AccuWeather Strikes Again

[ORH_wxman]

I think the point I was making is being missed. I'm not comparing NWS to AccuWeather.

I understand your point. I work in the private sector. The goal isn't to make NWS look bad...its just to offer a product that is better than what they can get for free from NWS. The NWS doesn't get paid by clients...they are funded by the government, but I know they look at other forecasts...whether officially or unofficially to see how they are stacking up. I've talked to NWS BOX many times...and they are certainly aware when others are criticizing their forecasts from the private sector.

[baroclinic_instability]

I understand your point. I work in the private sector. The goal isn't to make NWS look bad...its just to offer a product that is better than what they can get for free from NWS. The NWS doesn't get paid by clients...they are funded by the government, but I know they look at other forecasts...whether officially or unofficially to see how they are stacking up. I've talked to NWS BOX many times...and they are certainly aware when others are criticizing their forecasts from the private sector.

If anyone thinks working in the NWS is glamorous they need to think again. Part of the territory is an inordinate amount of criticism from both the private met sector and public. One has to have a thick skin, and one has to take solace in knowing they are providing an amazing service that few will truly appreciate/understand in how that service was actually created and how much work it took to get to that point. And this is coming from the private sector where there was generally very litte appreciation for the work performed. At least in the road weather private sector you have a very specific clientele group who generally knows and appreciates the effort and product (at least the managers themselves who need to make critical decisions with the forecast products).

[Ian]

I understand your point. I work in the private sector. The goal isn't to make NWS look bad...its just to offer a product that is better than what they can get for free from NWS. The NWS doesn't get paid by clients...they are funded by the government, but I know they look at other forecasts...whether officially or unofficially to see how they are stacking up. I've talked to NWS BOX many times...and they are certainly aware when others are criticizing their forecasts from the private sector.

It's as simple as people in your field making you better. It can happen multiple ways, but it's a true concept. I steered clear from met when younger because the job market looked horrible. It might still today, but it sure seems like there are more opportunities now than 10 years or so ago. NWS is huge but it's not huge enough if it was the only entity. Getting more intelligent people into the field is a positive and private companies undoubtedly have a lot to do with it.

[baroclinic_instability]

It's as simple as people in your field making you better. It can happen multiple ways, but it's a true concept. I steered clear from met when younger because the job market looked horrible. It might still today, but it sure seems like there are more opportunities now than 10 years or so ago. NWS is huge but it's not huge enough if it was the only entity. Getting more intelligent people into the field is a positive and private companies undoubtedly have a lot to do with it.

The private weather sector is full of bright minds and folks with entrepreneurial spirits. The weather synergy between public/private organizations is amazing. I only lament the few who believe weather should be fully privatized for profit only. Those folks/companies are missing the whole point.

[ORH_wxman]

If anyone thinks working in the NWS is glamorous they need to think again. Part of the territory is is an inordinate amount of criticism from both the private met sector and public. One has to have a thick skin, and one has to take solace in knowing they are providing an amazing service that few will truly appreciate/understand in how that service was actually created and how much work it took to get to that point. And this is coming from the private sector where there was generally very litte appreciation for the work performed. At least in the road weather private sector you have a very specific clientele group who generally knows and appreciates the eeffort and product ( at least the managers themselves who need to make critical decisions with the forecast products).

NWS is a good place to work IMHO, job security and benefits are extremely good...I interned at NWS BOX years ago. But you are right, its not all glamorous...shift work can take its toll and there is certainly criticism that goes around.

I think my point was to agree with Ian that competition is a good thing even if indirectly. There is not direct competition with the NWS since they are not being paid by clients that the private sector is, but that does not mean they do not look at how their forecasts are stacking up versus the private sector. Again, whether officially or unofficially...I do not think they have an "official" tally in offices of how private sectors do vs them...maybe somewhere higher up they do, who knows. But they are very aware of the criticism and the forecasts put out by private sector companies/individuals. I have a good relationship with NWS BOX as many of their employees post here, and we have actually collaborated many times on this board on forecasts. (unofficially of course)

[isohume]

I understand your point. I work in the private sector. The goal isn't to make NWS look bad...its just to offer a product that is better than what they can get for free from NWS. The NWS doesn't get paid by clients...they are funded by the government, but I know they look at other forecasts...whether officially or unofficially to see how they are stacking up. I've talked to NWS BOX many times...and they are certainly aware when others are criticizing their forecasts from the private sector.

