am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wtf?? It's up to 110 kt already? I don't understand how that happened so fast. JTWC gave it T6.0 at 18z. SSD has T5.5. Did you see the IR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 JTWC gave it T6.0 at 18z. SSD has T5.5. Did you see the IR? Yeah, it looks pretty awesome. That was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The CIMISS ADT "Raw T#" is an astounding T 6.8. However the final T# is 4.7. That has to be far too low, but it's still in question whethe the current pinhole eye is "real." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is the one area of the world I can't find a satellite loop for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is the one area of the world I can't find a satellite loop for. CIMSS has a variety of floaters for it. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's the latest from Meteo France. They have Giovanna as an Intense Tropical Cyclone now, which means winds of 90-114 kt (10-min). They show some weakening before landfall near Toamasina in ~72 hr. I misread the JTWC forecast earlier. They don't bring it ashore at 110 kt-- rather they weaken it a bit (down to 95 kt) before landfall near Toamasina in ~72 hr. Given this, the two agencies agree quite well Re: track and intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The CIMISS ADT "Raw T#" is an astounding T 6.8. However the final T# is 4.7. That has to be far too low, but it's still in question whethe the current pinhole eye is "real." Apparently there is a constraint of 1/7/6 1.7/ 6 hours on strengthening. I was of the impression the ADT mainly compares warmest eye pixel to coldest pixel in eyewall when an eye is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was of the impression the ADT mainly compares warmest eye pixel to coldest pixel in eyewall when an eye is present. As does the regular Dvorak technique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Very impressive... its probably going to peak in the next 12-24 hours around high end cat 4 low end cat 5 before a slow decline due to EWRC's ect. The most recent microwave already shows evidence a of a dry moat forming around the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hawt. This will be fun to track for a the next few days. P.S. Awesome new avatar, Adam. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Awesome! Adam didn't you call for this a while ago? My memory is hazy from all the shift work, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Awesome! Adam didn't you call for this a while ago? My memory is hazy from all the shift work, lol. Nope, not unless you count the 7-8-1 transition I called for back in mid-Jan. I don't usually forecast for the SWIO unless something cool happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nope, not unless you count the 7-8-1 transition I called for back in mid-Jan. I don't usually forecast for the SWIO unless something cool happens. I must be losing it. Yes, I am very happy with the MJO ideas / forecasts. Things went exceptionally well in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The path of Giovanna from JTWC takes it near/over most of Madagascar's population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 The JTWC and Meteo France are in pretty-good agreement this morning. Meteo France has it at 95 kt (10-min) and they expect some fluctuations before landfall a little S of Toamasina after 60 hr with winds around 95 kt. The JTWC has it a little stronger currently-- 120 kt (1-min)-- and brings it ashore very near Toamasina a little before 72 hr. The 72-hr position is just inland with winds of 95 kt, suggesting a major at landfall (100+ kt). Some porn from a few hours ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Some recent MW shots show an intense inner eyewall about to go poof! Meteo France shows some short-term weakening, which makes sense: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 The latest JTWC indicates an ERC has completed. The pinhole eye from yesterday has been replaced by a much larger eye, and the intensity is reduced to 105 kt. However, they call for the cyclone to reintensify, and they bring it ashore at a whopping 115 kt very near Toamasina Monday night. Yikes. Down the road, they call for the cyclone to reintensify in the Mozambique Channel and eventually threaten Mozambique as a hurricane. By the way, the discussion text for this JTWC warning is unusually detailed and interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The latest JTWC indicates an ERC has completed. The pinhole eye from yesterday has been replaced by a much larger eye, and the intensity is reduced to 105 kt. However, they call for the cyclone to reintensify, and they bring it ashore at a whopping 115 kt very near Toamasina Monday night. Yikes. Down the road, they call for the cyclone to reintensify in the Mozambique Channel and eventually threaten Mozambique as a hurricane. By the way, the discussion text for this JTWC warning is unusually detailed and interesting: Rumor has it that its very cold in the Czech Republic. About a 1,000 Euros and a connection in Paris... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 By the way, here's a little info on Toamasina (pop. 179K), which is Madagascar's second-largest city and main seaport: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toamasina Much of the city is squeezed onto a sandy peninsula jutting into the ocean and forming part of the harbor. Seems rather vulnerable to me. By the way, the city is also called Tamatave-- sand that's what Meteo France calls it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Rumor has it that its very cold in the Czech Republic. About a 1,000 Euros and a connection in Paris... The thought crossed my mind, but it's very complicated to get there from here. I'm cool with 1,000 EUR-- actually, that would be cheap for this sort of journey-- but three connections? Ugh. (Plus, all my equipment is in the USA.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Posted on another forum-- and illustrating exactly what the JTWC discuss in their forecast: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUS PINHOLE-SIZED EYE HAS NOW BECOME A LARGER, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WIDE EYE. BD ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW FOUND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EYE. COMPARISON OF THE 110347Z TRMM 85 GHZ TO THE 111119Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THAT TC 12S HAS UNDERGONE, AND COMPLETED, AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE SMALLER EYEWALL CONVECTION AND THE AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONTAINED TO THAT OUTER RING OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS NOW THE NEW, LARGER, EYEWALL. IT SEEMS THAT SHORTLY AFTER TC GIOVANNA UNDERWENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE OUTER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN TO FORM. THE ERC TOOK APPROXIMATELY 10 HOURS FROM ANALYSIS OF PAST MICROWAVE IMAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Such quick and smooth ERCs are usually a good sign that a cyclone will undergo a second round of reintensification if there's time and conditions are favorable...and both criteria will probably be met before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Latest from Meteo France. They show it restrengthening to an Intense Tropical Cyclone (90-114 kt (10-min)) and then weakening again back to Tropical Cyclone status (64-89 kt (10-min)) before landfall near Toamasina late Monday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Not looking quite as awesome as earlier. Some of the other imagery suggests dry air encroaching from the W: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Meteo France's latest advisory puts the intensity at 80 kt (10-min). Their forecast calls for some short-term strengthening, then weakening down to what we'd call a strong Cat 1 prior to landfall: 12H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Countless hours spent watching nature documentaries filmed in Madagascar and never once did they mention it got hurricanes. National Geographic and the Discovery Channel really let me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Countless hours spent watching nature documentaries filmed in Madagascar and never once did they mention it got hurricanes. National Geographic and the Discovery Channel really let me down. Yeah, they do-- and sometimes very intense ones. It's such a random place-- I don't know what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yeah, they do-- and sometimes very intense ones. It's such a random place-- I don't know what to make of it. Indian Ocean's version of Hispaniola and Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Indian Ocean's version of Hispaniola and Taiwan. Yeah, kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Latest JTWC package indicates some weakening has occurred-- winds are down to 100 kt-- but the forecast calls for some restrengthening, followed by landfall near Toamasina late Monday night with winds of 110 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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