AccuWeather Strikes Again

[MGorse]

I can assure you (having been there) that no one at AccuWx has gone through all the severe wx training that folks in the NWS have gone through (unless by chance they have been in the NWS previously, but that is a move I have never heard of anyone making).

I can verify this, also having been there. The training when I was at AccuWeather was not that great.

[MGorse]

Good points to make for sure. I would elaborate on the "customized forecast that the NWS can't really provide" a bit to qualify these services as products that are made on a regular basis. Sure, anyone can contact the NWS for more information at any time, but as far as receiving a customized product for specific needs on a regular basis, private companies can provide such a service and thus fill that gap in the market. Private companies can also provide proprietary software (and hardware).

As far as the wording of the warning message, which is what I believe the biggest issue is, it would be nice to know if that wording was by UMD or by AccuWeather/WeatherData (WeatherData is the Wichita office... don't know if WeatherData goes by that name anymore). As far as I know, the warnings disseminated by AccuWeather/WeatherData do not contain such certain wording that was distributed by UMD.

Did some searching and it appears WeatherData's name has now been changed to AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, Inc.

http://www.accuweath...asp?entry=54195

[Derecho!]

The fact that Maryland had several fatalities caused by a tornado within the past decade probably played a factor in their overzealous warning.

Are all colleges getting obsessive about warnings and notifications to the students?

I've been a Georgetown Grad Student for the last couple of years, and there are incessant messages and warnings about this or that. Was real useful finding out there was an earthquake half an hour after it happened.

Honestly, I think the driver nationally was probably the VA Tech shootings.

[JamieOber]

Haha the old Day after Tomorrow one... nice!

Things must have changed some after you left. The hype shenanigans sure seemed to be worse once you were gone and many on the floor hated it.

So I've heard.

lol story on Day After Tomorrow.....

Me to my boss (Lee): "So, I think we need to think about what we are going to do about The Day After Tomorrow and how to handle the press calls."

Boss to me: "Why? Is there a big storm coming day after tomorrow?"

Also, they asked Joe Sobel to go watch it and it was funny talking to him about it......I remember him saying he was the only one in the theater laughing at it like it was a comedy, and the water instantly freezing and storm driving down deadly cold air parts drove him absolutely nuts.

[JamieOber]

Are all colleges getting obsessive about warnings and notifications to the students?

I've been a Georgetown Grad Student for the last couple of years, and there are incessant messages and warnings about this or that. Was real useful finding out there was an earthquake half an hour after it happened.

Honestly, I think the driver nationally was probably the VA Tech shootings.

I work in communications at PSU for my department and work with the main public information office - I can tell you, yeah, VT was a big driver.

One thing I mentioned earlier - social media often beats the Official Word when it comes to alerts.

[HM]

I can assure you (having been there) that no one at AccuWx has gone through all the severe wx training that folks in the NWS have gone through (unless by chance they have been in the NWS previously, but that is a move I have never heard of anyone making).

I see nothing wrong with private companies issuing alerts tailor made for clients regarding times when conditions are favorable for some event to occur, but all official warnings should come from the NWS.

I couldn't agree more with everything you just said.

[Harv_poor]

From what I remember it had something to do with some kind of dewpoint/temperature combination forecast for that specific region that had something to do with prime snowmaking conditions. This was in 1961, so I would imagine it would have a lot more value than today because of communications then.

Did not realize Accuweather started in 61. Myers stayed on the Penn State faculty for at least 10 more years as I was at Penn State from 70 to 74 and I can remember seeing him (and some of the others) in the weather tower (can't remember what the building was called). Was the ski resort Blue Knob? Thanks

[Itunis]

I work in communications at PSU for my department and work with the main public information office - I can tell you, yeah, VT was a big driver.

One thing I mentioned earlier - social media often beats the Official Word when it comes to alerts.

This. I'm glad I didn't sign up for the pointless text alert system here.

But sounds like another strike against AccuWx. I've heard a few off the record remarks from a few mets here disparaging them, and while I don't want to bash them as a whole there seem to be some questionable practices there.

[OceanStWx]

The NWS POD stats are pretty good and they over-warn because only about 20 to 30 percent of meso-lows on radar are associated with tornadoes.

The other issue is training. I haven't worked for the NWS or Accuwx so anyone who has should certainly chime in; but from what I've gathered, the training the NWS has to go through isn't even comparable. No private weather company should be mimicking NWS warnings or taking that role. If they want to issue forecasts, alerts, statements or something like a warning...sure....but there is something very wrong with the idea that the NWS can be trumped on this level with the public/private sector WRT severe weather warnings.

