AccuWeather Strikes Again

[wxjoe]

I posted about this elsewhere, but here's what I have to say:

UMD tweeted about the alerts as they happened:

6:36pm: UMD ALERT: A tornado is forecast to strike the campus within the next 10 minutes. Seek shelter immediately.

7:19pm: UMD ALERT: ALL CLEAR for the previous tornado at UMD College Park. Disregard further alerts for the time being.

Here's what the warnings and storm reports from that day look like, with a dot at the approximate location of UMD:

Warnings/LSRs via IEM Local Storm Report App

I won't post more radar graphics, but as far as the warning goes, UMD subscribes to "SkyGuard," a product of WeatherData which is a company acquired by Accuweather in 2002. (Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the meteorologists who work at WeatherData are in Kansas and are separate from the forecasters at AccuWx HQ in State College.) WeatherData's "SkyGuard" product issues warnings to clients about severe weather. From their website:

Unlike the National Weather Service, which issues warnings covering large areas, SkyGuard issues warnings only when specific locations are at risk, saving money by keeping facilities running. Customizable warnings based on an organization's criteria can include: tornado, high wind, lightning, flash flooding, hail, extreme temperature, rain, and hurricane

(Side comment: It appears this text did not appear on this page until well after NWS implemented polygon-based severe weather warnings (Oct 2007); the blue bolded text at the top regarding "SkyGuard saving dozens of lives" on 2008 Feb 5 outbreak was added at the same time the text in the quote above was added - sometime between July 2008 and September 2008 according to archive.org.)

I completely understand the need for private weather firms to provide customized products to their clients. For instance, WeatherData can issue "lightning warnings" to clients - this is something that is a great example of the industry filling a real need for outdoor events and other lightning-sensitive industries. However, I do find it distasteful of WeatherData to use the "warning" terminology; as most here know, "NOAA's National Weather Service is the sole official voice of the U.S. government for issuing warnings during life-threatening weather situations." However, I think that is a topic for another time.

I believe a communication breakdown of some sort occurred between UMD and WeatherData concerning how the University should respond to the "tornado warning" from WeatherData. Unless AccuWx/WeatherData or UMD releases the actual message(s) sent to UMD officials, we'll never know exactly who was to blame. Did WeatherData tell UMD a tornado was about to occur, or was an official simply misinterpreting the message?

I'm curious whether UMD has a system in place to warn students if NWS issues a tornado warning and WeatherData doesn't. Luckily there was no physical harm done in this situation, but when we're talking about "warning fatigue" and crying wolf, this event may have had a small but significant impact on how students/faculty/staff at UMD will respond to future warnings.

[Ian]

I'm sure part of the elevated wording in the UMD texts/the fact that UMD took it so seriously was because of their past history. As many remember, the school was hit by an F3 in 2001 that unfortunately killed 2 people.

The general public isn't as knowledgeable about weather as your typical weenie. Given past history, even if there is no NWS warning, if any met tells them that a tornado "is coming" (disregarding the irresponsibility of that warning), the university is probably going to want to act.

That excuses the university for their reaction. That doesn't excuse Accuweather for their "warning," however.

I don't think you can give the university a free pass for the past on this one, especially given what transpired this year and how it has raised the knowledge of the problems we still have with warnings. It's one thing if both the university and AccuWx stepped forward and said "you know, maybe we did things slightly wrong here". It's another when they both act like this was totally a correct course of action. The UMD police chief was quoted saying something to the effect that "We've gotta act without looking at other sources like the National Weather Service".

I've been a fan of Mike Smith since I met him and he was a wonderful conference speaker. But he is always out front on these issues and with this he has ranged from silent to acting as a co-conspirator.

If a tornado hits campus soon and no one pays attention because of this and people die maybe we can re-examine it again.