Yeah we're aware of the criticism we receive from all our customers, especially the media when they say something on air. However, we don't take it as a competitive jab. I was sorta shocked to see all the Air Force forecasters who thought for sure we looked at their TAFs to compare to ours before we issued...when in fact, we never look at them.

I guess I'm saying we don't rely on other's forecasts to compare ours to....we look at how we are doing against MOS and our GPRA goals. We don't have the time really as were busy evaluating the data and tearing apart the models.

[baroclinic_instability]

NWS is a good place to work IMHO, job security and benefits are extremely good...I interned at NWS BOX years ago. But you are right, its not all glamorous...shift work can take its toll and there is certainly criticism that goes around.

I think my point was to agree with Ian that competition is a good thing even if indirectly. There is not direct competition with the NWS since they are not being paid by clients that the private sector is, but that does not mean they do not look at how their forecasts are stacking up versus the private sector. Again, whether officially or unofficially...I do not think they have an "official" tally in offices of how private sectors do vs them...maybe somewhere higher up they do, who knows. But they are very aware of the criticism and the forecasts put out by private sector companies/individuals. I have a good relationship with NWS BOX as many of their employees post here, and we have actually collaborated many times on this board on forecasts. (unofficially of course)

Sorry I should have been more specific--I was not alluding to you specifically but the general thought amongst some that working for the NWS is a glam job. I was using your post to branch off into another topic..

On a different note, the collaboration aspect you mention above is awesome, and it is something I would like to see more of amongst other sectors in weather, especially road weather. UDOT had an amazing relationship with the NWS, and the road weather products from UDOT/NW Weather-net (the private firm contracted by UDOT) would typically be incorporated into NWS products after collaboration. It is what I want to see more of in public weather since road travel conditions are typically not something the public has much information on (and something that is not readily available). The biggest impacts with many storms are often from high impacts to road weather, and many times the folks who die/get stranded simply did not have the proper information even though the science is readily understood.

[ORH_wxman]

Sorry I should have been more specific--I was not alluding to you specifically but the general thought amongst some that working for the NWS is a glam job. I was using your post to branch off into another topic..

On a different note, the collaboration aspect you mention above is awesome, and it is something I would like to see more of amongst other sectors in weather, especially road weather. UDOT had an amazing relationship with the NWS, and the road weather products from UDOT/NW Weather-net (the private firm contracted by UDOT) would typically be incorporated into NWS products after collaboration. It is what I want to see more of in public weather since road travel conditions are typically not something the public has much information on (and something that is not readily available). The biggest impacts with many storms are often from high impacts to road weather, and many times the folks who die/get stranded simply did not have the proper information even though the science is readily understood.

Yes it is. I think this forum (and previously eastern) has made forecasting better in many NWS offices IMHO. There is no way to directly measure it, but the amount of back and forth I've (and other private sectors mets in SNE) been involved in over the last 5 years with NWS BOX people before a storm has been amazing and I truly feel it has had a positive impact. The first thing we learn in forecasting is that its extremely tough to beat consensus long term...esp when its a group of talented mets.

I know not every office has posters on here, so it was definitely vary, but I do believe those that have been interactive on this board have seen positive results in high impact weather events.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yes it is. I think this forum (and previously eastern) has made forecasting better in many NWS offices IMHO. There is no way to directly measure it, but the amount of back and forth I've (and other private sectors mets in SNE) been involved in over the last 5 years with NWS BOX people before a storm has been amazing and I truly feel it has had a positive impact. The first thing we learn in forecasting is that its extremely tough to beat consensus long term...esp when its a group of talented mets.

I know not every office has posters on here, so it was definitely vary, but I do believe those that have been interactive on this board have seen positive results in high impact weather events.

That is great to hear, we may need to discuss it in private more sometime. I am working (at least getting the relationship going) with NDOR trying to get more involved and start a collaboration in weather information regarding road weather. I finally had the opportunity to talk to a district manager with NDOR, and he has amazing goals and a very singular focus similar to what I want to see more of, but the dialogue was just never there. I want to start something like UDOT/SLC NWS had where actual road snow levels, road weather impacts, etc. were actually used in NWS warnings/watches/advisories. The real struggle is that every state has their own contracts/obligations, and with each, the collaboration aspects between the NWS/individual DOT's may or may not be there depending on the small print in the contracts.