Well these issues sort of go hand in hand, so I lumped them together here. Training was the first thing that popped into my head when reading this story. I went through it, hours upon hours of online training and simulations. Followed by hours of simulations at the Norman workshop, in front of some of the preeminent mesoscale and radar meteorologists in the field. Beyond that there is a significant amount of time being spent on why some mesos produce and others don't, a lot of that thanks to the great work being done by our colleagues in the research field. I can only speak for myself in this instance, in that I try and keep up to date with that research in order to make sure I'm putting out the best product I can. Somebody with experience can probably attest to this better than I, but from what I can tell the requirements for a tornado "alert" are fairly basic at AccuWeather. This article (http://www.wtop.com/?nid=58&sid=2592581) listed five criteria, of which two needed to be met for an "alert."

• Rotation, which can be seen with X-ray-like doppler radar
• Hook echo, which can be seen on radar of the type shown on WTOP's website and on TV weather forecasts
• Right mover, which is a storm moving to the right relative to other storms. For example, if most of the storms in the area are moving northeast, and one cell is moving due east
• A certain kind of lightening bolt, called positive polarity, near the rotation or hook echo
• A leading edge notch in a line of storms

I think most of us have a pretty good grasp that things are not as simple as that, and I hope there is more comprehensive training there than just a checklist.

Now I have no problem with AccuWeather issuing customer specific alerts, and in fact welcome them as a valuable partner that can provide detailed information in a situation where the NWS cannot. Think talking a college campus or large factory through a tornado warning, where NWS resources like man power or phones lines would be better served fielding calls about damage or tornado location.

What concerned me was dissemination. This AccuWeather client happened to have sirens, which were used, causing confusion with the surrounding neighborhoods. As a result, it seems that the local broadcast meteorologists were questioned as to why they didn't pass along any warning information. The reason being simply that they didn't have any warning information to pass along. So regardless of the outcome, the result has been a mixed message that could conceivably lead to confusion the next time severe weather threatens. What happens next time the NWS and the TV mets say severe weather is headed to the adjacent neighborhoods but UMD's sirens don't go off? Do people head to the basement? We already have a number of studies saying that people seek secondary confirmation (be it visual sighting, family members, etc) before taking action. If secondary confirmation is going to be UMD's sirens, I would much rather see all sides working in conjunction than in opposition.

[usedtobe]

Well these issues sort of go hand in hand, so I lumped them together here. Training was the first thing that popped into my head when reading this story. I went through it, hours upon hours of online training and simulations. Followed by hours of simulations at the Norman workshop, in front of some of the preeminent mesoscale and radar meteorologists in the field. Beyond that there is a significant amount of time being spent on why some mesos produce and others don't, a lot of that thanks to the great work being done by our colleagues in the research field. I can only speak for myself in this instance, in that I try and keep up to date with that research in order to make sure I'm putting out the best product I can. Somebody with experience can probably attest to this better than I, but from what I can tell the requirements for a tornado "alert" are fairly basic at AccuWeather. This article (http://www.wtop.com/...=58&sid=2592581) listed five criteria, of which two needed to be met for an "alert."

• Rotation, which can be seen with X-ray-like doppler radar
• Hook echo, which can be seen on radar of the type shown on WTOP's website and on TV weather forecasts
• Right mover, which is a storm moving to the right relative to other storms. For example, if most of the storms in the area are moving northeast, and one cell is moving due east
• A certain kind of lightening bolt, called positive polarity, near the rotation or hook echo
• A leading edge notch in a line of storms

I think most of us have a pretty good grasp that things are not as simple as that, and I hope there is more comprehensive training there than just a checklist.

Now I have no problem with AccuWeather issuing customer specific alerts, and in fact welcome them as a valuable partner that can provide detailed information in a situation where the NWS cannot. Think talking a college campus or large factory through a tornado warning, where NWS resources like man power or phones lines would be better served fielding calls about damage or tornado location.

What concerned me was dissemination. This AccuWeather client happened to have sirens, which were used, causing confusion with the surrounding neighborhoods. As a result, it seems that the local broadcast meteorologists were questioned as to why they didn't pass along any warning information. The reason being simply that they didn't have any warning information to pass along. So regardless of the outcome, the result has been a mixed message that could conceivably lead to confusion the next time severe weather threatens. What happens next time the NWS and the TV mets say severe weather is headed to the adjacent neighborhoods but UMD's sirens don't go off? Do people head to the basement? We already have a number of studies saying that people seek secondary confirmation (be it visual sighting, family members, etc) before taking action. If secondary confirmation is going to be UMD's sirens, I would much rather see all sides working in conjunction than in opposition.