[Tornado Girl]

IMO when stuff like this are done; it leads to over warned syndrome. When tornado warnings are issued and the siren are blaring, I've seen on a few occasions people will come outside to see if they can see it. This point was driven home on May 22 in Joplin. The vast majority of Joplin residents did not immediately take protective action upon receiving a first indication of risk, instead when the first siren went offmost residents tried to seek more information, either through televised reports, social media or seeing the storm itself. If false warnings are issued too many times people become desensitized or complacent to sirens....

Link to the Joplin report.

http://media.trb.com...60-20121702.pdf

[isohume]

I'm curious what happens when Accuwx misses a tornado. Would their clients have some sort of recourse?

[usedtobe]

There were no active NWS tornado warnings for about 45 minutes to an hour prior to it getting to College Park.

Here is an SRV loop, maybe the first frame or two were still warned: http://t.co/Vy7JjifL

It's not necessarily that there was no rotation etc. But the warning was odd nonetheless. Especially when you factor int he fact that you guys repeatedly bash the NWS for overwarning people and it being unhelpful to do so. Why does the same not apply when you have your client sound sirens for a half hour followed by a later statement to disregard all future warnings?

As Mr. Gorse notes. This! But their reaction and spin is not that surprising as I remember something about a hurricane and Galveston many years ago. I also remember the push to privatize the NWS by a consortium that included Accuweather. Could you imagine the chaos of a number of private companies putting out their own warnings during a hurricane threat or major outbreak?

[NittanyWx]

"Though no tornadoes subsequently touched down on the College Park campus, we had verified the conditions that create tornadoes were present."

What does this mean..."verified the conditions"? And why was it used as a rationalization?

I believe that is referred to as "spin"

[JamieOber]

I don't think you can give the university a free pass for the past on this one, especially given what transpired this year and how it has raised the knowledge of the problems we still have with warnings. It's one thing if both the university and AccuWx stepped forward and said "you know, maybe we did things slightly wrong here". It's another when they both act like this was totally a correct course of action. The UMD police chief was quoted saying something to the effect that "We've gotta act without looking at other sources like the National Weather Service".

I've been a fan of Mike Smith since I met him and he was a wonderful conference speaker. But he is always out front on these issues and with this he has ranged from silent to acting as a co-conspirator.

If a tornado hits campus soon and no one pays attention because of this and people die maybe we can re-examine it again.

Penn State has had the exact opposite issue with our PSUTXT warning system, they always wait way too long. For example, we had a severe t-storm move through here during student move in week, which is a potentially dangerous situation. They didn't get the warning out until the storm was underway for 20 minutes. Also, there was an armed robbery here recently and they waited 2 hours to alert people.

[The Dude]

Penn State has had the exact opposite issue with our PSUTXT warning system, they always wait way too long. For example, we had a severe t-storm move through here during student move in week, which is a potentially dangerous situation. They didn't get the warning out until the storm was underway for 20 minutes. Also, there was an armed robbery here recently and they waited 2 hours to alert people.

The fact that Maryland had several fatalities caused by a tornado within the past decade probably played a factor in their overzealous warning.

[HM]

As Mr. Gorse notes. This! But their reaction and spin is not that surprising as I remember something about a hurricane and Galveston many years ago. I also remember the push to privatize the NWS by a consortium that included Accuweather. Could you imagine the chaos of a number of private companies putting out their own warnings during a hurricane threat or major outbreak?

To privatize the role of the NWS would be an absolute disaster. I am so sick of these people trashing the NWS, completely missing the value of such a beautiful thing that routinely saves lives/property etc.

This Maryland thing is quite laughable. But to spread grand ideas of the "uselessness of the NWS" to the ignorant public is a crime.

If I had it my way, no private companies would be able to issue any warnings that mimic the NWS ever.

[HurricaneJosh]

To privatize the role of the NWS would be an absolute disaster. I am so sick of these people trashing the NWS, completely missing the value of such a beautiful thing that routinely saves lives/property etc.

Agreed. Some things just shouldn't be privatized. We are blessed to have the NWS, and these sleazy entities trashing the NWS for commercial gain are disgusting.

