to pay much attention to this, but it looks to me like the eye is clearing in the last frame. ERC almost complete? That loop's a bit old. This more-recent image seems to suggest the eye is becoming a bit murky. This having been said, it should come ashore as a strong system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That loop's a bit old. This more-recent image seems to suggest the eye is becoming a bit murky. This having been said, it should come ashore as a strong system: Yeah, the eye IR temp is down to -35.7C. When I looked earlier, it was up around -12 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, the eye IR temp is down to -35.7C. When I looked earlier, it was up around -12 or so. Actually, looking at the text file, when it was at its strongest last night, the eye was +8-+9C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Actually, looking at the text file, when it was at its strongest last night, the eye was +8-+9C So is this warming a sign that it's weakening? If yes, it would be a score for Meteo France, who's been saying all along that it would weaken as it approached the coast. EDIT: I meant cooling-- not warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So is this warming a sign that it's weakening? If yes, it would be a score for Meteo France, who's been saying all along that it would weaken as it approached the coast. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yep. Oops, I meant cooling-- but you know what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ob FMMT 131800Z 28033KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 24/22 Q0990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 The pressure only fell 1 mb between 8 and 9 pm, which seems a rather slow drop with a cyclone approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 The new Meteo France advisory is out. The current intensity is 932 mb/100 kt (10-min)-- a low-end Cat 4 on our scale. They say the inner eyewall is contracting and the RMW is 22 km (~12 nmi). The advice reads: THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ANDOVORANTO AND VATOMANDRY REGIONS. GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 120 KM/H IN AN AREA FROM MANANJARY IN THE SOUTH TO SAINTE-MATIE ISLAND IN THE NORTH, SHOULD EXCEED 150 KM/H FROM NOSYVARIKA IN THE SOUTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD EXCEED 200 KM/H FROM MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH UP TO 90 KM IN THE NORTH OF ANDOVORANTO. 150 kph is ~80 kt, so Toamasina should get a pretty good swipe. The gusts of over 200 kph (~110 kt) will occur mostly S (left) of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ob FMMT 131900Z 30039G58KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 ///// Q0988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 FMMT now 37 kt with a gust to 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Closing in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ob FMMT 132100Z 34045G62KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 ///// Q0985 Almost gusting to hurricane strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks like it's just about to make landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks like it's just about to make landfall... Pressure has started rising and winds falling... ob FMMT 132200Z 36033G58KT 4000 RA FEW007 BKN017 OVC033 ///// Q0986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hmmm. So it must have made landfall. Toamasina got off pretty easy. Looks like the max sustained wind was only 45 kt (10-min) and the max gust (62 kt) not even hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks like it's definitely made landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Pressure's up to 988 mb and the winds are only gusting to 35 kt now at Toamasina. The cyclone's core missed the city to the S and-- although you can't see it to well on IR imagery-- the center has most certainly moved ashore by this point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Winds gusting to gale force in the capital, Antananarivo. The center should pass pretty close by in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 The new JTWC warning shows the center a little inland with winds of 95 kt-- suggesting the intensity was probably ~100 kt (1-min) or maybe a little more at landfall (22Z). Judging by the JTWC's initial position (19.1S 48.7E) and heading, it looks like it came ashore less than 10 mi S of Andovoranto and maybe 70 mi S of Toamasina-- thus explaining the crappy winds there. It now looks like it's going to pass very close to the capital. At last report, Ivato International Airport was reporting gusts to 49 kt and 996 mb-- but that was almost an hour ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 The center must be passing well S of the capital. Winds at Ivato International Airport are out of the W now, with highest gusts of only 40 kt-- and the pressure's only fallen to 993 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the center has apparently also passed S of Antananarivo: the pressure's now rising and the wind is blowing from the NW. Like Toamasina, it seems like the capital got off easy. Max gusts didn't even reach 50 kt. I'm a bit surprised, because it looked like the center was going to pass very close or over the city. Interestingly, the wind lowered a little at around the time of the lowest pressure (993 mb at 7:30 am), but I can't imagine they scraped the eye. The pressure wasn't low enough and the winds weren't strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 None of the 06Z SYNOP stations in Madagascar are reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 None of the 06Z SYNOP stations in Madagascar are reporting. Yeah, the reporting was erratic all night-- it was on and off. I got a pretty steady data feed from Antananarivo's airport (FMMI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 So the center has apparently also passed S of Antananarivo: the pressure's now rising and the wind is blowing from the NW. Like Toamasina, it seems like the capital got off easy. Max gusts didn't even reach 50 kt. I'm a bit surprised, because it looked like the center was going to pass very close or over the city. Interestingly, the wind lowered a little at around the time of the lowest pressure (993 mb at 7:30 am), but I can't imagine they scraped the eye. The pressure wasn't low enough and the winds weren't strong enough. Reviewing the data this morning, it looks like the max winds at Ivato Airport were 35 kt gusting to 60, occurring sometime between 4:30 and 10 am. (This reading was at the end of several METARs and was labeled TEMPO-- not sure what that means.) The lowest pressure was 993 mb at 7:30 am. At this time, the wind was blowing from the W, so the center was passing to the S. The Meteo France track suggests the center passed very close to the city-- within ~15 mi of the airport-- but by that point it had lost most of its punch and was barely a tropical storm. (The center reached its point of closest approach at 0430Z; at 0600Z Meteo France put the intensity at 30 kt (10-min).) It looks like the JTWC didn't correctly forecast the rapid decay of the cyclone, as they predicted a much more vigorous system impacting the city. Meteo France put the landfall at 2200Z near Andovoranto, and they put the 00Z position inland with winds of 90 kt (10-min). So it looks like they and the JTWC agree on a landfall intensity around SS Cat 3. It definitely did not look like a 4, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Giovanna has pilled out into the Mozambique Channel and is reintensifying. Both the JTWC and Meteo France bring it back up to a hurricane, but have it making a sharp turn before hitting Mozambique. In other news... Cyclone 13 is strengthening and heading in the general direction of the Mascarenes (La Reunion, Mauritius, etc.)-- however, the JTWC and Meteo France disagree starkly Re: the eventual threat. At 120 hr, the JTWC shows a strong hurricane heading in the general direction of La Reunion and Mauritius, whereas Meteo France never makes it more than a depression and has it as a weakening remnant low by that time. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Giovanna has pilled out into the Mozambique Channel and is reintensifying. Both the JTWC and Meteo France bring it back up to a hurricane, but have it making a sharp turn before hitting Mozambique. In other news... Cyclone 13 is strengthening and heading in the general direction of the Mascarenes (La Reunion, Mauritius, etc.)-- however, the JTWC and Meteo France disagree starkly Re: the eventual threat. At 120 hr, the JTWC shows a strong hurricane heading in the general direction of La Reunion and Mauritius, whereas Meteo France never makes it more than a depression and has it as a weakening remnant low by that time. Interesting. Its got a ways to go... Madagascar did a number to the central core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Its got a ways to go... Madagascar did a number to the central core. lolz, it looks like crap-- like a block of Parmesan that got rubbed over a grater. As tmagan said, Madagascar is like the SIO's very own Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lolz, it looks like crap-- like a block of Parmesan that got rubbed over a grater. As tmagan said, Madagascar is like the SIO's very own Hispaniola. Or Luzon and Taiwan. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Or Luzon and Taiwan. Steve Yep. P.S. I like the new avatar. It's very "tropical dude". Where's it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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