Good post. YOur comments concerning uncertainty and how people tend to dealy taking action when they are uncertain are right on.I also think there is a role for a private service to walk clients thru what needs to be done during a warning. SUch an action would compliment the NWS and help the NWS fulfill its mission.

[Eskimo Joe]

Are all colleges getting obsessive about warnings and notifications to the students?

I've been a Georgetown Grad Student for the last couple of years, and there are incessant messages and warnings about this or that. Was real useful finding out there was an earthquake half an hour after it happened.

Honestly, I think the driver nationally was probably the VA Tech shootings.

Speaking as a (graduate) student, I am happy that text/email alerts are being implemented for natural/man made hazards. It is nice to know the institution you are attending is as concerned for your well being as you are. With that said, the alert process must be streamlined, expedient and accurate as possible or it will quickly become a useless product.

[Jesse Ferrell - AccuWx]

It speaks volumes that Jesse Ferrell from Accwx has not returned to this thread to relay what message Accwx gave to UMD that contradicts what the university provided to staff and students.

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

I don't have access to the message itself, that would have to come out of the Wichita office, but it wouldn't be as simple as what was transmitted by UMD.

[JamieOber]

Did not realize Accuweather started in 61. Myers stayed on the Penn State faculty for at least 10 more years as I was at Penn State from 70 to 74 and I can remember seeing him (and some of the others) in the weather tower (can't remember what the building was called). Was the ski resort Blue Knob? Thanks

I don't know if it was Blue Knob, I forget.

It was always fun to hear Joel talk about something meteorology-related when I worked there. The man knows his stuff.

[Ellinwood]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

I don't have access to the message itself, that would have to come out of the Wichita office, but it wouldn't be as simple as what was transmitted by UMD.

Attacks and mockery, sure. Threats? When did someone threaten AccuWx on this board?

While there has been plenty of AccuWx mocking in this thread, the question of the exact wording of the warning AccuWx sent to UMD remains valid. Thank you for informing us on your knowledge regarding this question. Would it be possible to get someone who does know the wording to disclose it, or is such a warning and its contents not allowed to be disclosed (either due to the contract agreement with UMD or otherwise)?

[usedtobe]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

I don't have access to the message itself, that would have to come out of the Wichita office, but it wouldn't be as simple as what was transmitted by UMD.

Jesse,

hopefully, none of the bashing was directed to you and was more aimed at the lack of response from Accuwx to what many of us think is a real problem, the public getting conflicting information about severe weather. Part of the reason Accwx gets bashed is historical and is in response to how Accuwx has dealt with the NWS in the past. People and organizations tend to reap what they sow and accuwx at times has been very critical of the NWS in the past. They also led a consortium that aimed at getting the NWS privatized. The response in this thread reflects that past. That's probably unfortunate and may be unfair but people deal with others largely on a quid pro quo basis. If someone has bashed you repeatedly you tend to not give them the benefit of the doubt that you may give another person or group. The alert and failure to acknowledge that the call that a tornado was a bad one seems a little hypocritical in view of Accuwx's criticism of the NWS after Katrina and hurricane forecasts. Accuwx should hold itself to the same standard that it holds the NWS hurricane warning and forecasts. That said, bashing a forecast is not a good practice as all forecasters make mistakes. Hopefully, the next time an NWS forecaster makes a bad call, Accuwx won't release some type of public statement criticizing the forecast. Note that there is much less criticism here of other private forecast companies and individuals except JB and DT. There's a reason for that.

[huronicane]

This article (http://www.wtop.com/...=58&sid=2592581)

"I would absolutely do the same thing again, having the same information," Limansky says. "I'm not going to start surfing around for different information, going to websites, seeing what the National Weather Service says and start second guessing things. I need to act."

Just something about the way he said that...

[AtticaFanatica]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

You should be lauded for providing information about situations like these and facing the music so to speak, but I think you're being dramatic in this instance. This thread is actually a pretty good discussion.

[MGorse]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

I don't have access to the message itself, that would have to come out of the Wichita office, but it wouldn't be as simple as what was transmitted by UMD.

Threats???

Thanks Jesse for posting on here. It seems like you are the only one that does from AccuWeather. Overall, this thread has been a pretty good discussion.

[usedtobe]

Threats???

Thanks Jesse for posting on here. It seems like you are the only one that does from AccuWeather. Overall, this thread has been a pretty good discussion.

I agree. I also saw no threats and think overall, the thread was pretty good. If someone had made a threat, I'm pretty sure they would be banned from the board.

[NYsnowlover]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

I don't have access to the message itself, that would have to come out of the Wichita office, but it wouldn't be as simple as what was transmitted by UMD.

This is why we still need the National Weather Service.

lol, all you at Accuwrong ever care about is money, money, money!!!!