AccuWeather is crap-- a disgrace to the meteorological community. With regard to the tropics, they bring no value. Even when I'm starved for new analysis on an existing cyclone, I won't even go on their Website-- because I know every word published there is aimed at traffic traffic traffic. So the value of their opinion is pretty-much zero. Actually, it's less than zero, because I believe they deliberately exaggerate threats to create drama.

[usedtobe]

Agreed. Some things just shouldn't be privatized. We are blessed to have the NWS, and these sleazy entities trashing the NWS for commercial gain are disgusting.

AccuWeather is crap-- a disgrace to the meteorological community. With regard to the tropics, they bring no value. Even when I'm starved for new analysis on an existing cyclone, I won't even go on their Website-- because I know every word published there is aimed at traffic traffic traffic. So the value of their opinion is pretty-much zero. Actually, it's less than zero, because I believe they deliberately exaggerate threats to create drama.

There are some good people and forecasters at Accuweather. However, their management and the way they have dealt with the NWS (trashed them even the forecast for Katrina) in the past makes the tornado alert stand out as an example where they messed up and then instead of acknowledging that it was a bad call (which it was), they and UMD have spun it as a good call because conditions were ripe of such a storm. It may be unfair to be so critical of Accuwx for this error but their spin and past actions suggest little has changed despite Mike Smith's nice words at the Conference. The NWS POD stats are pretty good and they over-warn because only about 20 to 30 percent of meso-lows on radar are associated with tornadoes.

As to the tornado event that killed two people in College park years ago, I suspect that storm had a warning issued for it but that the infrastructure was not in place to really do much about it at UMD. Now it sounds like the infrastructure is somewhat in place but educating everyone on how best to use it is not.

[Rainshadow]

There are some good people and forecasters at Accuweather. However, their management and the way they have dealt with the NWS (trashed them even the forecast for Katrina) in the past makes the tornado alert stand out as an example where they messed up and then instead of acknowledging that it was a bad call (which it was), they and UMD have spun it as a good call because conditions were ripe of such a storm. It may be unfair to be so critical of Accuwx for this error but their spin and past actions suggest little has changed despite Mike Smith's nice words at the Conference. The NWS POD stats are pretty good and they over-warn because only about 20 to 30 percent of meso-lows on radar are associated with tornadoes.

As to the tornado event that killed two people in College park years ago, I suspect that storm had a warning issued for it but that the infrastructure was not in place to really do much about it at UMD. Now it sounds like the infrastructure is somewhat in place but educating everyone on how best to use it is not.

The Sept 2001 tornado warning was issued at 510 pm for Prince Georges County. At that time all convective related warnings were county based. Tornado damage started at 519 pm.

A large multi-vortex tornado touched down near Hyattsville, tracked along the Route 1 
corridor from College Park to Laurel,  then crossed into Howard County. The tornado killed 
2 students at the University of Maryland, injured 54 others countywide, and caused 100 
million dollars in damage. F20VE, F23VE Severe thunderstorms moved through Central 
Maryland during the early evening of the 24th. One thunderstorm produced a devastating 
F3 tornado which was on the ground for 17.5 miles from College Park in Prince George's 
County to just east of Columbia in Howard County. Multiple vortices were reported with the 
tornado at times. The tornado first touched down in Northwest Branch Stream Valley Park 
just west of Hyattsville. It rapidly strengthened to an F3 tornado with winds up to 200 MPH. 
The damage path ranged in width from 100 to 200 yards. The tornado crossed the intersection
of Adelphi Road and University Boulevard into the western campus of the University of Maryland. 