[isohume]

That is great to hear, we may need to discuss it in private more sometime. I am working (at least getting the relationship going) with NDOR trying to get more involved and start a collaboration in weather information regarding road weather. I finally had the opportunity to talk to a district manager with NDOR, and he has amazing goals and a very singular focus similar to what I want to see more of, but the dialogue was just never there. I want to start something like UDOT/SLC NWS had where actual road snow levels, road weather impacts, etc. were actually used in NWS warnings/watches/advisories. The real struggle is that every state has their own contracts/obligations, and with each, the collaboration aspects between the NWS/individual DOT's may or may not be there depending on the small print in the contracts.

Yeah we have a good collaboration program ongoing with the NC/SC/GA DOTs to determine road temperature changes in relation to snowfall accums, which will then go into our grids. We've found many state agencies, like air quality and forestry agencies are great to work with and they are more than happy share data in these endeavors. Data which was generally hard to come by before.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah we have a good collaboration program ongoing with the NC/SC/GA DOTs to determine road temperature changes in relation to snowfall accums, which will then go into our grids. We've found many state agencies, like air quality and forestry agencies are great to work with and they are more than happy share data in these endeavors. Data which was generally hard to come by before.

I may be talking to you as well sometime soon.

No more thread derailment from me. Back to the Accuweather discussion.

[JamieOber]

I don't see how or why the NWS would want to compete with an entertainment company.

Private companies provide more jobs, which provides more incentive, which provides more students. If NWS had no competition and was a national weather monopoly the field would be quite tiny. There is competition among those people... many of the best go to NWS.

Then there are likely many smaller or even innovative type of things that come from ideas outside and built inside.

I doubt everything that's come out of AccuWx is pure entertainment. It's not that black and white.

AccuWeather and TWC are similar in that they are really two companies. One is a media content company, and another is a private forecasting firm.

The outward public face of AccuWx is the site, videos, TV mets, AccuWeather TV Franchise stations, radio forecasts, newspaper weather, site content, etc. For the general public, they do a really good job of communicating what 99 percent of the public want - simple everyday forecast. That's the media side.

The private forecast firm does forecasting for transportation companies, snow warning stuff for schools, energy, etc. You guys never see that side. Why that has value is it's a customized forecast that the NWS can't really provide.

The issue here is the public face of AccuWeather is the hype side and that can of course clash with the private forecasting side.

One final note - very, very few people ever thought of the concept of a private forecasting firm - Joel Myers practically invented that idea. First customer was a ski resort wanting to know when best times to make snow would be based on weather factors. Joel could offer them pinpoint forecasts the weather service couldn't.

[isohume]

One final note - very, very few people ever thought of the concept of a private forecasting firm - Joel Myers practically invented that idea. First customer was a ski resort wanting to know when best times to make snow would be based on weather factors. Joel could offer them pinpoint forecasts the weather service couldn't.

I'm just curious...what weather factors could JM see that the NWS could not? We get many calls during winter from our mtn ski resorts requesting the same fcst information.

[usedtobe]

NWS is a good place to work IMHO, job security and benefits are extremely good...I interned at NWS BOX years ago. But you are right, its not all glamorous...shift work can take its toll and there is certainly criticism that goes around.

I think my point was to agree with Ian that competition is a good thing even if indirectly. There is not direct competition with the NWS since they are not being paid by clients that the private sector is, but that does not mean they do not look at how their forecasts are stacking up versus the private sector. Again, whether officially or unofficially...I do not think they have an "official" tally in offices of how private sectors do vs them...maybe somewhere higher up they do, who knows. But they are very aware of the criticism and the forecasts put out by private sector companies/individuals. I have a good relationship with NWS BOX as many of their employees post here, and we have actually collaborated many times on this board on forecasts. (unofficially of course)

I agree about the NWS being a good place to work unless things have chnaged in the past 6 years. Shift work does take its toll. I don't remember getting a lot of criticism except from Bosses occasionally or by local NWS offices when they didn't like our guidance. In that respect they were bigger critics than the general public. I'm pretty sure there are no real comparison stats as many private entities don't keep as comprehensive stats as the NWS. I do think the NWS has better training than most private entities as training takes man hours and money. However, I never considered the private companies as rivals except when Accuweather and MIke Smith's company were pushing for privatization and were critical of the NWS.

