ineedsnow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 we now have 97l in the mix either way this should be an interesting week to track everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Snow storm incoming and Ginx is posting in OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Wow, it has a pretty intense vortex dropping in from the arctic to potentially reignite whats moisture is left of the tropical system after the first overrunning wave slides south (the one that gave us snow on the 00z run)...definitely a different evolution. The whole thing may end up pinching off too far south though. But its definitely interesting to watch. Looks to be to little to late this run if we could speed up the vort or slow down the tropical system it would get quite interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Hvy Hvy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks to close off over hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This system has the potential to draw in a boat load of moisture and as we get closer we could really see QPF start to increase...of course would all depend on the evolution of everything but with that tropical system in the Caribbean if timing of that is faster or timing of the coastal is slower there is a major moisture pool to tap into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This system has the potential to draw in a boat load of moisture and as we get closer we could really see QPF start to increase...of course would all depend on the evolution of everything but with that tropical system in the Caribbean if timing of that is faster or timing of the coastal is slower there is a major moisture pool to tap into. Timing is the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 screaming sou'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks to be to little to late this run if we could speed up the vort or slow down the tropical system it would get quite interesting.. Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 screaming sou'easter yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 screaming sou'easter Heavy wind damage...for all of SNE...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. If its good enough for will, I guess its good enough for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. That there is really key going forward, Cold has been showing up pretty steady on these runs and on the ensembles, If we happen to get lucky next week so be it, But there should be plenty of cances for snows if we have cold air around heading into Novie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. post of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Timing is the key Would like to eventually see models consolidate on a stronger, more intense sfc low. Right now (on the GFS at least) the weak low is so strung out. You don't even see much of a LLJ associated with this system...hardly anything in fact. Would also like to possibly see some sort of MLJ streak develop around the base of the trough which would indicate the potential for the trough to sharpen some. I would hate to get something where we get a cold and raw rain event. Nothing is worse than 30's or 40's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 yup I guess, Damaging winds for all of SNE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. Should be colder as well at least for the first part of November. Maybe we can muster up a November snowfall event this year. If that pattern progged in the 190+ HR timeframe on the GFS verifies and sticks through a good chunk of November we could stand a decent chance of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Ahahahahaha! The hammer is going to drop. If not this system one soon. Kevin finally declaring Summer over. Welcome to 5 weeks ago. Ullr will smote you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Given the ridiculous time frame this system is in, just that its still showing up in semi-favorable light is about all we can take from it right now. There will be some cold air available and a system with potential tropical moisture to tap into...whether those two ingredients can line up correctly for us is the question...the fact that both are still there is good enough for me. Its a long shot, but at least it beats tracking whether the high will be 56F or 61F. Regardless of the outcome, it definitely looks a lot colder for the end of the month. yeah the day 6+ verification scores of late have been horrible so all you can really take out of it is at least there's a bit of model agreement that the pattern favors some storminess and a turn toward cooler weather. yesterday's 00z ec had that miller B bomb off the coast for tuesday and that seems to have been a euro pipe dream...and only at day 5/6...nevermind 8/9/10. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Would like to eventually see models consolidate on a stronger, more intense sfc low. Right now (on the GFS at least) the weak low is so strung out. You don't even see much of a LLJ associated with this system...hardly anything in fact. Would also like to possibly see some sort of MLJ streak develop around the base of the trough which would indicate the potential for the trough to sharpen some. I would hate to get something where we get a cold and raw rain event. Nothing is worse than 30's or 40's and rain. Yeah getting the vort to dig further SE to sharpen the trough and maybe capture the Trop system and send it up the coast instead of remaining progressive and forcing it off the Virginia coast into the Atlantic, But its all timing did not happen this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 yeah the day 6+ verification scores of late have been horrible so all you can really take out of it is at least there's a bit of model agreement that the pattern favors some storminess and a turn toward cooler weather. yesterday's 00z ec had that miller B bomb off the coast for tuesday and that seems to have been a euro pipe dream...and only at day 5/6...nevermind 8/9/10. LOL. On this run, we whiff on our shot at 180-192 hours with the tropical system not making the turn in time. Then the huge southeaster comes form that 2nd big ULL digging down through the OH/TN Valley. That 2nd vortex is interesting because if it doesn't dig so far west and pinch off, then it might produce a colder system here...it digs a grave out there and cuts itself off from the cold air source. A more W to E trek would probably add another chance at something. At any rate, its nice to see the pattern getting a bit more active with ULLs diving down from Canada. Even a tropical-fed cold windy rainstorm would be more interesting than what we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 yeah the day 6+ verification scores of late have been horrible so all you can really take out of it is at least there's a bit of model agreement that the pattern favors some storminess and a turn toward cooler weather. yesterday's 00z ec had that miller B bomb off the coast for tuesday and that seems to have been a euro pipe dream...and only at day 5/6...nevermind 8/9/10. LOL. will prolly be back in tonite's 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On this run, we whiff on our shot at 180-192 hours with the tropical system not making the turn in time. Then the huge southeaster comes form that 2nd big ULL digging down through the OH/TN Valley. That 2nd vortex is interesting because if it doesn't dig so far west and pinch off, then it might produce a colder system here...it digs a grave out there and cuts itself off from the cold air source. A more W to E trek would probably add another chance at something. At any rate, its nice to see the pattern getting a bit more active with ULLs diving down from Canada. Even a tropical-fed cold windy rainstorm would be more interesting than what we've had. agree. strongly. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On this run, we whiff on our shot at 180-192 hours with the tropical system not making the turn in time. Then the huge southeaster comes form that 2nd big ULL digging down through the OH/TN Valley. That 2nd vortex is interesting because if it doesn't dig so far west and pinch off, then it might produce a colder system here...it digs a grave out there and cuts itself off from the cold air source. A more W to E trek would probably add another chance at something. At any rate, its nice to see the pattern getting a bit more active with ULLs diving down from Canada. Even a tropical-fed cold windy rainstorm would be more interesting than what we've had. I was just going to comment on that same thing, At least this particular system is more intersesting then having another sou easter with temps in the 80's moving up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 will prolly be back in tonite's 0z run I should be good and hammered by then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 screaming sou'easter Can't be worse than Wednesday. No mas, no mas!!! 53.8/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Can't be worse than Wednesday. No mas, no mas!!! 53.8/40 glad you survived it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I should be good and hammered by then.. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This Euro run would mean 2-3' of blue snow for the lower-eastern cordillera's middle and upper elevations, meanwhile...temp rocketing to 60/60 with driving rain for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This Euro run would mean 2-3' of blue snow for the lower-eastern cordillera's middle and upper elevations, meanwhile...temp rocketing to 60/60 with driving rain for BOS. Probably some convection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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