Ten trailers being used as a temporary office for the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute were 
completely destroyed by the twister. Debris from the trailers such as video tapes and pieces of
paper were found up to 60 miles away in Northern Baltimore and Harford Counties in addition 
to extreme southeast Pennsylvania. Four of the six people inside the trailers were injured, 
one seriously. One staff member was thrown free of the destruction and was found in a
dumpster nearby. Another person dug their hands into the carpet and held on as their feet 
were being  pulled up in the air by the tornado. The other four occupants, including one 
child, took shelter under desks and survived. Two University of Maryland students who 
were visiting their father who worked in the trailers left by car shortly before the
tornado hit. The two sisters, ages 20 and 23, were killed when the tornado picked
up their car outside of Denton Hall and threw it either around or over an 
eight-story dorm. They died instantly when their car crashed into a wooded area 300 
yards from the road. Most of the other buildings on the campus in the path of the storm were 
made of brick and suffered only minor to moderate damage, such as Denton Hall Dormitory, 
Easton Hall Dormitory and Dining Hall, and the President's Mansion. A parking lot outside of
Denton  Hall full of cars was also hit by the tornado. At least 200 vehicles in the parking 
lot were damaged, including at least 100 that were blown into and onto other vehicles. 
At least twenty cars were totaled and one car was partially ripped apart. The woods 
behind the parking lot were nearly flattened. The bubble roof of the football practice 
facility near Byrd Stadium was removed. Forty-eight people on campus, including 25 
students, were injured by flying debris as the twister downed trees and ripped pieces
of siding and roofing off buildings. In addition, residential areas near the campus,
including the University Courtyard Apartments sustained damage. 

A total of 3000 students were left temporarily homeless after two dorms and an off-campus
housing unit were evacuated due to storm damage. During the recovery effort, a 78-year-old 
firefighter who responded to the tragedy at the University died of a heart attack shortly after 
returning from the scene. The tornado moved north-northeast off the campus and crossed 
University Boulevard at the intersection of Metzerott Road.............

[Sunny and Warm]

It speaks volumes that Jesse Ferrell from Accwx has not returned to this thread to relay what message Accwx gave to UMD that contradicts what the university provided to staff and students.

[Ian]

It speaks volumes that Jesse Ferrell from Accwx has not returned to this thread to relay what message Accwx gave to UMD that contradicts what the university provided to staff and students.

it looks like he has not been here since his post yesterday so i dont think he is necessarily ignoring anything

[Sunny and Warm]

it looks like he has not been here since his post yesterday so i dont think he is necessarily ignoring anything

fair enough for Jesse, although I'm sure someone at Accwx has monitored this thread from afar. If posters were out of line, we probably would have heard from Accwx by now.

[The Dude]

AccuWx's and UMD's reactions have had far more spin than the actual storm did.

[JamieOber]

The fact that Maryland had several fatalities caused by a tornado within the past decade probably played a factor in their overzealous warning.

No doubt.

One of the biggest issues with crisis communications is the decision you must make: alert or confirm. And you sometimes have literally seconds to make that call.

An interesting aspect of campus alerts, often so many know what's going on via social media well before the alert is issued via word of mouth.

[Ian]

I bet this happens more often than we know, this just happened to be a big client with a lot of people in listening distance.

I don't dislike Accu like some folks around here do. I think competition is good no matter what. But it would be refreshing to see someone from that company honestly assess the situation which appears unlikely.

[usedtobe]

The Sept 2001 tornado warning was issued at 510 pm for Prince Georges County. At that time all convective related warnings were county based. Tornado damage started at 519 pm.

A large multi-vortex tornado touched down near Hyattsville, tracked along the Route 1 
corridor from College Park to Laurel,  then crossed into Howard County. The tornado killed 
2 students at the University of Maryland, injured 54 others countywide, and caused 100 
million dollars in damage. F20VE, F23VE Severe thunderstorms moved through Central 
Maryland during the early evening of the 24th. One thunderstorm produced a devastating 
F3 tornado which was on the ground for 17.5 miles from College Park in Prince George's 
County to just east of Columbia in Howard County. Multiple vortices were reported with the 
tornado at times. The tornado first touched down in Northwest Branch Stream Valley Park 
just west of Hyattsville. It rapidly strengthened to an F3 tornado with winds up to 200 MPH. 
The damage path ranged in width from 100 to 200 yards. The tornado crossed the intersection
of Adelphi Road and University Boulevard into the western campus of the University of Maryland. 

