Baroclinic Zone Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It should be known that it's not impossible at all to get snow in the higher elevations esp. See October 2009 (and in some aspects the pattern looks like october 18 2009), but the tropical connection is what throws a wrench into all of this. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I think it was 2 years ago this week Foxboro had 4" of snow for the Pats game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 No we didn't. Yes we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Not necessarily...I mean it all comes down to track. What I mean is that a euro solution that phases a tropical system and manages to bring snow to parts of New England is a pretty rare thing. Snow occuring in late October isn't necessarily rare, but that euro depiction is. I couldn't even imagine what tropical snows look like.. 4-5"/hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 No we didn't. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On the GFS looks like the trough too starts going negatively tited a bit early which could help keep the storm more towards the coast or pull it inland giving us warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Enough severe talk. We had one severe wx event this summer that one person missed hanging up numbers at a co-ed wheelchair softball game. It's cold and snow season now. ryan's winter snowfall forecast already in peril? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Enough severe talk. We had one severe wx event this summer that one person missed hanging up numbers at a co-ed wheelchair softball game. It's cold and snow season now. ryan's winter snowfall forecast already in peril? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Enough severe talk. We had one severe wx event this summer that one person missed hanging up numbers at a co-ed wheelchair softball game. It's cold and snow season now. ryan's winter snowfall forecast already in peril? That was harsh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Enough severe talk. We had one severe wx event this summer that one person missed hanging up numbers at a co-ed wheelchair softball game. It's cold and snow season now. ryan's winter snowfall forecast already in peril? After I do a little bit of math here I'll tell you whether or not it stunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I couldn't even imagine what tropical snows look like.. 4-5"/hr? It's apples to oranges...doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Yes we did. Once again we had a relatively fun June, and then it sucked the rest of the summer. Different story further up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 After I do a little bit of math here I'll tell you whether or not it stunk. It was a good season for SNE standards...especially earlier on. The June 1 event where you were keepin score at a senior citizens shuffleboard tourney was the best in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It was a good season for SNE standards...especially earlier on. The June 1 event where you were keepin score at a senior citizens shuffleboard tourney was the best in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Wiz is gonna have a looonnngg day ahead of him I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Well I just did CT/MA and as usual Kevin is incorrect. The SPC has a total of 71 severe weather reports for CT confirmed so far in 2011. In 2008 I did a little project compiling all severe weather reports for each Northeast state (13 states) and I broke the data down into two sets; Doppler radar ERA and pre-Doppler radar ERA. Whoever was at the conference in DC that year may remember my lightning talk on this. Anyways from this I calculated what the yearly average for severe weather reports was. For CT the Doppler ERA average for severe weather reports if 57.5 (Doppler ERA data is from 1993-2007...I haven't included 2008-2010 yet). So going by this it was slightly above average for reports. For MA the average is 110 and they have had 149 reports so slightly higher than average in MA which makes sense b/c they actually had more in the way of storms then we did here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 MVY was strangely the severe capitol of SNE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It was a good season for SNE standards...especially earlier on. The June 1 event where you were keepin score at a senior citizens shuffleboard tourney was the best in many years. I can't wait to go to the bar at 3 and forget about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Once again we had a relatively fun June, and then it sucked the rest of the summer. Different story further up in NNE. I take the entire region into consideration so I was including NNE as well as SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Well I just did CT/MA and as usual Kevin is incorrect. The SPC has a total of 71 severe weather reports for CT confirmed so far in 2011. In 2008 I did a little project compiling all severe weather reports for each Northeast state (13 states) and I broke the data down into two sets; Doppler radar ERA and pre-Doppler radar ERA. Whoever was at the conference in DC that year may remember my lightning talk on this. Anyways from this I calculated what the yearly average for severe weather reports was. For CT the Doppler ERA average for severe weather reports if 57.5 (Doppler ERA data is from 1993-2007...I haven't included 2008-2010 yet). So going by this it was slightly above average for reports. For MA the average is 110 and they have had 149 reports so slightly higher than average in MA which makes sense b/c they actually had more in the way of storms then we did here in CT. Every year will see more and more reports. That doesn't mean we had more severe wx, but with technology and ever increasing spotter network..you'll see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Not necessarily...I mean it all comes down to track. What I mean is that a euro solution that phases a tropical system and manages to bring snow to parts of New England is a pretty rare thing. Snow occuring in late October isn't necessarily rare, but that euro depiction is. Wilma in October 2005 comes to mind. Tropical connection brought 2-3 feet of snow to the Greens above 2,000ft in 2005. Killington had like 80 trails opened in late October because of that. It was like 3 feet of paste covering everything. Moisture train up the east coast into barely sub 0C H85 temps. Isothermal 2-4" QPF bomb from like 2,000ft to 5,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Just replace the numbers with 2010-2011 Litchfield says he likes his torch... That map makes me want to do dirty things.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 there were no big organized events except for june... and even that was over a relatively small area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Every year will see more and more reports. That doesn't mean we had more severe wx, but with technology and ever increasing spotter network..you'll see this. Yeah that is a major flaw in this data...when I was working on this I was also going to try to also get skywarn spotter numbers from each NWS station if I could as well as how many reports come via HAM radio and such. Not really sure though how you could really gauge how active a season was or not...go by number of t'storm days I guess? Or days with severe wx reports? This actually would probably be a more accurate depiction of what we're arguing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 there were no big organized events except for june... and even that was over a relatively small area This is true...we never really had a widespread organized event although I think June 1st could be considered not...sure the tornadic activity was confined to MA and a portion of NH. it was more organized from central to northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Yeah that is a major flaw in this data...when I was working on this I was also going to try to also get skywarn spotter numbers from each NWS station if I could as well as how many reports come via HAM radio and such. Not really sure though how you could really gauge how active a season was or not...go by number of t'storm days I guess? Or days with severe wx reports? This actually would probably be a more accurate depiction of what we're arguing about. Well I hate the fact that every termite infested limb that is knocked down gets reported. Tough to get an actual report of svr winds as they either have to hit an ASOS/AWOS perfectly, or someone's Davis mounted near a forest. We know they probably occurred in an area..but it can be tough to get actual verification. Hail is obviously much easier to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Well I just did CT/MA and as usual Kevin is incorrect. The SPC has a total of 71 severe weather reports for CT confirmed so far in 2011. In 2008 I did a little project compiling all severe weather reports for each Northeast state (13 states) and I broke the data down into two sets; Doppler radar ERA and pre-Doppler radar ERA. Whoever was at the conference in DC that year may remember my lightning talk on this. Anyways from this I calculated what the yearly average for severe weather reports was. For CT the Doppler ERA average for severe weather reports if 57.5 (Doppler ERA data is from 1993-2007...I haven't included 2008-2010 yet). So going by this it was slightly above average for reports. For MA the average is 110 and they have had 149 reports so slightly higher than average in MA which makes sense b/c they actually had more in the way of storms then we did here in CT. Total total PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Total total PHAIL Your forecast for 50-55 mph gusts with the last storm was a total total PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Severe weather talk... yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 When do the blow-by-blow accounts of every model run start?? 12z GFS out to hr42, heights are a little more suppressed out west. I think that means it'll show a massive blizzard at day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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