am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anything interesting brewing in the medium and long ranges? Nothing obvious. Large scale forcing remains favorable, but all that has done this year is keep the monsoon trough active and stable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Just under 36 hours w/o a new post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Cyclone Jasmine has formed from a well-defined low in the Coral Sea. The system actually originated in the Gulf of Carpentaria and tracked E across Cape York Peninsula before spilling out into the Coral Sea. It will continue to move away from Queensland. "Jasmine" is a pretty name for cheap fish food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Jasmine has been upgraded to a Cat 2 and the BoM's latest forecast brings it up to Cat 3 as it approaches Vanuatu. So it looks like the folks in Fiji are going to have their hand full with this one in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 The BoM and JTWC agree Re: track-- bringing Jasmine generally E and then curving it a tad S of Port Vila-- but they're of different opinions Re: intensity: the BoM brings it up to 70 kt (10-min) whereas the JTWC maxes is out at 65 kt (1-min): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Kind of interesting: Cyclone Yasi was in the same general area almost exactly a year ago and was moving in the exact opposite direction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 What is the deal with prolonged to the East motion Equatorward of 20º? I don't know my Australian area weather, apparently, that just seems wrong.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Jasmine continues E. Both the BoM and JTWC are in good agreement Re: a Cat 3 (AUS)/Cat 1 (USA) curving ESE and passing a little S of Port Vila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Jasmine is up to hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Jasmine is up to hurricane strength. JTWC has Jasmine up to Cat 3 (US). It's probably somewhere between 90-100 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 JTWC has Jasmine up to Cat 3 (US). It's probably somewhere between 90-100 kts. Oh. Hey. I also notice the forecast now brings it up to 110 kt-- way more bullish than previous forecasts. They have it threading ESE, between the islands. The BoM is no longer issuing advices, as the cyclone has moved E of 160E. Now it's in Fiji's region of responsibility-- and I'm too lazy to check their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Boring fish, but hard to ignore this hawt MW shot. Fortunately the cyclone-- currently estimated at ~100 kt-- should pass about equidistant between Vanuatu and New Caledonia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2012 Author Share Posted February 7, 2012 Jasmine is up to 110 kt, as per the JTWC, and currently located about halfway between Port Vila and Noumea. The latest forecast now brings it up to Cat 4 (USA) within the next 12 hr, followed by steady weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Jasmine is up to 110 kt, as per the JTWC, and currently located about halfway between Port Vila and Noumea. The latest forecast now brings it up to Cat 4 (USA) within the next 12 hr, followed by steady weakening. Yep. Jasmine is up to a fake Cat 4 and this should be near peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jasmine is nearly annular and convection is weakening. The storm is down to 100 kts and will continue weakening through the weekend. It's not a threat to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jasmine is nearly annular and convection is weakening. The storm is down to 100 kts and will continue weakening through the weekend. It's not a threat to land. Pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pics. Aren't we pushy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Aren't we pushy Yeah, it does look annular. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Anyone remember Kyle when its cloud tops weren't cold at all but it still had an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like Giovanna will bisect Madagascar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like Giovanna will bisect Madagascar. Thanks for pointing that out-- I hadn't been paying attention to it! The JTWC forecast brings it ashore very near Madagascar's main seaport, Toamasina (pop. 179K), with winds of 100 kt. Definitely something to track over the next few days. In other news, Jasmine is slowly unraveling in the SPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I... I... I'm speechless. I actually agree with the JTWC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 I... I... I'm speechless. I actually agree with the JTWC forecast. You are so bad. P.S. They botched Heidi badly, but they did well with Iggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jasmine still continues to impress... I wouldn't be surprised if the JWTC's forecasts busts on the low side given the fact the storm will stop gaining latitude and should still be under 25-26 SSTs over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jasmine still continues to impress... I wouldn't be surprised if the JWTC's forecasts busts on the low side given the fact the storm will stop gaining latitude and should still be under 25-26 SSTs over the next few days. It's a cool system-- small but annular. A microannular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Back to Giovanna... As per the latest JTWC warning, the cyclone is now a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt. The new forecast is even more ominous, bringing a 110-kt cyclone almost right over Madagascar's main seaport, Toamasina, in ~48 hr. EDIT: I misread the forecast. It brings the cyclone ashore a bit weaker (95 kt) in ~72 hr. Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Meteo France is much less bullish with Giovanna, showing the cyclone peaking early and then weakening a bit before coming ashore as a "tropical cyclone", which means winds ranging from 64-89 kt (10-min): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Back to Giovanna... As per the latest JTWC warning, the cyclone is now a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt. The new forecast is even more ominous, bringing a 110-kt cyclone almost right over Madagascar's main seaport, Toamasina, in ~48 hr. It's up to 110 now and bombing out. Has a chance to be Cat 5 by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 3 out the 4 recorded majors to have hit near Toamasina were in 1994 (majors after converting them to 1-min SS scale, all 4 were 3s)...last one was Ivan in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's up to 110 now and bombing out. Has a chance to be Cat 5 by tomorrow. Wtf?? It's up to 110 kt already? I don't understand how that happened so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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