Ten trailers being used as a temporary office for the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute were 
completely destroyed by the twister. Debris from the trailers such as video tapes and pieces of
paper were found up to 60 miles away in Northern Baltimore and Harford Counties in addition 
to extreme southeast Pennsylvania. Four of the six people inside the trailers were injured, 
one seriously. One staff member was thrown free of the destruction and was found in a
dumpster nearby. Another person dug their hands into the carpet and held on as their feet 
were being  pulled up in the air by the tornado. The other four occupants, including one 
child, took shelter under desks and survived. Two University of Maryland students who 
were visiting their father who worked in the trailers left by car shortly before the
tornado hit. The two sisters, ages 20 and 23, were killed when the tornado picked
up their car outside of Denton Hall and threw it either around or over an 
eight-story dorm. They died instantly when their car crashed into a wooded area 300 
yards from the road. Most of the other buildings on the campus in the path of the storm were 
made of brick and suffered only minor to moderate damage, such as Denton Hall Dormitory, 
Easton Hall Dormitory and Dining Hall, and the President's Mansion. A parking lot outside of
Denton  Hall full of cars was also hit by the tornado. At least 200 vehicles in the parking 
lot were damaged, including at least 100 that were blown into and onto other vehicles. 
At least twenty cars were totaled and one car was partially ripped apart. The woods 
behind the parking lot were nearly flattened. The bubble roof of the football practice 
facility near Byrd Stadium was removed. Forty-eight people on campus, including 25 
students, were injured by flying debris as the twister downed trees and ripped pieces
of siding and roofing off buildings. In addition, residential areas near the campus,
including the University Courtyard Apartments sustained damage. 

A total of 3000 students were left temporarily homeless after two dorms and an off-campus
housing unit were evacuated due to storm damage. During the recovery effort, a 78-year-old 
firefighter who responded to the tragedy at the University died of a heart attack shortly after 
returning from the scene. The tornado moved north-northeast off the campus and crossed 
University Boulevard at the intersection of Metzerott Road.............

So 9 minutes lead time. Not great but as you state the warning was not specific to the UMD. Given a warning specificity certainly would be a role for the private sector. It is a partnership. Putting out your own warning/alert when the NWS has nothing with a weakening meso is another story. I'd bet money that the LWX warning stats indicate they over warn by a lot. That's not a criticism of LWX but is a reflection of the state of the science. Thanks for posting the warning timing.

[HM]

The other issue is training. I haven't worked for the NWS or Accuwx so anyone who has should certainly chime in; but from what I've gathered, the training the NWS has to go through isn't even comparable. No private weather company should be mimicking NWS warnings or taking that role. If they want to issue forecasts, alerts, statements or something like a warning...sure....but there is something very wrong with the idea that the NWS can be trumped on this level with the public/private sector WRT severe weather warnings.

[HurricaneJosh]

There are some good people and forecasters at Accuweather. However, their management and the way they have dealt with the NWS (trashed them even the forecast for Katrina) in the past makes the tornado alert stand out as an example where they messed up and then instead of acknowledging that it was a bad call (which it was), they and UMD have spun it as a good call because conditions were ripe of such a storm. It may be unfair to be so critical of Accuwx for this error but their spin and past actions suggest little has changed despite Mike Smith's nice words at the Conference. The NWS POD stats are pretty good and they over-warn because only about 20 to 30 percent of meso-lows on radar are associated with tornadoes.

Agreed that there are some good people there. But as an organization, I just think it is the absolute height of sleaze. Their undying mission to discredit the NWS just really, really gets under my skin.

This aside, almost everything they publish Re: tropical-- whether it be a forecast or a post-mortem opinion-- is useless crap: either drama-queen, ratings-driven pronouncements of catastrophe (for impending seasons/events) or after-the-fact exaggerations aimed at making the NHC look bad.