[JamieOber]

I'm just curious...what weather factors could JM see that the NWS could not? We get many calls during winter from our mtn ski resorts requesting the same fcst information.

From what I remember it had something to do with some kind of dewpoint/temperature combination forecast for that specific region that had something to do with prime snowmaking conditions. This was in 1961, so I would imagine it would have a lot more value than today because of communications then.

[JamieOber]

I agree about the NWS being a good place to work unless things have chnaged in the past 6 years. Shift work does take its toll. I don't remember getting a lot of criticism except from Bosses occasionally or by local NWS offices when they didn't like our guidance. In that respect they were bigger critics than the general public. I'm pretty sure there are no real comparison stats as many private entities don't keep as comprehensive stats as the NWS. I do think the NWS has better training than most private entities as training takes man hours and money. However, I never considered the private companies as rivals except when Accuweather and MIke Smith's company were pushing for privatization and were critical of the NWS.

AccuWx's rival really isn't NWS - it's TWC.

[isohume]

From what I remember it had something to do with some kind of dewpoint/temperature combination forecast for that specific region that had something to do with prime snowmaking conditions. This was in 1961, so I would imagine it would have a lot more value than today because of communications then.

Oh 1961...that makes sense then. The NWS did ag forecasts back then...but rec forecasts were on their own. He did fill a niche and I'm surprised others didn't jump in back then. Nowadays the NWS creates hourly 2.5 km forecasts of many met variables for anywhere in the U.S.

[usedtobe]

AccuWx's rival really isn't NWS - it's TWC.

True but they did push for privatization of the NWS so at one time it was hard to consider them friends. Outside of that, the private sector were and are considered partners in trying to get weather information out to the public.

[Ellinwood]

The outward public face of AccuWx is the site, videos, TV mets, AccuWeather TV Franchise stations, radio forecasts, newspaper weather, site content, etc. For the general public, they do a really good job of communicating what 99 percent of the public want - simple everyday forecast. That's the media side.

The private forecast firm does forecasting for transportation companies, snow warning stuff for schools, energy, etc. You guys never see that side. Why that has value is it's a customized forecast that the NWS can't really provide.

The issue here is the public face of AccuWeather is the hype side and that can of course clash with the private forecasting side.

Good points to make for sure. I would elaborate on the "customized forecast that the NWS can't really provide" a bit to qualify these services as products that are made on a regular basis. Sure, anyone can contact the NWS for more information at any time, but as far as receiving a customized product for specific needs on a regular basis, private companies can provide such a service and thus fill that gap in the market. Private companies can also provide proprietary software (and hardware).

As far as the wording of the warning message, which is what I believe the biggest issue is, it would be nice to know if that wording was by UMD or by AccuWeather/WeatherData (WeatherData is the Wichita office... don't know if WeatherData goes by that name anymore). As far as I know, the warnings disseminated by AccuWeather/WeatherData do not contain such certain wording that was distributed by UMD.

[JamieOber]

True but they did push for privatization of the NWS so at one time it was hard to consider them friends. Outside of that, the private sector were and are considered partners in trying to get weather information out to the public.

Actually, I was commenting more on why it's not a great idea to go after the NWS so much when it's TWC that's the real competitor.

[usedtobe]

Actually, I was commenting more on why it's not a great idea to go after the NWS so much when it's TWC that's the real competitor.

True but I'm not sure Joel has always thought that. He made a big mistake in not starting a weather channel years ago and competing outrght with Landmark from the get go, He wasn't willing to take the chance. The TWC channel is a great way to sell a product as it's free publicity every time someone tunes in.

[Master of Disaster]

LOL at the questioning of why anyone from Accuweather hasn't reported back here to explain anything else. Reading that made my day.

We get Accuweather alerts as well as Weather bug alerts. Its SOP to follow NWS guidance every time. I cant tell you how many times I have received Weather bug alerts, opened the warning system to send and then find out the alert is incorrect or touched the County border which auto triggered the alert. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this was a similar case. The NWS released a Tornado Warning that came close to or touched the PG county line, triggering a PG alert to the EMs there.

[VAwxman]

The other issue is training. I haven't worked for the NWS or Accuwx so anyone who has should certainly chime in; but from what I've gathered, the training the NWS has to go through isn't even comparable. No private weather company should be mimicking NWS warnings or taking that role. If they want to issue forecasts, alerts, statements or something like a warning...sure....but there is something very wrong with the idea that the NWS can be trumped on this level with the public/private sector WRT severe weather warnings.

