Ed Lizard Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 80% -- I don't know why I'm answering, as it's not like I have any clients there that really care I'm not paying anybody anything, but if our intrepid cyclone hunter flies to Australia and gets his first Southern hemisphere intercept, you will have a place of gratitude in our hearts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Ha ha ha, I wish! This setup is way too much of a gamble to fly to another continent for. Yasi last year was a perfect example of a good setup for a long-distance chase. The latest JTWC forecast still keeps the cyclone offshore-- showing it recurving just a hair W of the Cape with winds of 100 kt (1-min) in ~96 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The situation is looking increasingly serious. The new BoM advice has the cyclone reaching Cat 4 within 48 hr (that's Cat 3 on our scale). Furthermore, the 72-hr position (not depicted below), has the cyclone moving SSW on a beeline for Exmouth Gulf: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 As the trough to it's south bypasses the cyclone, there's a good chance that the steering currents will collapse, that would be a nightmare scenario for the towns in the warning area. Also, it looks like shear will be very favorable for intensification, though if the cyclone wanders just off the coast for more than a day, that would weaken it before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This is some sick deep convection Looks like it is halfway to an eyewall, too. This will almost certainly go RI if shear ever drops below 10 kts. Which it looks like it will before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Adam, you still feeling confident Re: a landfall E of Exmouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 The BoM seems to really think this is going to hit-- and hit strong. The BoM's latest 72-hr forecast (not shown here) has the cyclone just onshore on the E coast of the Exmouth Gulf with winds of 90 kt (10-min)-- a solid Cat 3 on our scale: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Adam, you still feeling confident Re: a landfall E of Exmouth? 12z Euro and UKMet bring it SWward right across Exmouth. I still think it is more likely than not, but my confidence has waned somewhat with the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 12z Euro and UKMet bring it SWward right across Exmouth. I still think it is more likely than not, but my confidence has waned somewhat with the 12z guidance. One thing I notice is that it's been moving more S than E today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm sure residents in the Gascoyne are thinking back to Cyclone Vance of 1999. The powerful cyclone came S, right down Exmouth Gulf, to make landfall as a Cat 5 (Cat 4 on our scale), with winds of ~120 kt (1-min). The Learmonth Meteorological Office measured a gust to a whopping 144 kt as the eye passed just a hair to the E, and they were measuring sustained winds at this time near 97 kt (10-min). It was an intense and damaging storm. Here's some raw video footage from Exmouth, which was in the right (weaker) eyewall and got really raked. There are some cool shots in between the ones of the chaser dude doing stuff with rope and claiming to be standing in sustained winds of 250 km/hr (135 kt)-- which of course he wasn't. (You can't stand still holding a mike in an actual sustained hurricane wind, let alone 135 kt!) Still a cool video, though. There's a Part 2 which shows really heavy wind damage all around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Adam, you around? One of my Aussie chaser-dude friends wants to know how you feel about the landfall prospects this evening. I had relayed to them what you posted earlier today (above). Please advise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Following the 12z guidance the BOM has shifted the track well west of the previous advisory: The 18z GFS, which at 12z was in the left side of the guidance, is a bit right now, and scrapes the Exmouth peninsula... very close to what the 12z Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Yep-- and the track this morning has been shifted even further W. Looks like a miss. If the trend continues this will be a small victory for the JTWC, which always kept it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 And even further W. The cyclone's actually been losing longitude over the last 12 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Iggy does look better this morning. Too bad it's a fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Compared with the dramatic forecasts on Friday--showing a Cat 4 making landfall near Exmouth Gulf-- this is mega-lame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Compared with the dramatic forecasts on Friday--showing a Cat 4 making landfall near Exmouth Gulf-- this is mega-lame: lol. This is the first I've looked at it since friday afternoon. Good job by the models two days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 lol. This is the first I've looked at it since friday afternoon. Good job by the models two days out Were you surprised at the lameness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Were you surprised at the lameness? Definitely. GFS scored the rare coup with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Definitely. GFS scored the rare coup with this one. Interestin'. So the GFS kept it way offshore and weak, pretty much? P.S. Wub da new avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Interestin'. So the GFS kept it way offshore and weak, pretty much? Yup. It was the only model that stayed consistently offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yup. It was the only model that stayed consistently offshore Gotcha. So what's next? The Euro looks like crap for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitso Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah GFS pretty well nailed it too, none of the 20 ensemble members had it getting below about 975Hpa in any update as they never predicted the alignment of the upper ridging over the LLCC (something the EC was hell bent on and something that never eventuated) I normally look at the EC ensemble when making chase decisions, I'm glad for our team's sake I went with GFS for this one and saved us all about $5000. What a dismal start of the year to our Aussie cyclone chasing endeavours. Let's hope Feb - Apr will end with a bang. Looks like the next Coral Sea system will either be (A) a fish ( just a really intense monsoon LOW OR © All of the above. www.ozcyclonechasers.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So it looks like we have a few chances for development this week, but nothing particularly interesting. One tropical storm will form from the Invest near Vanuatu and curve southward along 160E while boomer's storm will form in the Coral Sea and head due east toward Vanuatu or New Caledonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thanks, Adam, for watering the discussion. The prospects are so bleak I honestly couldn't muster the energy to post an update about them. But, just from a climo perspective, things should improve. We're just about to enter February, which is sort of like Oz's "September". For the period 1970-2010, here are the approximate total numbers of Oz landfalls of Severe Tropical Cyclones (Cat 3 or greater), by month: Nov: 2 Dec: 17 Jan: 9 Feb: 22 Mar: 22 Apr: 8 I say "approximate" because the BoM doesn't have official landfall stats like the NHC does, so I had to dig up the data manually-- and there are always borderline cases, etc. Anyhoo, we're entering peak season now. The next two months are the zone. Let's see some action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hey guys! Iggy is going to make landfall tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hot stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 In other news... I low over the Cape York Peninsula should develop into a cyclone once it moves into the Coral Sea-- but it'll be moving away from Queensland, so big whoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 In other news... I low over the Cape York Peninsula should develop into a cyclone once it moves into the Coral Sea-- but it'll be moving away from Queensland, so big whoop. Noumea might see 35 kt gusts next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Noumea might see 35 kt gusts next week Anything interesting brewing in the medium and long ranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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