And I think that is the main reason why you guys want to get rid of the National Weather Service, because you want EVERYONE in the nation to get their weather information from you, now I am not saying that everyone who works for Accuweather as a met is bad, because in my opinion, a lot of great mets work there, and all of them take great pride in their work, but there are people who YOU know about who made it into a hype machine that cares not about its clients well being, but profits, and to me, that is just WRONG, and I do not like it one F@#$%* bit.

And could any of you on here imagine if ALL of our forecasts were made by Accuweather?

Places like NYC would have Blizzard Warnings for little clippers, we would have High Wind Warnings for 10 MPH breezes, and there would be Tornado Warnings left and right, and those would have a 10% verification rate.

To me this whole episode is just not good for accuweather, it makes them look VERY foolish, and I think that someone should lose their job for this, because it is inciting panic, and fear, and what if one day a REAL TORNADO hits the University of Maryland? Almost no one would trust the Tornado Warning, and it wont matter WHO had issued it, they wont trust it, and that could lead to someone getting seriously hurt, or even killed, and the blood would be on YOUR hands.

Sorry if this message sounds threatening, or bitter, but those are just some things that I have been holding back for a ling time against Accuweather.

[NYsnowlover]

I also think that Accuweather NEEDS to ISSUE an apology to the public for this MAJOR mistake that was made by them, and in that Apology, they need to state that something like this will NEVER EVER happen again, and that they will try their best to fully go fourth with a policy on these things that is professional, and not amateur.

[AtticaFanatica]

I also think that Accuweather NEEDS to ISSUE an apology to the public for this MAJOR mistake that was made by them, and in that Apology, they need to state that something like this will NEVER EVER happen again, and that they will try their best to fully go fourth with a policy on these things that is professional, and not amateur.

The forecast was not made for the public, it was made for a client. It seems likely that the information they presented to the client was not communicated effectively or accurately.

That being said, the statement they made in response to the events was awful, the tornado "south of campus" is particularly egregious, as has been pointed out.

[JamieOber]

Threats???

Thanks Jesse for posting on here. It seems like you are the only one that does from AccuWeather. Overall, this thread has been a pretty good discussion.

It would be great if Jesse and some others from there would post about weather stuff. Jesse's a severe weather whiz and would be solid. Although I understand if there is some policy about it, don't know if there is.

Despite what some might think, there are a lot of really smart people who work for AccuWeather.

[Jim Marusak]

Did not realize Accuweather started in 61. Myers stayed on the Penn State faculty for at least 10 more years as I was at Penn State from 70 to 74 and I can remember seeing him (and some of the others) in the weather tower (can't remember what the building was called). Was the ski resort Blue Knob? Thanks

you talking the old tower in Deike Building? that's mainly storage now. all the weather stuff is the top 3 floors of Walker building now.

[usedtobe]

It would be great if Jesse and some others from there would post about weather stuff. Jesse's a severe weather whiz and would be solid. Although I understand if there is some policy about it, don't know if there is.

Despite what some might think, there are a lot of really smart people who work for AccuWeather.

I agree. Joe Lundberg used to post over at eastern. He was a good poster and always seemed pretty level headed. The real weenies thought he had a warm, no snow bias which means he was and is pretty objective

[MGorse]

It would be great if Jesse and some others from there would post about weather stuff. Jesse's a severe weather whiz and would be solid. Although I understand if there is some policy about it, don't know if there is.

Despite what some might think, there are a lot of really smart people who work for AccuWeather.

I agree. Not sure though about a policy for them not to post here about weather stuff. I know AccuWeather has their own forum though, so who knows.

[Harv_poor]

you talking the old tower in Deike Building? that's mainly storage now. all the weather stuff is the top 3 floors of Walker building now.

Not sure. Long time ago.

Thanks

[VAwxman]

I agree. Not sure though about a policy for them not to post here about weather stuff. I know AccuWeather has their own forum though, so who knows.

Forgot they have their own forum now so maybe that changes things. Back when I was there, no restriction existed regarding posting on a weather forum. Don't know now.

[Parsley]

I agree. Joe Lundberg used to post over at eastern. He was a good poster and always seemed pretty level headed. The real weenies thought he had a warm, no snow bias which means he was and is pretty objective

Right on. By far my favorite Met. at AccuWeather. Very level-headed guy.

[Master of Disaster]

What speaks volumes is the attacks and threats to AccuWeather and myself that occur on this board, which cause me to not want to engage in further discourse.

Agreed, and whats so comical is that a few here think the bashing reflects brilliance when its actually an embarrassment to this forum. As I told you in the PM I sent. If it wasnt for the mets and pro forecasters who post some really great stuff here, no one would care to visit or post in this forum at all.