I can assure you (having been there) that no one at AccuWx has gone through all the severe wx training that folks in the NWS have gone through (unless by chance they have been in the NWS previously, but that is a move I have never heard of anyone making).

I see nothing wrong with private companies issuing alerts tailor made for clients regarding times when conditions are favorable for some event to occur, but all official warnings should come from the NWS.

[VAwxman]

AccuWeather and TWC are similar in that they are really two companies. One is a media content company, and another is a private forecasting firm.

The outward public face of AccuWx is the site, videos, TV mets, AccuWeather TV Franchise stations, radio forecasts, newspaper weather, site content, etc. For the general public, they do a really good job of communicating what 99 percent of the public want - simple everyday forecast. That's the media side.

The private forecast firm does forecasting for transportation companies, snow warning stuff for schools, energy, etc. You guys never see that side. Why that has value is it's a customized forecast that the NWS can't really provide.

The issue here is the public face of AccuWeather is the hype side and that can of course clash with the private forecasting side.

One final note - very, very few people ever thought of the concept of a private forecasting firm - Joel Myers practically invented that idea. First customer was a ski resort wanting to know when best times to make snow would be based on weather factors. Joel could offer them pinpoint forecasts the weather service couldn't.

We've discussed this before, but I can't count how many times folks on the acual forecasting side were furious with what the "hype" side would put out in press releases or on the web site. There is a lot of good stuff that goes on at AccuWx. As you said, it's just that folks only see the hype stuff.

[VAwxman]

AccuWx's rival really isn't NWS - it's TWC.

Wasn't it amazing how upper level management at AccuWx could NEVER seem to get that straight?

[JamieOber]

We've discussed this before, but I can't count how many times folks on the acual forecasting side were furious with what the "hype" side would put out in press releases or on the web site. There is a lot of good stuff that goes on at AccuWx. As you said, it's just that folks only see the hype stuff.

They were always run by the senior forecasters and a senior VP who is also a forecaster before release. The thing I used to hate was when I would be in the middle of a dispute between two forecasters. Elliot Abrams, Ken Reeves, and Joe Sobel were always pretty good as sounding boards.

I went to look for older weather releases and a lot of them are gone. I remember writing this one, lol: http://www.accuweather.com/press.asp?entry=37601&tag=press-weather

You guys had zero idea how many headaches I saved you down on the Ops Floor from that one. I coordinated how we responded to it so you all wouldn't get a constant flow of calls like "hey Brian, Joe Smith from the Podunk Press - say, could the Day After Tomorrow really happen or what???"

[JamieOber]

Wasn't it amazing how upper level management at AccuWx could NEVER seem to get that straight?

I know. But, hey, accuweather's doing fine, I suppose.

[VAwxman]

They were always run by the senior forecasters and a senior VP who is also a forecaster before release. The thing I used to hate was when I would be in the middle of a dispute between two forecasters. Elliot Abrams, Ken Reeves, and Joe Sobel were always pretty good as sounding boards.

I went to look for older weather releases and a lot of them are gone. I remember writing this one, lol: http://www.accuweath...g=press-weather

You guys had zero idea how many headaches I saved you down on the Ops Floor from that one. I coordinated how we responded to it so you all wouldn't get a constant flow of calls like "hey Brian, Joe Smith from the Podunk Press - say, could the Day After Tomorrow really happen or what???"

Haha the old Day after Tomorrow one... nice!

Things must have changed some after you left. The hype shenanigans sure seemed to be worse once you were gone and many on the floor hated it.

[Ed Lizard]

AccuWx versus TWC, not a big TWC watcher, but back before the internets, John Hope about ten minutes before the hour was my main source of tropical info, and I don't recall him ever hyping the tropics.

I've heard rumors AccuWeather opposes NWS making products like the 0Z and 12Z soundings, and model runs, available to the public for free, I guess because they could charge for that.

But as long as taxpayer money pays for the sondes, computers, and the people running them, I feel quite entitled to model and sounding data.

[MGorse]

AccuWx's rival really isn't NWS - it's TWC.

A highlighted memo needed to be sent to AccuWeather's upper-level management for years and years about this (still does most likely).