Ugh.

[isohume]

I bet this happens more often than we know, this just happened to be a big client with a lot of people in listening distance.

I don't dislike Accu like some folks around here do. I think competition is good no matter what. But it would be refreshing to see someone from that company honestly assess the situation which appears unlikely.

To be clear, the NWS is not in competition with Accuweather.

The other issue is training. I haven't worked for the NWS or Accuwx so anyone who has should certainly chime in; but from what I've gathered, the training the NWS has to go through isn't even comparable. No private weather company should be mimicking NWS warnings or taking that role. If they want to issue forecasts, alerts, statements or something like a warning...sure....but there is something very wrong with the idea that the NWS can be trumped on this level with the public/private sector WRT severe weather warnings.

The amount of training to become radar proficient is rather extensive in the NWS. It generally begins near the end of your first year and includes a comprehensive in-house training package, which takes about 4-5 weeks to complete, followed by a week of hands-on training at either Norman or Boulder. This gives you the basics and there is always remedial study before the convective season begins. Also, more is always learned from senior forecasters, experience gained through each unique event, case studies, and the latest research provided by SOOs, etc. Basically, the training never stops.

[Ian]

To be clear, the NWS is not in competition with Accuweather.

Not directly.

[isohume]

Not directly.

Serious, we never think of Accuweather, what they're up to or how to out fox them. The only time we think of them is when they get some congressman in their pocket and try to lobby for some asinine anti-NWS legislation.

[HurricaneJosh]

Not directly.

I don't see how or why the NWS would want to compete with an entertainment company.

[Ian]

I don't see how or why the NWS would want to compete with an entertainment company.

Private companies provide more jobs, which provides more incentive, which provides more students. If NWS had no competition and was a national weather monopoly the field would be quite tiny. There is competition among those people... many of the best go to NWS.

Then there are likely many smaller or even innovative type of things that come from ideas outside and built inside.

I doubt everything that's come out of AccuWx is pure entertainment. It's not that black and white.

[HurricaneJosh]

Private companies provide more jobs, which provides more incentive, which provides more students. If NWS had no competition and was a national weather monopoly the field would be quite tiny. There is competition among those people... many of the best go to NWS.

Then there are likely many smaller or even innovative type of things that come from ideas outside and built inside.

I doubt everything that's come out of AccuWx is pure entertainment. It's not that black and white.

Re: tropical cyclones, it's black and white: they are crap and they have no credibility.

Re: tomorrow's high temp, I don't know-- maybe they're amazing.

[isohume]

Private companies provide more jobs, which provides more incentive, which provides more students. If NWS had no competition and was a national weather monopoly the field would be quite tiny. There is competition among those people... many of the best go to NWS.

The NWS is wide open...all our data, resources, etc are free for all to have. It's paid for. Any private agency can and does use our products.The private weather companies are viewed as just another customer not a competition. It'd be hard for a private agency to give us real competition anyway...the Air Force is sorta close as they have their own satellites, research and modeling agencies...but they are not even close to being able to provide the amount of continuous data and services to varied customers that the NWS does. It's an apples and oranges thing.

[HM]

The amount of training to become radar proficient is rather extensive in the NWS. It generally begins near the end of your first year and includes a comprehensive in-house training package, which takes about 4-5 weeks to complete, followed by a week of hands-on training at either Norman or Boulder. This gives you the basics and there is always remedial study before the convective season begins. Also, more is always learned from senior forecasters, experience gained through each unique event, case studies, and the latest research provided by SOOs, etc. Basically, the training never stops.

I was hoping you'd post!

And I agree with your last response to Ian. A comparison cannot be made between the private sector and the NWS.

[Ian]

I was hoping you'd post!

And I agree with your last response to Ian. A comparison cannot be made between the private sector and the NWS.

I think the point I was making is being missed. I'm not comparing NWS to AccuWeather.